6 Scenarios For GOP Disaster In Roy Moore Senate Race
Byron York
11/22/2017 12:01:00 AM -
"Given the unusual circumstances and very unusual personality involved, it's hard to see this working out well," one laconic Republican lawmaker said recently of the Roy Moore situation. The Alabama Senate race is shaping up as a catastrophe for the GOP, regardless of how it works out. But just how big a catastrophe? Here are six scenarios:
1) Moore withdraws from the race. That's the dream of many in the GOP. Under that scenario, a Republican write-in candidate would then be able to keep the GOP seat in one of the nation's reddest states. But there's a problem: Even if Moore quit today, his name would remain on the Dec. 12 ballot. And if Moore stays on the ballot, even after having withdrawn, he will likely still get a lot of votes. "Candidates typically retain somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 percent to 25 percent of their pre-withdrawal polling average if they quit a race but their names still appear on the ballot," 538's Nate Silver wrote recently. That seems particularly likely to be true in Alabama, given the devotion of Moore's following. So would a GOP write-in be able to defeat Democrat Doug Jones in what would amount to a three-candidate race, with Republicans divided between Moore and the write-in? Unlikely.
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https://townhall.com/columnists/byronyork/2017/11/22/6-scenarios-for-gop-disaster-in-roy-moore-senate-race-n2412586
