Menendez in Jeopardy as Senate Challenger Makes Push

[mystery-ak]

By Adele Malpass
RCP Staff
September 21, 2018

The New Jersey Senate race was supposed to be a done deal with incumbent Bob Menendez easily cruising to re-election. It’s rated solid or likely to remain Democratic by most election watchers, and the Democrats were certainly putting it in their win column as they mapped out plans to retake the Senate.

But someone forgot to tell New Jersey voters that this race was uncompetitive. The polls show it to be tight -- Menendez simply has not shaken Republican challenger Bob Hugin in a state Hillary Clinton carried by 14 points over Donald Trump two years ago.

Part of the reason seems to be that despite his acquittal in court on federal corruption charges, Menendez has not escaped the taint that came with his 2015 trial. Another is that Hugin, the wealthy former CEO of a biopharmaceutical company, had already spent nearly $16 million in the race. Throw into this mix a state with the worst affordability index in the country and an expected increase in the gasoline tax on Oct. 1 -- on top of significant increases in state taxes enacted this spring. It seems a combustible mix in which an attractive and well-funded outsider with a sterling resume can give the political establishment heartburn.

Meanwhile, Menendez has a lot of baggage to defend. In 2015, he was indicted on federal corruption charges pursued by his fellow Democrats -- the first U.S. senator to be indicted by the administration of his own party in 30 years. He was accused of doing favors for Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen, who is now serving 17 years in prison for Medicare fraud. Prosecutors presented evidence of 19 free private plane trips and campaign donations, which they asserted came in exchange for political favors. According to prosecutors, one such trip to the Dominican Republic supposedly involved underage prostitutes. Menendez strongly denied those allegations, but in the  #MeToo era, any lingering suspicion is unhelpful for a politician. And though he was not found guilty by the jury, Menendez was rebuked by the Senate Ethics Committee.

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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2018/09/21/menendez_in_jeopardy_as_senate_challenger_makes_push_138139.html

[Fishrrman]

It may be close, but I expect Menendez to win.

[Emjay]

It may be close, but I expect Menendez to win.

Probably, but ya never know.  I love that it's close.  I would love it even more if this sleazy crook actually lost.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

How does a slimy scum-sucker like Menendez stay in power?

With Donald Trump’s approval rating in the mid-30s in New Jersey, Menendez has made criticizing the president his top priority and accuses Hugin of being a Trump Republican. 

 

[Concerned]

I'll be voting for Hugin but sadly, I expect Mendendez to win rather easily.  Interestingly, here's the latest analysis on the Real Clear Politics polling site:

9/13/18 -- This race is surprisingly close, though perhaps not given Robert Menendez’s ethical troubles. Nevertheless, the last time Menendez looked as though he might be in trouble, the national environment ended up saving him.  And the last time a New Jersey senator looked like he was in trouble, the state Supreme Court saved him.  Menendez is still very much the favorite over Bob Hugin.

The RCP poll average has Menendez up by 8.3 points. 

@Freya

https://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_hugin_vs_menendez-6506.html#polls

[Gefn]

Thanks @Concerned

I’m actually campaigning for Hugin in my spare time, and Kipnis for Congress.

Not that Kipnis has any chance except maybe Hunterdon county, which is still red. The rest of the district is turning blue.

I think the last republican NJ sent to Washington was Clifford Case, and my district was my mentor, Millicent Fenwick. (May they Rest In Peace)

I just can’t stand my congressperson. She’s the most liberal in the whole house.