About that poll showing a candidate up 29 points — before he lost by 67
By Callum Borchers | May 2, 2016Political junkies have been yukking it up since last Tuesday over a Gravis Marketing poll that got a Maryland congressional race wrong by 96 — yes, 96 — percentage points. The Gravis survey, conducted in January, showed primary challenger Michael Smigiel leading Rep. Andy Harris by 29 percentage points in their Republican primary contest; Smigiel actually lost by 67 percentage points, 78 percent to 11 percent.
We all know polls aren't perfect (remember the Democratic presidential primary in Michigan?), but the margin of error in this case was truly exceptional. It was conducted three months before primary day, yes, but there's just no way it was even close to accurate at the time. Smigiel is a former Maryland state delegate, but he was never more than an underfunded long-shot who was going to get trounced by an incumbent; the $1,900 he paid Gravis to conduct the survey for him was one-tenth of his entire campaign spending. Harris spent about 15 times more than Smigiel.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/02/the-pollster-who-showed-a-candidate-up-29-points-before-he-lost-by-67
So how much did Manchin pay for this 'poll'?