House Democrats Lead Republicans By A Large Margin

[mystery-ak]

House Democrats Lead Republicans By A Large Margin
4:49 PM 07/25/2018
Robert Donachie | Capitol Hill and Health Care Reporter

House Democrats are ahead of Republicans 12 percentage points in the lead-up to the November midterm elections, according to a Wednesday Quinnipiac University poll.

If the November midterm elections were held in July, 51 percent of voters say they would vote for a Democrat, compared to 39 percent that would vote for Republicans.

The divide is large among male and female voters. With an almost 2 to 1 backing, women throw their support behind Democrats 57 percent to 32 percent. Men are more evenly divided on whether they would support a Republican or Democrat in November. Roughly 46 percent of men would vote for a Republican and 46 percent would support a Democrat.

Along racial lines, white and black voters draw a stark contrast. White voters are nearly even split, with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go 78 percent for Democrats and 66 percent of Hispanic voters back Democrats.

more
http://dailycaller.com/2018/07/25/house-democrats-republicans-large-margin/

[bilo]

When I first saw this swing back to the Rats I began to get nervous. After all the Rats are lunatic socialists, but what exactly has the Pub majority in the House done to deserve to continue to be the majority.

We had a national election and the candidate that won was very clear about what he wanted to do. Ending obamacare, nope it's still on the books and can be resurrected by a Rat President. Build a wall and reform immigration, nope nothing outside of executive action has been done. Tax cuts and tax reform, yes on a temporary basis. Reforming govt and ending the power of the deep state, absolutely nothing has been done.

With a track record like that why keep them around?

[cato potatoe]

When I first saw this swing back to the Rats I began to get nervous. After all the Rats are lunatic socialists, but what exactly has the Pub majority in the House done to deserve to continue to be the majority.

We had a national election and the candidate that won was very clear about what he wanted to do. Ending obamacare, nope it's still on the books and can be resurrected by a Rat President. Build a wall and reform immigration, nope nothing outside of executive action has been done. Tax cuts and tax reform, yes on a temporary basis. Reforming govt and ending the power of the deep state, absolutely nothing has been done.

With a track record like that why keep them around?

I worry about what Trump will do if the Democrats regain control.  He is liable to blame the conservative wing instead of taking responsibility for his party's unpopularity.  Then he may swing wildly to the left (a la Schwarzenegger) and sign the crap passed through a Democrat congress in order to claim a WIN.

[bilo]

I worry about what Trump will do if the Democrats regain control. He is liable to blame the conservative wing instead of taking responsibility for his party's unpopularity.  Then he may swing wildly to the left (a la Schwarzenegger) and sign the crap passed through a Democrat congress in order to claim a WIN.

This is why the Pubs are in such deep trouble. It's not Trump, or the conservatives, that have failed it's the liberal Pubs.

[Bigun]

Polls

[austingirl]

Fun with numbers. We all know how accurate the polls are.

[Wingnut]

Fun with numbers. We all know how accurate the polls are.

Next week different poll with different results.   Pick the one that floats your boat. 

Right now I don't care.  I was polled last month.  I lied on almost every question.

[jmyrlefuller]

Generic ballot that doesn't take into account individual districts? Riiight…

[edpc]

If the November midterm elections were held in July.....


Well, they won't be.  A lot of things can happen in four months.

[libertybele]

I worry about what Trump will do if the Democrats regain control.  He is liable to blame the conservative wing instead of taking responsibility for his party's unpopularity.  Then he may swing wildly to the left (a la Schwarzenegger) and sign the crap passed through a Democrat congress in order to claim a WIN.

You and I both fear the same thing with Trump.  Not so much that he needs to win, but I think he's going to negotiate with the party in power.The idiots in the House have had ample opportunity to help this President move our country forward and because of their disdain for the man; they opted to try to derail his presidency; these same people I believe were counting on a Hillary win. The failure of the GOP to take the reigns of the majority and run with it, isn't Trump's fault; they failed to come together as a united front.  They failed to keep the promises made; especially Ryan. God help us if the GOP House loses their majority.  I'm not so sure that they will retain the Senate majority either. 

The first thing I believe they will try to do is impeach Trump; and it will go downhill from that point forward.  They will push for blanket amnesty, gun control, single payer health care, and increase refugee migration.

[GtHawk]

If the November midterm elections were held in July.....


Well, they won't be.  A lot of things can happen in four months.

Four more months of intelligent? discourse from Pelosi, Waters, Schumer, Warren, Clinton, Et Al? Oh yeah, a lot can happen.

[Free Vulcan]

This RDD telephone survey was conducted from July 18 – 23

2018 throughout the nation. Responses are reported for 1,177 self-identified registered voters with a margin of sampling error of +/3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Margins of sampling error for subgroups are available upon request.

Surveys are conducted in English or Spanish dependent on respondent preference with live interviewers calling land lines and cell phones.

All data was collected and tabulated by the Quinnipiac University Poll.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING
-
Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?

REGISTERED VOTERS PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Republican 25%
Democrat   31%
Independent 38%
Other/DK/NA  7%

Hate to tell Quinnipiac, but these aren't the percentages in how party ID votes.

[cato potatoe]

Well, they won't be.  A lot of things can happen in four months.

I hope a lot of changes happen.  Republicans are happy, but the independents seem to be driving these polls.  Republican House candidates won independents 51-45 in the last election, and now it's a larger disparity in the opposite direction.  Trump's approval ratings are somewhat worse than Obama in 2010 and Bill Clinton in 1994, and somewhat better than Obama in 2014 and Bush in 2006.  History would suggest he needs to bring his approval over 50% to avoid a mess in the off year.

[cato potatoe]

Hate to tell Quinnipiac, but these aren't the percentages in how party ID votes.

That could be why they are outliers.  2016 turnout was 36D-33R-31I.  If you weight the groups in the same fashion, the Dems only have a 7.7% advantage ... alarming, but manageable at this point.

[edpc]

That could be why they are outliers.  2016 turnout was 36D-33R-31I.  If you weight the groups in the same fashion, the Dems only have a 7.7% advantage ... alarming, but manageable at this point.

How.does it compare to 2014 turnout?  Wouldn't midterm comparisons be more accurate?

[Free Vulcan]

That could be why they are outliers.  2016 turnout was 36D-33R-31I.  If you weight the groups in the same fashion, the Dems only have a 7.7% advantage ... alarming, but manageable at this point.

In the mid-terms, the GOP tends to outvote Dems by 10%, and nearly double Indies. Men also tend outvote women. 50+ tends to swamp younger voters.

Plus these are registereds, not likelys, so it's even more bogus.

[cato potatoe]

How.does it compare to 2014 turnout?  Wouldn't midterm comparisons be more accurate?

2014 was R+1.  Maybe the same people can be motivated to turn out.  Who knows - it's tough to see through the media histrionics.  Independents are the big question mark.  Turnout was only D+2 in 2006, but Republicans got smoked because they lost independents by 18.

[Applewood]

I don't trust polls, but there is a congressional race locally where the Dem is leading the Republican incumbent in the polls.  Now this particular race may have more to do with personalities -the Republican has all the charm of a doorknob, while the Democrat is young, charming and lively -- and less to do with the Trump presidency and the so-called "blue wave."  As with Trump, people locally are attracted to the big shiny object.  Not really sure the voters are focused on the issues.