BY: MICHAEL J. ZAGUREK JR.
At various times over the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump and other members of his administration have threatened to use military force to prevent North Korea from conducting additional nuclear or ballistic missile tests. The US carrying out any military option raises a significant risk of military escalation by the North, including the use of nuclear weapons against South Korea and Japan. According to the calculations presented below, if the “unthinkable” happened, nuclear detonations over Seoul and Tokyo with North Korea’s current estimated weapon yields could result in as many as 2.1 million fatalities and 7.7 million injuries.
Background
Since 2011, North Korea has conducted 98 ballistic missile tests, which have resulted in more capable missiles, larger payloads, longer ranges and presumably increased reliability. During the same period, they conducted four underground nuclear weapons tests [2] [3], the most recent on September 3. On July 4 and July 28, 2017, North Korea tested for the first time, an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM), capable of reaching most of the USA [4]. Expert analysis suggests that the North has the capability to arm ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads and has a baseline nuclear arsenal estimated at around 20 to 25 nuclear warheads with yields in the 15-25 kiloton range [5]. The September 3 nuclear test was likely a thermonuclear device with estimated yields between 108 and 250 kilotons [3], suggesting that North Korea’s nuclear arsenal could eventually be upgraded to consist of larger yield thermonuclear weapons.
The goal of the North Korean regime seems to be ensuring the continuation of the Kim family rule by having a viable nuclear deterrent capability against the United States [6]. However, North Korea’s continued missile development and nuclear capabilities are perceived as “provocative and destabilizing” and posing a significant security threat to US allies—South Korea and Japan—US assets in the Asian theatre and the US homeland [6]. Multiple sanctions imposed on North Korea by the United Nations, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and the European Union have not deterred the North from further WMD development [7], despite growing condemnation from the international community. Even China, traditionally North Korea’s staunchest ally and primary trading partner, has criticized North Korea’s continuing nuclear weapon and missile development programs, reduced some trade with North Korea, and has made it clear that if a conflict should break out on the Korean Peninsula that North Korea is “on its own.” [8]
http://www.38north.org/2017/10/mzagurek100417/
