Democratic Senate candidates are leading in three key battleground states as the party looks to defend a difficult map ahead of the November midterm elections, according to new polls.
Arizona Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) are both leading their GOP challengers by double digits, while Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D) is up by just 4 points, about the margin of error in the new NBC News/Marist polls released Tuesday evening.
The results show how some of the major Senate races this cycle are shaping up with less than five months until Election Day.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/394276-polls-dems-lead-in-three-key-senate-races------------
I looked at their sampling, what gives the Dems the supposed lead is the Indies, which they have breaking hard Dem.
Two problems:
1) Indies don't vote for crap in the mid-terms, usually at only about 60% of party voters. They outsampled Indies over both Dems and Reps by quite a bit.
2) Reps tend to outvote Dems in the mid-terms, while they have Dems slightly outvoting Reps.
It's hard to see how this sampling would reflect the ballot box given past performance in the mid-terms.
