From what I've seen in the media, the ad revenue for the game goes something like this: There are assumed ratings for the games, which makes the basis points for the TV contracts the advertiser purchase. In recent weeks, I've seen media reports that the advertisers (to either the companies or the advertising syndicates) have been paying refunds because the ratings weren't up to expectations. To me, this makes the cash value of the ads a "lagging indicator" of the actual ratings.
That means the boastful "North of $5M" numbers being touted for this next year's Super Bowl are just pie in the sky that may or may not be realized, depending on the actual viewer ratings. It's bass-ackwards to say the ratings are up because ad revenues are up.
@Cyber Liberty Did someone say ratings are up because ad revenues are up?
It isn't in Comcast's best interest to set shareholder expectations about ad revenue with "pie in the sky" numbers only to disappoint them later. If these boycotts are having such a significant effect on ratings, I'd expect that to be reflected in, what you call, the "assumed ratings".
Is viewership down? Yes, slightly from the data I’ve seen: down this year about 7% compared to last year. If it were really significantly down, I would expect to see rates for the upcoming Super Bowl to reflect the effect of these boycotts in the "assumed ratings" yet that doesn’t seem to be the case.
As I mentioned before, the owners each got over $220M in TV contract revenue in 2014. If ad rates for the Super Bowl aren’t going down (in fact, their up), how much should we expect the next TV contracts (and the associated money to be split among the owners) to go down? Down 7% (to reflect the decrease in viewership this year? 10%? 30%? 50%? If future TV contract revenues are down 50% (which is nonsensical to me), the owners “only” would receive, as their share, a little over $100M per team (using 2014 as a guide). I doubt that would significantly impact the number of Lamborghini’s they have in their garages.
I know some people want these boycotts to have a devastating impact on the NFL, but my real point is that until it’s reflected in a significant change in the economics of the league, which I don’t anticipate, it’s largely just some anecdotal stories to make some people feel better. JMO.
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2017/11/02/nfl-ratings-fall-second-year/107282008/