Poll: Stabenow holds 9 point lead in Michigan Senate race

[mystery-ak]

Poll: Stabenow holds 9 point lead in Michigan Senate race
By Brett Samuels - 10/29/18 10:42 AM EDT

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) holds a 9 point lead over challenger John James (R) with a little more than a week left until Election Day, according to a poll released Monday.

An Emerson College poll found Stabenow, leading James 52-43 among likely voters in the state. That margin is a little larger than an Epic-MRA poll last week that showed the incumbent leading by 7 points.

James holds a 49-46 percent edge over Stabenow among men surveyed in Monday's poll. The Democrat maintains a sizable lead — 58-37 percent — among women voters, according to the poll.

Half of those surveyed have a positive view of Stabenow, compared to 39 percent who have an unfavorable view.

James has a 44 percent favorability rating, while 27 percent of voters view him unfavorably.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign-polls/413617-poll-stabenow-holds-9-point-lead-in-michigan-senate-race

[Emjay]

I read this on Fox News:

''Underdog Republican Senate candidate John James appears to be gaining momentum in Michigan, as the latest polls show the political newcomer cutting incumbent Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s once-comfortable lead in half.

James, an Iraq War veteran, is now trailing the incumbent by roughly 7 points, according to the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls.'

James is trending up at the right time.

[Free Vulcan]

This poll is a bit better than the others in terms of demographics, except they still sampling Dems over Reps. The gender ratio was good, though I think their age demos are still off. Racial and region seem ok.

Problem is, Reps are outvoting Dems in the early vote, and the GOP dominates at the polls, yet they keep polling 'blue wave' models.

[Emjay]

This poll is a bit better than the others in terms of demographics, except they still sampling Dems over Reps. The gender ratio was good, though I think their age demos are still off. Racial and region seem ok.

Problem is, Reps are outvoting Dems in the early vote, and the GOP dominates at the polls, yet they keep polling 'blue wave' models.

I hope this poll is wrong.  A great guy is running against this 17 year office holder who has done nothing for people that I know of.

[Free Vulcan]

I hope this poll is wrong.  A great guy is running against this 17 year office holder who has done nothing for people that I know of.

I'm watching the absentees with the GOP killing the Dems, who used to win them 2-to-1. They're not going to make those up at the polls as Dems still don't beat the GOP on election day.

I'm reading where Indies are voting heavier in GOP dominated precincts, and that traditional Dem voting groups aren't turning out.

Starting to wonder where Dems are going to get the votes.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

I'm watching the absentees with the GOP killing the Dems, who used to win them 2-to-1. They're not going to make those up at the polls as Dems still don't beat the GOP on election day.

I'm reading where Indies are voting heavier in GOP dominated precincts, and that traditional Dem voting groups aren't turning out.

Starting to wonder where Dems are going to get the votes.

Trunks, closets, and graveyards if history is any indication.

[Free Vulcan]

Trunks, closets, and graveyards if history is any indication.

Up to maybe a 1/2% is possible. Over that gets hard to not be obvious.

At the rate things are now, alot of these 'tossup' races might be as much as 5% GOP wins.