Author Topic: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis  (Read 19026 times)

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #100 on: November 19, 2018, 09:41:11 pm »
Maybe if our country was more of a meritocracy and actual scientists had more control over matters related to science things wouldn't be so screwed up. I won't give up on the potential government has for expediting technological growth. It's too important.

Too important?  Why?  AGW?
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #101 on: November 19, 2018, 09:43:35 pm »
I'm just glad he shot that car into space.  He did it for "profit."  BFD.

That was huge publicity for Spacex = money. Also Elon is a bit of an egomaniac. The private sector will never spend large sums of money on science when the benefits of are a generation or more away. They're in it for money, which sometimes is AMAZING because there is more of an emphasis on efficiency, but sometimes things worth doing aren't profitable for at least a while.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #102 on: November 19, 2018, 09:45:04 pm »
Too important?  Why?  AGW?

Too important because the progress of humanity is directly linked to its understanding of science. Science and technology gave us every comfort we have. Nothing is more important for the future.
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Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #103 on: November 19, 2018, 09:45:16 pm »
Elon Musk isn't going to do what NASA does (or should do). He's developing things that will make him money. When the goal is money rather than scientific discovery it limits the scope. The government is useful when the benefits of research are a generation away, because no private business is going to spend a bunch of money on that.

I just gave you three examples of private businesses that are doing exactly that, but go on making assertions based on how you feel things would be.
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #104 on: November 19, 2018, 09:46:27 pm »
I just gave you three examples of private businesses that are doing exactly that, but go on making assertions based on how you feel things would be.

How long do you think a company will stay in business if its main motivation isn't making money? No private business is going to take huge monetary losses for the sake of humanity. Not everything should be done and controlled by the private sector.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 09:47:28 pm by Dexter »
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #105 on: November 19, 2018, 09:46:44 pm »
That was huge publicity for Spacex = money. Also Elon is a bit of an egomaniac. The private sector will never spend large sums of money on science when the benefits of are a generation or more away. They're in it for money, which sometimes is AMAZING because there is more of an emphasis on efficiency, but sometimes things worth doing aren't profitable for at least a while.

And Obastard was motivated by charity when he wasted billions on Alt Energy.  Right.

One more time, in case you missed it:  I don't GAF why Musk did it.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #106 on: November 19, 2018, 09:48:03 pm »
Too important because the progress of humanity is directly linked to its understanding of science. Science and technology gave us every comfort we have. Nothing is more important for the future.

And I maintain we should keep science out of the hands of government because politicians.  Nothing is more important for the future.

Your move.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #107 on: November 19, 2018, 09:48:30 pm »
And Obastard was motivated by charity when he wasted billions on Alt Energy.  Right.

One more time, in case you missed it:  I don't GAF why Musk did it.

Obama foolishly wasted money in the wrong places, and what's worse is he managed to turn people like you off to the possibility that the government can do useful things.
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #108 on: November 19, 2018, 09:49:47 pm »
And I maintain we should keep science out of the hands of government because politicians.  Nothing is more important for the future.

Your move.

Your way limits scientific progress. I will never support that, ever.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #109 on: November 19, 2018, 09:52:00 pm »
Obama foolishly wasted money in the wrong places, and what's worse is he managed to turn people like you off to the possibility that the government can do useful things.

No, the best thing the Federal government can do is what it is constitutionally mandated to do, and no more.
Why we are in the dilemma we face now, even with this debate on climate change, is the Federal Government has tried to do more than it should have.
Millions upon millions ($ Trillions $) of examples of this.

Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #110 on: November 19, 2018, 09:52:39 pm »
How long do you think a company will stay in business if its main motivation isn't making money? No private business is going to take huge monetary losses for the sake of humanity. Not everything should be done and controlled by the private sector.

I'd say close to a decade so far for at least one of those three I mentioned.

Maybe you can tell us how we'll never have a cure for polio from the private sector as well?
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #111 on: November 19, 2018, 09:59:24 pm »
I'd say close to a decade so far for at least one of those three I mentioned.

Which of those companies is taking huge losses with no monetary goals for the sake of human progress? Can you give examples of how they are doing that? Also the polio vaccine is not a cure but a prevention, and a lot of people have made a lot of money off of it. I think you either don't understand or are refusing to understand my point. I'm losing interest because we're getting nowhere.
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #112 on: November 19, 2018, 10:05:14 pm »
No, the best thing the Federal government can do is what it is constitutionally mandated to do, and no more.
Why we are in the dilemma we face now, even with this debate on climate change, is the Federal Government has tried to do more than it should have.
Millions upon millions ($ Trillions $) of examples of this.

If the government can use my taxes to help a bunch of dumb/unproductive people then I certainly have no issue with it using taxes to expedite the growth of technology. This is the world we live in. The government takes our shit and it'll never stop. This is a worthy cause though, unlike most others. Maybe instead of helping a bunch of poor Mexicans and overspending on the military we should do something that will actually help humanity. It'll also help America. I want us to be putting the rest of the world to shame. That's my kind of nationalism.
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 10:09:15 pm by Dexter »
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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #113 on: November 19, 2018, 10:05:48 pm »
Your way limits scientific progress. I will never support that, ever.

"Progress" advanced in the name of Socialism isn't progress at all. 

It's elusive, and you are damned right the politicization of science has turned me and just about every other sensible person off to the Idea of having government do it.
For unvaccinated, we are looking at a winter of severe illness and death — if you’re unvaccinated — for themselves, their families, and the hospitals they’ll soon overwhelm. Sloe Joe Biteme 12/16
I will NOT comply.
 
Castillo del Cyber Autonomous Zone ~~~~~>                          :dontfeed:

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #114 on: November 19, 2018, 10:08:17 pm »
"Progress" advanced in the name of Socialism isn't progress at all. 

It's elusive, and you are damned right the politicization of science has turned me and just about every other sensible person off to the Idea of having government do it.

Why not join the group of people that wants to get politics out of science so we can use the government to achieve amazing things that the private sector can't or won't do because it's not profitable for them? If we did it before we can do it again. Would you agree with what I'm suggesting if steps were taken to keep out politics?
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #115 on: November 19, 2018, 10:11:10 pm »
The free market will never undertake research and development, or ANYTHING really, unless it's profitable in the near future, but sometimes things are still worth doing even if they aren't currently profitable. That's where the government can be useful. Exploration comes to mind. What private business is going to pay big money for space exploration they have no way of profiting off of? Thinking everything should be handled by the private sector is short-sighted.
Nonsense. The first Bakken horizontal wells were marginally profitable, and within a few years the changes included switching rigs to top drives, pad wells with walking rigs, vast improvements in MWD/LWD technology, and the batteries to power the tools downhole, and a host of other advancements. You see, being there with better tech, especially game changing tech, is the winner in fast paced, technology dependent markets. It is what makes your company the one to buy the other guys out, instead of the other way around.

For space exploration, there are a couple of companies working on that, the only problem is that the resources necessary to engage in such endeavours are often siphoned off by the government from the private sector.
It depends on how much it costs to do business. A big part of that cost is the government itself.

And, lest we forget, the huge drag on (national) space budgets was the cries of "Why spend that money there when we have problems right here at home?". So we subsidized the problems back here on Earth, and that worked out swimmingly.  By then we had reliable and accurate ICBMs, anyway, and most of the satellite network we wanted....
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 10:12:34 pm by Smokin Joe »
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #116 on: November 19, 2018, 10:13:14 pm »
Which of those companies is taking huge losses with no monetary goals for the sake of human progress? Can you give examples of how they are doing that? Also the polio vaccine is not a cure but a prevention, and a lot of people have made a lot of money off of it. I think you either don't understand or are refusing to understand my point. I'm losing interest because we're getting nowhere.

I get your point.  You think only government can do big things, and therefore any evidence to the contrary must be wrong.

I could give you examples, but you can't (won't?) leave the goal posts in one place.  First it's no business will make long term investments, then it's about money being the main motivation, then it's no monetary goals at all.

And you do understand that the word "cure" can also refer to the elimination of a problem at a population level, it doesn't simply mean eliminating an existing disease from an individual.  Nice try, though.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #117 on: November 19, 2018, 10:16:23 pm »
If the government can use my taxes to help a bunch of dumb/unproductive people then I certainly have no issue with it using taxes to expedite the growth of technology. This is the world we live in. The government takes our shit and it'll never stop. This is a worthy cause though, unlike most others. Maybe instead of helping a bunch of poor Mexicans and overspending on the military we should do something that will actually help humanity. It'll also help America. I want us to be putting the rest of the world to shame. That's my kind of nationalism.

Frankly, I have an issue with both

This is the world we live in. The government takes our shit and it'll never stop

Not by allowing it to do things that are a worthy cause to some.
How did we get here?

Maybe instead of helping a bunch of poor Mexicans and overspending on the military we should do something that will actually help humanity.

There are some people on both sides of the aisle who think these things are a worthy cause, and they are wrong, too, except the constitution does provide for a common defense.




Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #118 on: November 19, 2018, 10:17:39 pm »
I get your point.  You think only government can do big things

No, I think only, or mostly only the government will make huge cost sacrifices to do big things. The private sector isn't going to make huge sacrifices for the advancement of humanity. They're willing to make big investments for the sake of their businesses, but if there's no clear path to making a lot of money then business owners won't be interested.
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Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #119 on: November 19, 2018, 10:19:03 pm »
Frankly, I have an issue with both

This is the world we live in. The government takes our shit and it'll never stop

Not by allowing it to do things that are a worthy cause to some.
How did we get here?

Maybe instead of helping a bunch of poor Mexicans and overspending on the military we should do something that will actually help humanity.

There are some people on both sides of the aisle who think these things are a worthy cause, and they are wrong, too, except the constitution does provide for a common defense.

How is expediting the advancement of technology not a worthy cause? It benefits all of humanity.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #120 on: November 19, 2018, 10:28:20 pm »
How is expediting the advancement of technology not a worthy cause? It benefits all of humanity.



How is not Obamacare and Welfare not a worthy cause? It benefits all of humanity....... :cool:
« Last Edit: November 19, 2018, 10:29:00 pm by GrouchoTex »

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #121 on: November 19, 2018, 10:29:32 pm »
How is not Obamacare and Welfare not a worthy cause? It benefits all of humanity....... :cool:

That's objectively not true. Your comparison doesn't work.
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #122 on: November 19, 2018, 10:34:48 pm »
No, I think only, or mostly only the government will make huge cost sacrifices to do big things. The private sector isn't going to make huge sacrifices for the advancement of humanity. They're willing to make big investments for the sake of their businesses, but if there's no clear path to making a lot of money then business owners won't be interested.
Sure, the government will piss away huge sums without doing much besides feeding those who are involved, and making some rich. Results are nice, but not essential, after all it's all OPM.
In the event results are achieved, cost control isn't exactly first and foremost in the list of priorities.

In the instance of the space race (and the weapons deployment platform race which ran alongside it), I'm not so sure that just national prestige and the advancement of science were number one, so much as the ability to put a warhead where we wanted when we wanted to, which has an intangible benefit, one hard to measure in dollars--even though changing the (surviving) road signs to Russian would have been a mite spendy. So, the world gained (no apocalyptic nuclear war), and money was spent, not just on the devices, but the delivery systems, and we got some neat pics and rocks too. There is a potential long term gain in that, as well, from satellite images of the planet to information on low G environments and even the moon itself (how to land and be able to take off again). That may well come into play down the road on another planet, and likely should have in my lifetime, but time will tell. That doesn't mean a lot of money wasn't wasted, either.

In industry, yes, there has to be some benefit, whether it is immediate (although that can be short sighted) or long term (should a company be willing to make that investment for future returns). Wise companies keep costs from waste controlled (something government is notoriously bad at), and find ways to use off the shelf tech to do a job and refine that.

As another example, hydraulic fracturing as a completion method has been around well over half a century, but the adaptation of that to horizontal wellbores and multistage fracs (and the tools to do it) have been refined significantly, and those developments (continuously being refined) are what is fueling the present oil production in the US, as well as the ability to switch to natural gas for power generation purposes without making that same fuel too expensive for the millions of homeowners who use it for heat and cooking.

Many of those developments were made an experiment or a prototype at a time, until something that performed as desired was developed.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #123 on: November 19, 2018, 10:37:45 pm »
How is expediting the advancement of technology not a worthy cause? It benefits all of humanity.
Actually, technology is a rock. You can build with it, you can shape it into tools or use it as one. You can break it into little bits and extract things from it. Or you can knock your neighbor over the head with it.

It is neither good nor evil, in and of itself, it just is.

Now, how it is used is a different story. Much depends on who wields it.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline Dexter

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Re: After 50 Years Of Failed Predictions, Science Is In Crisis
« Reply #124 on: November 19, 2018, 10:39:58 pm »
Sure, the government will piss away huge sums without doing much besides feeding those who are involved, and making some rich. Results are nice, but not essential, after all it's all OPM.
In the event results are achieved, cost control isn't exactly first and foremost in the list of priorities.

In the instance of the space race (and the weapons deployment platform race which ran alongside it), I'm not so sure that just national prestige and the advancement of science were number one, so much as the ability to put a warhead where we wanted when we wanted to, which has an intangible benefit, one hard to measure in dollars--even though changing the (surviving) road signs to Russian would have been a mite spendy. So, the world gained (no apocalyptic nuclear war), and money was spent, not just on the devices, but the delivery systems, and we got some neat pics and rocks too. There is a potential long term gain in that, as well, from satellite images of the planet to information on low G environments and even the moon itself (how to land and be able to take off again). That may well come into play down the road on another planet, and likely should have in my lifetime, but time will tell. That doesn't mean a lot of money wasn't wasted, either.

In industry, yes, there has to be some benefit, whether it is immediate (although that can be short sighted) or long term (should a company be willing to make that investment for future returns). Wise companies keep costs from waste controlled (something government is notoriously bad at), and find ways to use off the shelf tech to do a job and refine that.

As another example, hydraulic fracturing as a completion method has been around well over half a century, but the adaptation of that to horizontal wellbores and multistage fracs (and the tools to do it) have been refined significantly, and those developments (continuously being refined) are what is fueling the present oil production in the US, as well as the ability to switch to natural gas for power generation purposes without making that same fuel too expensive for the millions of homeowners who use it for heat and cooking.

Many of those developments were made an experiment or a prototype at a time, until something that performed as desired was developed.

Not everything worth doing will turn a profit. Some things won't be profitable for entire generations or more. We can't count on the private sector for that. It's not good business.
"I know one thing, that I know nothing."
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