US immigration policy on a collision course with the economy

[rangerrebew]

US immigration policy on a collision course with the economy
By Donald Kerwin, Opinion Contributor — 12/22/18 02:30 PM EST
 
 

Immigration -- the issue the president credits with propelling him to election -- has now become a barrier to sustained economic growth. Falling numbers of undocumented workers – coupled with the administration’s agenda of decreased legal immigration, new impediments to legal status, and indiscriminate deportation policies – have exacerbated labor shortages and will increasingly slow economic growth. In a welcome development, the United States just pledged $5.8 billion in public and private investments to the Northern Triangle states of Central America to promote “institutional reforms, development, and economic growth” and another $4.8 billion to Mexico, including $2 billion in development aid to southern Mexico, as part of a plan to curb illegal migration. This announcement prompted Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to express his hope that “nobody will want to go work in the United States anymore.” If fewer immigrants are coming and more leaving, who will do the work?

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/labor/422607-us-immigration-policy-on-a-collision-course-with-the-economy

[Sanguine]

What "falling numbers"?  The evidence is to the contrary.

[Oceander]

What "falling numbers"?  The evidence is to the contrary.

True enough for now:  https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

However, the data shows interesting fluctuations, so sooner rather than later, the authors statement will be true even if the Trump Maginot Line is not built. 

[Sanguine]

True enough for now:  https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration

However, the data shows interesting fluctuations, so sooner rather than later, the authors statement will be true even if the Trump Maginot Line is not built.

Yes, two years ago the numbers were supposedly falling.  Now, rising rapidly.  Or, at least illegal immigration numbers are way up.  They may not be going into the work force.

[Oceander]

Yes, two years ago the numbers were supposedly falling.  Now, rising rapidly.  Or, at least illegal immigration numbers are way up.  They may not be going into the work force.

They aren’t rising materially faster than they have in the past.  And most of them probably are going into the work force, where they’ve always gone:  farm fields, construction, and landscaping. 

[Sanguine]

They aren’t rising materially faster than they have in the past.  And most of them probably are going into the work force, where they’ve always gone:  farm fields, construction, and landscaping.

And, you know this how?

[Oceander]

And, you know this how?

I know the rise isn’t spectacular based on the numbers I provided you with.

I know where they’ve historically gone, and I have no reason to believe that they aren’t following those historical trends.  Other than agitprop from Trumpy Bear, what do you have that says they are materially deviating from historical norms?

BTW, I also know that most illegals arrive here legally on visitors visas and then overstay.  What’s the wall going to do to stop that?

[Sanguine]

I know the rise isn’t spectacular based on the numbers I provided you with.

I know where they’ve historically gone, and I have no reason to believe that they aren’t following those historical trends.  Other than agitprop from Trumpy Bear, what do you have that says they are materially deviating from historical norms?

BTW, I also know that most illegals arrive here legally on visitors visas and then overstay.  What’s the wall going to do to stop that?

Sorry, but I have no "Trump agitprop".  As I have pointed out before, he's not real big on facts and accuracy.  I get my information from sources that have been shown to be reliable.

[Oceander]

Sorry, but I have no "Trump agitprop".  As I have pointed out before, he's not real big on facts and accuracy.  I get my information from sources that have been shown to be reliable.

So then you must have irrefutable proof that illegals who are crossing from Mexico are materially deviating from their historical patterns.  Right. 

[Sanguine]

So then you must have irrefutable proof that illegals who are crossing from Mexico are materially deviating from their historical patterns.  Right.

Don't get so worked up.  Where did I say or imply "irrefutable"?  And, I should ask you the same thing - let's see your irrefutable proof.

[Oceander]

Don't get so worked up.  Where did I say or imply "irrefutable"?  And, I should ask you the same thing - let's see your irrefutable proof.

Ahh.  So what do you have?

[Cyber Liberty]

One of the bogus arguments I see put out there is "If you can't stop them all, then you can't stop any."  I can hear it right now.

[Oceander]

One of the bogus arguments I see put out there is "If you can't stop them all, then you can't stop any."  I can hear it right now.

Not from me. 

[GtHawk]

Ahh.  So what do you have?

@Sanguine and @Oceander, I sure hope this isn't turning into I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

[Cyber Liberty]

Not from me.

I think that's correct.  But...when the argument about Visa overstays gets conflated with the wall it starts to sound that way.  That is a separate argument, unrelated to whether a wall should be built.

[Oceander]

I think that's correct.  But...when the argument about Visa overstays gets conflated with the wall it starts to sound that way.  That is a separate argument, unrelated to whether a wall should be built.

No, not really.  The fact that most illegals are visa overstays means that there is less reason to build the wall because (a) it won’t do a thing to stop overstays, and (b) it will simply increase the number of overstays.  In short, it’s not a very effective use of billions of dollars in taxpayer money that we can’t afford to just throw away on red meat for some politicians base.

[Frank Cannon]

And, you know this how?

He's a Wetback.

[Cyber Liberty]

No, not really.  The fact that most illegals are visa overstays means that there is less reason to build the wall because (a) it won’t do a thing to stop overstays, and (b) it will simply increase the number of overstays.  In short, it’s not a very effective use of billions of dollars in taxpayer money that we can’t afford to just throw away on red meat for some politicians base.

We didn't have 7,000 Visa overstays trying to rush the border the last couple months.  Conflating the two issues is a non-sequitur.  They require two separate (and necessary) fixes.  The Visa problem requires an act of Congress separate from what's needed to build physical infrastructure like a fence or wall.  Not getting one is not an excuse for failing getting the other.

[Oceander]

We didn't have 7,000 Visa overstays trying to rush the border the last couple months.  Conflating the two issues is a non-sequitur.  They require two separate (and necessary) fixes.  The Visa problem requires an act of Congress separate from what's needed to build physical infrastructure like a fence or wall.  Not getting one is not an excuse for failing getting the other.

No, they have to be considered together in a comprehensive immigration reform. The simpler way of dealing with the caravan is a guest-worker statute coupled with mandatory verification of work authorization - the SSN card should become a national identity card - and harsh penalties going forward for those who employ illegals.  No need for some monstrous waste of money to build a Maginot Line. 

[Sanguine]

@Sanguine and @Oceander, I sure hope this isn't turning into I'll show you mine if you show me yours.

No way.  My argument has been made repeatedly.  But, those who don't want to see it don't.