Poll: Manchin Leads Morrisey by 13 in West Virginia Senate Race

[Free Vulcan]

A poll released on Friday exclusively to Breitbart News by Gravis Marketing shows Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) currently leads the Republican party’s nominee, State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent,  in a head-to-head match up for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia five months before the November general election.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/25/poll-manchin-leads-morrisey-by-13-in-west-virginia-senate-race/

[WingNot]

The only way he loses is if they catch him in bed with a 13 y/o boy.

[mountaineer]

Polls, predictions for Manchin-Morrisey
Hoppy's Commentary | May 24, 2018 at 12:58AM

Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Manchin’s campaign has released polling showing him eight points ahead of Republican challenger Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.  The poll has Manchin at 50 percent and Morrisey at 42 percent.

The poll was conducted by GlobalStrategyGroup and Jefrey Pollock, Manchin’s longtime pollster. They interviewed 600 voters by land lines and cell phones between May 13-16. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

The poll has Manchin’s favorables at 51 percent, while his unfavorables are at 44 percent. That’s a little close for comfort.   ... 

Now, in fairness, Republican pollster WPA Intelligence released a survey two days after the Primary showing Morrisey ahead of Manchin 46 percent to 44 percent.  WPAI surveyed 400 likely voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

There’s more good news for Morrisey in that poll.  It shows that 59 percent of Independents would vote for Morrisey compared with 28 percent for Manchin.  The survey also found that 64 percent of Republicans and 63 percent of Independents believe it’s time for a new person to represent them in the Senate.

Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections all have the Manchin-Morrisey race as a toss-up.  Rest of article

[Hoodat]

About that poll showing a candidate up 29 points — before he lost by 67

By Callum Borchers     |     May 2, 2016

Political junkies have been yukking it up since last Tuesday over a Gravis Marketing poll that got a Maryland congressional race wrong by 96 — yes, 96 — percentage points. The Gravis survey, conducted in January, showed primary challenger Michael Smigiel leading Rep. Andy Harris by 29 percentage points in their Republican primary contest; Smigiel actually lost by 67 percentage points, 78 percent to 11 percent.

We all know polls aren't perfect (remember the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan?), but the margin of error in this case was truly exceptional. It was conducted three months before primary day, yes, but there's just no way it was even close to accurate at the time. Smigiel is a former Maryland state delegate, but he was never more than an underfunded long-shot who was going to get trounced by an incumbent; the $1,900 he paid Gravis to conduct the survey for him was one-tenth of his entire campaign spending. Harris spent about 15 times more than Smigiel.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/the-pollster-who-showed-a-candidate-up-29-points-before-he-lost-by-67


So how much did Manchin pay for this 'poll'?

[mountaineer]

An 8 point lead (only)  in his own bought &paid for poll may not be a good sign for ol'Joe.