Is the red wave happening?
Probably not, no, but you wouldn’t need a red wave to hold the Senate or even to add a few seats. All you’d need is solid turnout in red states.
The latest indicators from YouGov point to solid turnout.
“It’s just one poll,†a skeptic might say, but (a) it’s not just one poll and (b) the pros are detecting a shift in battlegrounds too.
Cook moved Senate races in Montana, Nebraska and New Jersey all in favor of Republicans. Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) faces one of the most competitive race this cycle, which was shifted from “lean Democratic†to “toss-up.†Tester is running against state auditor Matt Rosendale (R) in a state where President Trump won by double-digits in 2016.
Jennifer Duffy, a Senate race analyst at Cook Political Report, said Tester initially looked likely to sail to reelection with a comfortable lead in polling and Rosendale facing a crowded primary. Duffy noted that the fight over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination is energizing the GOP base, though she still gives Tester a slight advantage in the toss-up race.
