Leftover Discussion Thread: AL Special Election

[Free Vulcan]

Only 40% total turnout in the election, that means 60% didn't even show up to vote.

You realize that 40% turnout in an off year special election in December is nearly unprecedented?

[TomSea]

Moore also had his own charity paying him and his wife over $1,000,000, he ran in 2011 and even without the accusations, won only 52% to 48%.

For as much as he dominated the primary, Moore squeaked by Robert Vance with 52% of the general election votes.
http://www.al.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/05/weve_seen_this_senate_election.html

Also, for how much one talks about these "write-in" voters, there were many who wanted the GOP, even Trump to help instigate actions so Moore would step aside. The Alabama tried to quell talk of a write-in campaign, but maybe they shouldn't have.

It's clear looking at all of this, Moore is not considered all that strong of a candidate.

[TomSea]

You realize that 40% turnout in an off year special election in December is nearly unprecedented?

Good, yes, this is a non-presidential election year. We have heard this. Why were the Democrats able to get it right? One can say some funding was pulled, that doesn't necessarily stop someone from campaigning though.

[Frank Cannon]

And what would have been a plausible denial beyond "I didn't molest that girl....

Not going on to say that he has fuzzy memories of all the other teen chicks he was "dating" in his 30's.

Roy's a shitbag. Most of the country thinks so. A hell of a lot of solid right wing voters in AL think so. Who are you trying to convince that he is such a great dude here? Yourself? Elections over. He will forever be known as the teen dating 3 time loser.

BTW I can't find any hint that dirty Roy filed anything but his fingernails.....

https://www.google.com/search?q=Roy+Moore+lawsuit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b

[Frank Cannon]

You realize that 40% turnout in an off year special election in December is nearly unprecedented?

Really? How many of those have happened in AL over the years that we can compare it with?

[DiogenesLamp]

And of course this has nothing to do with anything. 





https://pjmedia.com/video/bill-oreilly-theres-audio-someone-trying-bribe-woman-accuse-trump-untoward-behavior/

[edpc]

You know we just found out that was a manufactured story......from Fusion GPS, right?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-12/fusion-gps-tried-and-failed-link-trump-jeffrey-epstein

Yes, but I was responding to this a few pages back......

No they didn't,  but even had they done so,   It's still a far cry from calling him a child molester and a rapist.   

Trump wouldn't have survived that.


The campaign issued a statement and the story went away soon after.

The Trump presidential campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the forthcoming court proceedings. A lawyer for the Trump Organization told the Guardian in July: “This is basically a sham lawsuit brought by someone who desires to impact the presidential election.”

My point in bringing it up was to demonstrate how AL voters heard similar stories about R candidates over the past year.

[DiogenesLamp]

Moore also had his own charity paying him and his wife over $1,000,000, he ran in 2011 and even without the accusations, won only 52% to 48%.

Most elections throughout history are in this range.   This is normal. 

It's clear looking at all of this, Moore is not considered all that strong of a candidate.

And once again,  this theory is heavily contradicted by the available poll evidence leading up to the accusations.   Moore was 15% ahead prior to these accusations. 

[TomSea]

2011 wasn't an election year, I know this is brought up whenever an election happens. I though GOP actually did better in Mid-Terms.

[TomSea]

Politics is dirty, I forget who but some candidate was saying Carson was dropping out in Iowa and Rubio in Hawaii. There is a lot of this going on.

[jmyrlefuller]

@DiogenesLamp

Silly females.

Face it, the only people whose chirps mattered chirped by writing in someone besides the two train wrecks running.

Which should have forced a runoff since it dropped Jones under 50%. But it didn't. Why?

[TomSea]

Most elections throughout history are in this range.   This is normal. 




And once again,  this theory is heavily contradicted by the available poll evidence leading up to the accusations.   Moore was 15% ahead prior to these accusations.

I agree with all of this, still, if Bannon was involved early on, that's a factor too. He was able to shepherd up his troops.

[Silver Pines]

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,294796.new.html#new

Judging @Frank Cannon

[edpc]

Which should have forced a runoff since it dropped Jones under 50%. But it didn't. Why?

That's in the primary, but not the general.

[Silver Pines]

   @CatherineofAragon   NO MOD input is required, if that were the case I'd never get polls published.   The KEY is to click on 'NEW POLL' at the top instead of 'NEW TOPIC'.  Please feel free to contact me if you have any more questions.

@corbe

I can't believe I was dumb enough not to see that button.  Thanks, corbe.

[DiogenesLamp]

Not going on to say that he has fuzzy memories of all the other teen chicks he was "dating" in his 30's.

I have pointed out here previously and elsewhere the social dynamics at work in the Hannity interview. 


The accusations of Moore dating teenagers was bundled together with the accusation that he molested an underaged girl in such a manner as to reinforce the larger lie.    Admission of dating teenagers would have been seen as evidence that the rest of the claim was also true,  and Moore didn't realize what trap in which he was caught until it was too late for him to give an optimal response.   

(Admit dating teenagers, forcefully deny molesting the girl.)   

If you know anything of the art of lying (and I suspect you do)  you will be aware that the efficacy of a lie is dramatically increased by mixing a great deal of truth with it.   The media stooges that set up this trap deliberately conflated the dating of six other girls with the claimed molestation of the one,   and set up the premise in the public mind that admission of one was tantamount to the admission of the other.   

This was the premise under which Hannity started his interview,  and Moore was completely taken aback by it.   

Roy's a shitbag.

Why don't you just stop beating around the bush and tell us all how you really feel?   Stop pulling your punches and just admit that so far as you are concerned,  Roy Moore is a "Witch!"   

Most of the country thinks so.

Most of it that the broadcasting apparatus reaches anyway.    I'm sure the two things are completely unconnected. 

BTW I can't find any hint that dirty Roy filed anything but his fingernails.....

https://www.google.com/search?q=Roy+Moore+lawsuit&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b

I don't find anything either,   but I know I distinctly saw something on the topic Monday either here or over at Free Republic.    Not sure there is any way a court could grant relief,   because libel laws usually don't cover lies told about public persons.   The defendants are likely poor,  and so he could get no recompense of any sort from them,   and the vile Washington Post is going to claim they just "reported"  the story,  and so thereby shirk any liability. 

Gloria Allred would seem about the only person from whom any revenge could be extracted,  but she may have protected herself by making the accusations in New York,  and thereby falling under a friendly jurisdiction. 

[DiogenesLamp]

And now I feel sort of stupid for wasting so much reasoned argument on someone who has clearly demonstrated that they are emotionally driven.   

[Hoodat]

And i'm pretty sure that the three named witnesses that came forward to claim that they never saw Roy Moore in "the old Hickory House"  in 1977,   were never put on the air.   The very fact that there were such people refuting the claim was never put on the air. 

They certainly were never put in a Moore campaign commercial or invited to a Moore campaign stop.

[DiogenesLamp]

They certainly were never put in a Moore campaign commercial or invited to a Moore campaign stop.

That one woman didn't want to come forward at all,  but finally decided it was the right thing to do.  She was reluctant anyways.   They did provide names and statements,  and that should have been sufficient for a real media to report that the claims of Beverly Nelson were being disputed by three witnesses. 


Dragging these people along to campaign stops was not a reasonable idea.   People have lives of their own,  and how many can just suspend what they are doing for the purpose of becoming a stage prop? 

[Hoodat]

That one woman didn't want to come forward at all,  but finally decided it was the right thing to do.  She was reluctant anyways.   They did provide names and statements,  and that should have been sufficient for a real media to report that the claims of Beverly Nelson were being disputed by three witnesses.

It is not the press' job to help the Moore campaign.  It is his job to adequately defend his job, his past, and lay out his plan for the future.  And in that regard, Moore failed miserably.

Dragging these people along to campaign stops was not a reasonable idea.

What campaign stops?  Seriously.

[Smokin Joe]

Yes, but.... the rats are counting on major wins next year due to voter anger at the GOP for their failures.... namely to repeal Obamacare and probably also for their failure to pass tax cuts (it hasn't passed YET).  More folks have turned off to and tuned out to the GOP this year than ever.  The rats have a very good chance of regaining the House next year due to that, I think.

With the GOP not only throwing Moore to the Wolves, but participating in that dog pack at the drop of a hat--lending credence to the attack on his Conservative credentials instead of fighting it, it is apparent they want nothing to do with Conservatives. I predict an exodus from the Party, one which has been a trickle but will grow until Conservatives are gone. It is up to Conservatives to create or build another Party and provide the people and alternatives to Liberal same ol' same ol' that we have seen since the TEA party movement rocked the elections.
Energizing that base and invigorating them with the right candidates is key, and must be done in spite of the MSM.

[Smokin Joe]

Alabama is a conservative state.   It was impossible for Jones to win without "conservatives"  going over to the other side.   

Or just staying home. The write in vote would have won the election, so I see that candidacy as a spoiler. Think Kasich staying in too long. Maybe he thought Moore would fold, I don't know,  but the effect was the same.

[DiogenesLamp]

Or just staying home. The write in vote would have won the election, so I see that candidacy as a spoiler. Think Kasich staying in too long. Maybe he thought Moore would fold, I don't know,  but the effect was the same.

Shelby and other GOP traitor-rats,  are who we have to thank for stimulating the stay at homes and write in votes. 

[Smokin Joe]

All Moore was going to do in DC was to vote on stuff, especially on Trump's SCOTUS picks.

No, McConnel wasn't afraid of that in the least. If Moore was suspected to only be a plac3eholder and a secure vote, Mitch wouldn't have been so hasty to attack. I seriously believe that Mitch was afraid Moore would get an eyefull of 'bidness as usual' on the Hill and expose it. That's why Moore was so soundly attacked by both sides, and the allegations were just an excuse.

In other matters, has Franken resigned yet?....

[Smokin Joe]

That is hand waving.   That is a "fact"  not in evidence.   Just how do you defend a man against accusations that he dropped an investigation in exchange for a Senate appointment?   
Especially since the governor in question did ACTUALLY resign and is considered "dirty".   


All the media has to do is keep repeating it,  and the usually suspects around here (and elsewhere)  would say "we can't support this deeply flawed candidate."   




I think pointing out numerous past examples where this same tactic has been employed to cause a loss is pretty good evidence that it would once again be employed and would have likely been successful in this last election.

The Seven mistress allegations against Cruz were timed to hit the endcaps in the grocery stores about the same time as the Bible Belt primaries, and it was effective in costing Cruz, so it has worked before. This is just the first time I have seen both Parties use the same tactic to attack a candidate together.