Rating Change: Special Election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Moves to Toss-Up

[Formerly Once-Ler]

https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/rating-change-special-election-pennsylvanias-18th-moves-toss/?utm_source=just-in&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletters

With two weeks left before the March 13 special election, that’s exactly the scenario that is playing out.

Republicans have spent nearly two months attacking Democrat Conor Lamb with television ads, but he’s not only still standing but well-positioned to take over a GOP seat in western Pennsylvania that President Donald Trump carried by 20 points in 2016 and Mitt Romney by 17 points in 2012.

State Rep. Rick Saccone, the GOP nominee, doesn’t have the baggage that Republican Roy Moore brought to the Alabama Senate special election last year, but he is a stark contrast to the younger, more telegenic Democrat and has proved to be a mediocre fundraiser.

Outside groups are often best at attacking opponents (which is what GOP outside groups are doing to Lamb) while candidates are often tasked with defining and defending themselves. But Saccone hasn’t had the resources to do that (particularly compared to Lamb), leaving him exposed to Democratic attacks and leaving a disproportionate number of Trump supporters on the sidelines. The president remains relatively popular in the area but it’s not translating into support for Saccone.

We’re changing our Inside Elections rating from Leans Republican to Toss-Up.

More at link

[edpc]

Which district map are they using for this election?

[WingNot]

Which district map are they using for this election?

Don't the courts in @Frank Cannon state draw the maps?   

[Frank Cannon]

Which district map are they using for this election?

As of now it is the court drawn Rat heavy map. That alone would screw the GOP out of this district because it adds votes from Liberal Pitt when this should be a suburban/rural district.