GOP sees new hope to expand Senate majority

[mystery-ak]

GOP sees new hope to expand Senate majority
By Max Greenwood - 10/10/18 04:42 PM EDT

Republicans are increasingly optimistic about their chances of expanding their narrow Senate majority after the polarizing confirmation battle over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

In the weeks since a series of sexual misconduct allegations were raised against Kavanaugh, the GOP has seen candidates in the Republican strongholds of Texas and Tennessee strengthen their positions, putting possible upset bids by Democrats on hold.

Republicans are increasingly bullish on their chances of gaining a seat in North Dakota, where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) has seen Republican Rep. Kevin Cramer pull ahead in polls. They also believe they can defeat Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) in Missouri. Both Democrats voted against Kavanaugh's confirmation.

“If you look at the polling we’ve seen in the last four or five days, it’s become clear that states like North Dakota and Missouri are moving in the Republicans’ direction,” said Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist.

“Most importantly, the opportunity that existed for Democrats in Tennessee and Texas looks like it's on the way out,” he said.

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/410847-gop-sees-new-hope-to-expand-senate-majority

[massadvj]

Also AZ, MT, IN and FL.  The RCP polls in these states show the Dem ahead, but I find it hard to believe that at least two of them won't turn.

[Free Vulcan]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll end up with 56 in the Senate.

[the_doc]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll end up with 56 in the Senate.

Which Dem Senators are in races that are clearly out of reach for the GOP (for example, races currently suggesting a 20- or 25-point spread for the Dems)?   The reason why I ask that is because I believe the GOP will win every single race that is even (rather) remotely possible for a GOP victory. 

And if that especially optimistic scenario comes true, how many Republicans would we wind up with in the 2019 Senate?

[verga]

BKMK

[Free Vulcan]

Which Dem Senators are in races that are clearly out of reach for the GOP (for example, races currently suggesting a 20- or 25-point spread for the Dems)?   The reason why I ask that is because I believe the GOP will win every single race that is even (rather) remotely possible for a GOP victory. 

And if that especially optimistic scenario comes true, how many Republicans would we wind up with in the 2019 Senate?

Safe Dems, according to RCP are:

CA: Feinstein (D)   CT: Murphy (D)
DE: Carper (D)   HI: Hirono (D)
ME: King (I)   MD: Cardin (D)
MA: Warren (D)   MN1: Klobuchar (D)
NY: Gillibrand (D)WA: Cantwell (D)
VT: Sanders (I)   VA: Kaine (D)
NM: Heinrich (D)   RI: Whitehouse (D)

There are 7 Toss Ups and 4 Leans Dem. Heitkamp's seat in ND is now Lean Rep, and 4 of the Toss Ups are currently Dem seats.

If we ran the table of Toss Ups and Leans Dem we'd have 59.

Remember that say an 10 point lead is only a 5 point swing. Nothing under 15% is really safe at this point, just under a month out.

Linky:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

[the_doc]

Safe Dems, according to RCP are:

There are 7 Toss Ups and 4 Leans Dem. Heitkamp's seat in ND is now Lean Rep, and 4 of the Toss Ups are currently Dem seats.

If we ran the table of Toss Ups and Leans Dem we'd have 59.

Remember that say an 10 point lead is only a 5 point swing. Nothing under 15% is really safe at this point, just under a month out.

Linky:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html

Okay, I say we'll wind up with 62.

(Don't ask me for any detailed reasons for my optimism.  I haven't sorted out such details.)   

[Chosen Daughter]

Okay, I say we'll wind up with 62.

(Don't ask me for any detailed reasons for my optimism.  I haven't sorted out such details.)

I hope you are right.

[Free Vulcan]

Okay, I say we'll wind up with 62.

(Don't ask me for any detailed reasons for my optimism.  I haven't sorted out such details.)

Political momentum is weird. We saw that with Trump. He was surging so fast at the end that the polls couldn't keep up with it. And, he won.

62 is a long shot, but not outside the realm of possibility.

[Fishrrman]

Vulcan wrote:
"I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll end up with 56 in the Senate."

I hope so.
I had figured 54 or maybe 55.

But there's sumthin' I can't quite get:
If Republicans and independents vote for the Republican ticket for Senator (presumably because they are "voting against" the democrat-communists), aren't they going to vote for the Republican ticket for the House, as well...?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Okay, I say we'll wind up with 62.

(Don't ask me for any detailed reasons for my optimism.  I haven't sorted out such details.)

Start selling those chickens on the futures market.

I think the rats will sweep all the open, contested and seats not yet up for election and hold 100 seats.
( Don't ask me for detailed reasons either.)

[Frank Cannon]

Start selling those chickens on the futures market.

I think the rats will sweep all the open, contested and seats not yet up for election and hold 100 seats.
( Don't ask me for detailed reasons either.)

Looking bad for your party these days. I know you had your hopes high on what CNN and PMSLSD were selling, but it doesn't look like it's panning out.

Better luck in 2020. I hear you got Biden coming up to bat......for the 4th time. Might be the charm.

[To-Whose-Benefit?]

@Free Vulcan

Safe Dems, according to RCP are:

Quote

    CA: Feinstein (D)   CT: Murphy (D)
    DE: Carper (D)   HI: Hirono (D)
    ME: King (I)   MD: Cardin (D)
    MA: Warren (D)   MN1: Klobuchar (D)
    NY: Gillibrand (D)WA: Cantwell (D)
    VT: Sanders (I)   VA: Kaine (D)
    NM: Heinrich (D)   RI: Whitehouse (D)

I'd crawl over broken glass to vote against that guy.

[Fishrrman]

To-Whose wrote:
"CT: Murphy (D)
I'd crawl over broken glass to vote against that guy"

I'll be voting against him next month.
But no matter -- he's still gonna win by 15 points.

[Bigun]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we'll end up with 56 in the Senate.

@Free Vulcan

I said 55 months ago and will stick to that but 57 or 58 is not impossible now according to my tea leaf reading.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Looking bad for your party these days. I know you had your hopes high on what CNN and PMSLSD were selling, but it doesn't look like it's panning out.

Better luck in 2020. I hear you got Biden coming up to bat......for the 4th time. Might be the charm.

my party...That joke gets funnier every time you slander me.

[jafo2010]

Republicans hold the House, narrowly, and gain four seats in the Senate.  60 and 62 seats in the Senate and I have to ask, what exactly are you smoking? 

Unfortunately, Trump still will not have a voting majority in the Senate for those things that require 60 votes, and the Democommies are NOT going to end their resistance/abdicative approach to governance.

All one needs to know is that the Democommies will continue to become less relevant, and they will not comprehend that what they are doing is self destructive.  So, in 2020 when Trump wins once more over HRC, and they once again lose more seats, the stage is set for eight years to live life in America without ANY involvement by the Democommies. 

And George Soros can't live forever, and I do not see his children squandering their wealth on anarchy like their father.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

60 and 62 seats in the Senate and I have to ask, what exactly are you smoking? 

@jafo2010
If you quote or ping somebody they know you are talking to them.