5 States That Will Decide the House Majority
Watch these states to tell if Democrats are having a good election night
Posted Sep 6, 2018 5:00 AM
Nathan L. Gonzales
@nathanlgonzales
With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.
Minnesota
Competitive races: 5
Target Democratic gain for a majority: 1
The Land of 10,000 Lakes is home to five competitive House races, which is remarkable considering there are only eight congressional districts total in Minnesota.
Netting one seat might not sound like a steep climb for Democrats (who are technically part of the state’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), but it would be a significant feat considering they are defending three districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2016.
DFL Rep. Collin C. Peterson is likely to win re-election in the 7th District (rated Likely Democratic), but holding the open 1st and 8th districts (left behind by gubernatorial nominee Rep. Tim Walz and retiring Rep. Rick Nolan, respectively) will be more difficult. Both are rated Toss-ups at this stage, but Democrats might be fortunate to lose just one.
On their offensive map, Democrats are probably struggling to reach a majority if they can’t defeat Republican Rep. Jason Lewis in the 2nd District (Toss-up). But if they can knock off Lewis and GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen in the 3rd District (Tilts Republican), they’ll probably be able to gain a seat out of the state.
Minnesota bottom line: Democrats probably need to gain at least a seat, while breaking even would be a disappointment.
more
https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/five-states-that-will-decide-the-house-majority