Sabato: Dems should win House majority, but warns of 11th hour ‘sputtering out’
by Paul Bedard
| November 01, 2018 02:00 PM
The Democrats should win the House majority with room to spare in Tuesday’s elections, but the prognosticator at the University of Virginia is warning that the party could fall flat and short of the needed 23 seat pickup.
The school’s Larry J. Sabato Crystal Ball said Thursday that liberals should add 29 seats, but, “not so many more that one could rule out the Democrats sputtering out short of the majority.â€
And the weekly political report also suggested in another report that President Trump and the GOP could beat back history and keep the House.
“Midterms often feature a decline for the presidential party after a surge in the House in the presidential year. But Republicans enjoyed no surge in 2016, which could limit their decline this year,†said the second report.
“A model based on history and the dynamics of surge and decline suggests Republicans should lose House seats, but they remain well-positioned to hold the House majority. However, certain factors not included in the model, like a new House map in Pennsylvania and a high number of Republican retirements, could cause the model to understate GOP exposure in the House,†it added.
The Crystal Ball also said that the GOP appears to be ahead in two races run by House members under indictment, Reps. Duncan Hunter of California and Chris Collins of New York.
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https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/washington-secrets/sabato-dems-should-win-house-majority-but-warns-of-11th-hour-sputtering-out
