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Offline mystery-ak

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Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« on: November 06, 2018, 04:50:34 pm »
Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
by Caitlin Yilek
 | November 06, 2018 11:37 AM



The lead for Democrats ticked up in FiveThirtyEight’s final generic ballot poll average before the midterm elections.

Democrats held an 8.5 point lead when the last estimate was calculated Nov. 2. Four days later, they inched up to an 8.7 point lead, with 50.7 percent supporting Democrats and 42 percent supporting Republicans.

“The generic ballot average wound up at D +8.7. That’s *not* a good number for Republicans,” editor in chief Nate Silver tweeted.

more
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nate-silver-fivethirtyeights-final-generic-ballot-average-a-bad-sign-for-gop
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #1 on: November 06, 2018, 04:51:16 pm »
Why is he still counting generic ballots...all the candidates are known..
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Offline musiclady

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2018, 04:53:04 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on November 06, 2018, 04:51:16 pm
Why is he still counting generic ballots...all the candidates are known..

So the Dems come out on top and to try to motivate Dem voters??
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Offline edpc

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2018, 05:02:05 pm »
RCP has the Senate going +2 for the GOP, the House a tossup, and gubernatorial races finishing +7 for Dems, with some of those in important battleground states for 2020.  If there’s a loss of the House, loss of 7 gubernatorial races, and a pickup of 2 Senate seats, after all the campaign stops and rallies, there’s no legitimate way the WH can claim victory.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/2018_elections_governor_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2018, 05:03:07 pm »
Come on. This guy is a clown. He takes flawed polls and tries to extrapolate some sort of truth from them. It's bullshit. That is why this guy has only been right once in 20 years.
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2018, 05:24:19 pm »
Quote from: edpc on November 06, 2018, 05:02:05 pm
RCP has the Senate going +2 for the GOP, the House a tossup, and gubernatorial races finishing +7 for Dems, with some of those in important battleground states for 2020.  If there’s a loss of the House, loss of 7 gubernatorial races, and a pickup of 2 Senate seats, after all the campaign stops and rallies, there’s no legitimate way the WH can claim victory.


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/2018_elections_governor_map_no_toss_ups.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

GOP braces for potential wipeout in governors' races
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/415080-gop-braces-for-potential-wipeout-in-governors-races
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Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2018, 05:40:11 pm »
Preparing for "potential wipeout"

! No longer available
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Offline Formerly Once-Ler

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2018, 09:02:41 pm »
Quote from: edpc on November 06, 2018, 05:02:05 pm
RCP has the Senate going +2 for the GOP, the House a tossup, and gubernatorial races finishing +7 for Dems, with some of those in important battleground states for 2020.  If there’s a loss of the House, loss of 7 gubernatorial races, and a pickup of 2 Senate seats, after all the campaign stops and rallies, there’s no legitimate way the WH can claim victory.
@edpc
So you're saying the WH will claim victory. happy77
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Offline edpc

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2018, 09:06:18 pm »
Quote from: Once-Ler on November 06, 2018, 09:02:41 pm
@edpc
So you're saying the WH will claim victory. happy77


Politico mentioned it, a few days ago.


In public and private, Trump and advisers are pointing to the president’s surge of campaigning on behalf of Republican Senate candidates — 19 rallies alone since Labor Day — as evidence that nobody else could have had a bigger impact in the states. The argument is classic Trump, who despite making the midterms a referendum on his own presidency, has a history of personalizing and then dwelling on his victories while distancing himself and diverting attention from his losses.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/02/trump-2018-elections-plans-957035
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Offline edpc

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2018, 11:44:36 pm »
Drudge siren up saying exit polls show Dem wave building.  We know how unreliable exit polls are since 2004.
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Offline musiclady

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2018, 11:46:37 pm »
Quote from: edpc on November 06, 2018, 11:44:36 pm
Drudge siren up saying exit polls show Dem wave building.  We know how unreliable exit polls are since 2004.

We also know that Dems believe exit polls more than they do actual votes.  **nononono*
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Character still matters.  It always matters.

I wear a mask as an exercise in liberty and love for others.  To see it as an infringement of liberty is to entirely miss the point.  Be kind.

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Use the time God is giving us to seek His will and feel His presence.

Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2018, 11:50:39 pm »
I hate election night..I already have a pit in my stomach..
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Offline edpc

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Re: Nate Silver: FiveThirtyEight's final generic ballot average a bad sign for GOP
« Reply #12 on: November 07, 2018, 12:10:31 am »
Quote from: musiclady on November 06, 2018, 11:46:37 pm
We also know that Dems believe exit polls more than they do actual votes.  **nononono*


Clinton 2016 campaign manager cautions against exit polls: 'They may break your heart'

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/415312-clinton-2016-campaign-manager-cautions-against-exit-polls-they-may-break
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