Election handicapper moves 10 races toward Dems

[mystery-ak]

Election handicapper moves 10 races toward Dems
By Brett Samuels - 08/23/18 12:13 PM EDT

Election handicapper Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted 10 House races toward Democrats on Thursday, including the election involving recently indicted Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.).

The handicapper moved Hunter’s race in California’s 50th Congressional District from a “safe Republican” seat to “leans Republican.”

The Department of Justice alleged in an indictment Tuesday against Hunter and his wife, Margaret Hunter, that the GOP congressman used campaign funds to purchase trips to Italy and Hawaii, pay for his family's dental work, his children's tuition and international travel for nearly a dozen relatives.

Elsewhere on the map, the Crystal Ball moved races involving Reps. Don Young (R-Alaska) and Pete Olson (R-Texas) from “safe Republican” to “likely Republican.” The forecaster did the same with an open seat in Texas’s 2nd Congressional District.

more
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/403267-election-handicapper-moves-10-races-toward-dems

[Free Vulcan]

Remember that all these projections are based on assumptions that aren't generally true in the midterms:

1) That Dems will outvote Reps, and they will vote Democrat
2) That Indies will vote at twice the rate they generally do, and will break Democrat
3) That women will outvote men
4) That the 18-34 age group will vote at twice or three times the rate they normally do, and vote Democrat
5) The 65+ group, which usually has the highest turnout, will vote at half the rate they normally do
6) Republicans won't turn out at the rate they normally do

If all those hold, it will be a great day for Dems. Problem is there isn't alot of historical precedent that it will, not even '06, beyond the fact that the GOP didn't turn out well that year.