5 States That Will Decide the House Majority

[mystery-ak]

5 States That Will Decide the House Majority
Watch these states to tell if Democrats are having a good election night
Posted Sep 6, 2018 5:00 AM
Nathan L. Gonzales
@nathanlgonzales

With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.
Minnesota

Competitive races: 5

Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1

The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.

Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.

DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.

On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.

Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.

more
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/five-states-that-will-decide-the-house-majority

[Sanguine]

Minnesota, California, Pennsylvania, New York and  Illinois.

[truth_seeker]

I'm getting ads for Rohrabacher on youtube, and the ads are very hard-hitting.

Dana throws a punch, and I wish more were like him.

[Free Vulcan]

I looked up the districts they mentioned. They all look to be rural or suburbs, or a mix.

The problem for the Dems is that most of the polls are waaayyy undersampling the rural voter, and are off on a number of demographics.

Even with the current scenario, the article acknowledged that Dem blue wave pickups were likely to be not enough to swing control of the chambers.

The article doesn't even deal with GOP pickups in an election where the Dems are defending many more seats in the Senate.