Author Topic: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay  (Read 99522 times)

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Offline Applewood

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #475 on: October 02, 2017, 09:56:01 pm »
I've heard conflicting reports that this guy was in a bunch of anti-Trump groups, is that true?

There is a video going around of an anti-Trump rally and one guy in the video is identified by the narrator as the Vegas shooter.  However, the narrator of the video puts up what has been identified as a real photo of the shooter alongside a closeup of the guy in the video, and while it might look like the same guy, it's really not easy to tell.  The narrator himself says later he isn't sure it's the same guy. 

Sort of like that photo of two guys with Lee Harvey Oswald and some guy on Infowars claimed one of the men was Ted Cruz's father.  No real proof in either case.

Offline edpc

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #476 on: October 02, 2017, 10:03:15 pm »
On another board, people were saying that a poorly done conversion will result in the "variable ROF" noted by some. Is that true?

They're generally unreliable and can be dangerous to the user.  The semi-auto components aren't rated for the heat and stress generated.  Could be the reason why there were multiple weapons and pauses.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #477 on: October 02, 2017, 10:06:44 pm »
Kevin Spacey's character in Seven summed it up quite well when he said, 'It's more comfortable for you to label me insane.'

People, in general, have a hard time accepting someone with rational and clear thinking could do such a thing.  Mostly, it's due to the fact we view things from our own perspective and cannot imagine ourselves doing the same, unless we were mentally ill.
Not really.

Somehow, doing this 'made sense' to the shooter.

Too much planning and forethought and loiter time beforehand for an impulse act.
 
Absence of a viable exit and escape strategy indicates either poor planning, failure to account for some factor (like smoke alarms pinpointing his location), poor execution, or the absence of desire to escape.
 Maybe he was overwhelmed with a 'sense of power' and broke with a plan which could have allowed him to leave by continuing to shoot past the point where he could escape.
(Note: many shooters suicide or suicide by cop).

Now, the mental framework within this 'made sense' to the shooter isn't what we'd consider normal, and ranges in possibility from a personal grudge against some one/entity taken out on a crowded venue to some religious motivation to seeing things and listening to the voices in his head, or perhaps an act of desperation from someone who felt they had nothing to lose.
 
There is a possibility of a blackmail attempt that had its bluff called, only it wasn't a bluff, but lost in what might be ordinary levels of threat traffic--the 'give me a million by midnight or something bad will happen' bit.
 
Discerning motive, and this seems like the act of someone who has nothing to lose, something desperate, although the person appears to be one of ample means. That appearance can be deceiving, and loss of those means lead to desperation. Whatever the case, we have insufficient data.
Without knowing more about the shooter's politics, religious standpoint, personal economics, associations, medical pathology, and other factors, the motive is impossible to discern, and whether that motive was predicated upon a specific set of delusional beliefs or cult behaviour cannot be assessed..
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Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #478 on: October 02, 2017, 10:07:44 pm »
They're generally unreliable and can be dangerous to the user.  The semi-auto components aren't rated for the heat and stress generated.  Could be the reason why there were multiple weapons and pauses.
I think the shooter was using drum magazines at the start and those are a more awkward reload than the standard double stack mags.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline TomSea

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #479 on: October 02, 2017, 10:09:01 pm »
Quote
Las Vegas shooting: 'YOU'RE ALL GOING TO DIE' – SHOCK WARNING 45 minutes before attack

...

One woman, who was at the Route 91 music event, claimed an unidentified woman had told other concert-goers they were “all going to die” after pushing her way to the front of the venue.

Las Vegas shooting: Witness claims a woman told crowd "everyone is going to die"

The witness, 21, told local news: “She had been messing with a lady in front of her and telling her she was going to die, that we were all going to die.

“They escorted her out to make her stop messing around with all the other people, but none of us knew it was going to be serious.”

Continued at: http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/861252/Las-Vegas-shooting-latest-news-Mandalay-Bay-Route-91-Marilou-Danley

I'm not sure if this was mentioned in the thread but I do think it's probably meaningless, things happen and perhaps just this woman is saying this. I thought it might be worth mentioning.

Offline Suppressed

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #480 on: October 02, 2017, 10:10:03 pm »
They're generally unreliable and can be dangerous to the user.  The semi-auto components aren't rated for the heat and stress generated.  Could be the reason why there were multiple weapons and pauses.

Was it variations in the cyclic ROF between pauses (explainable by different weapons), or within the same burst (sorry...haven't heard the audio/video of this...just going by what I read)?
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Offline Suppressed

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #481 on: October 02, 2017, 10:12:51 pm »
desperation

Or perhaps just "I've done everything else; wouldn't this be a thrill?"
+++++++++
“In the outside world, I'm a simple geologist. But in here .... I am Falcor, Defender of the Alliance” --Randy Marsh

“The most effectual means of being secure against pain is to retire within ourselves, and to suffice for our own happiness.” -- Thomas Jefferson

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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #482 on: October 02, 2017, 10:13:24 pm »
I've heard conflicting reports that this guy was in a bunch of anti-Trump groups, is that true?
Not sure about the shooter. The husband of the woman who was a person of interest and supposedly was accompanying the shooter appears to be from a facebook profile posted on a site last night. However, any connection between him and the shooter is questionable unless established by other means. Even her relationship to/with the shooter has been questioned.

In other words, we have no evidence to that effect.
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #483 on: October 02, 2017, 10:15:02 pm »
If this was a converted gun, it could have used a 'bump fire' stock system which makes a conventional platform imitate a full auto. You can pick these up for under $200 at Cabelas of off the internet. Legal to buy, installs in just a few minutes, no ATF stamps or anything like that. Usually they are just range toys and not very efficient. But it could be a low cost, easily accessible way he could have gone full auto (like) without spending $25K plus for a transferable class 3 or going into the black market.


Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #484 on: October 02, 2017, 10:17:42 pm »
Not sure about the shooter. The husband of the woman who was a person of interest and supposedly was accompanying the shooter appears to be from a facebook profile posted on a site last night. However, any connection between him and the shooter is questionable unless established by other means. Even her relationship to/with the shooter has been questioned.

In other words, we have no evidence to that effect.

The one I saw, it wasn't even the same woman's husband. The one they found was a much younger woman with the same (similar) name.

Offline Applewood

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #485 on: October 02, 2017, 10:18:16 pm »
I'm not sure if this was mentioned in the thread but I do think it's probably meaningless, things happen and perhaps just this woman is saying this. I thought it might be worth mentioning.

One story early on said this woman was supposedly the shooter's lady friend, but she's not even in the country. 

I think this was one of the fake stories that went around after the shooting -- such as there were bombs panted around Vegas, another shooter was seen, more shootings scheduled for later, etc.  Some sick people delight in spreading false stories just to enhance the panic and confusion.

Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #486 on: October 02, 2017, 10:19:21 pm »
One story early on said this woman was supposedly the shooter's lady friend, but she's not even in the country. 

I think this was one of the fake stories that went around after the shooting -- such as there were bombs panted around Vegas, another shooter was seen, more shootings scheduled for later, etc.  Some sick people delight in spreading false stories just to enhance the panic and confusion.

You can't go ten feet in Vegas without some street preacher or crazy person in your face saying 'the end is near' or 'repent or die'.

Offline driftdiver

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #487 on: October 02, 2017, 10:19:43 pm »
If this was a converted gun, it could have used a 'bump fire' stock system which makes a conventional platform imitate a full auto. You can pick these up for under $200 at Cabelas of off the internet. Legal to buy, installs in just a few minutes, no ATF stamps or anything like that. Usually they are just range toys and not very efficient. But it could be a low cost, easily accessible way he could have gone full auto (like) without spending $25K plus for a transferable class 3 or going into the black market.



I don't think money was an issue for this guy.  We should know whether the firearms were legal before too long.   He could have easily flown his plane down to mexico and bought some.

With his money he might also have started a company and bought them through it.  Not sure the legalities of doing this but maybe he got his FFL.     All conjecture at this point.
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Online DB

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #488 on: October 02, 2017, 10:22:03 pm »
I think the shooter was using drum magazines at the start and those are a more awkward reload than the standard double stack mags.

The long pause could also be due to him moving to another room. Two windows were broken out a fair distance apart (different rooms apparently).

Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #489 on: October 02, 2017, 10:23:23 pm »
I don't think money was an issue for this guy.  We should know whether the firearms were legal before too long.   He could have easily flown his plane down to mexico and bought some.

With his money he might also have started a company and bought them through it.  Not sure the legalities of doing this but maybe he got his FFL.     All conjecture at this point.

Very true. There are also firearm trusts set up where the firearms are actually owned by a corporation of private members. This way, lets say you have 5-6 friends with too much money, who want a couple of class 3s to take out on range day, they are purchased through the trust but accessible to all the members. I won't confirm or deny my familiarity with these. ;) (but it is all totally legal)

Offline driftdiver

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #490 on: October 02, 2017, 10:23:39 pm »
Was it variations in the cyclic ROF between pauses (explainable by different weapons), or within the same burst (sorry...haven't heard the audio/video of this...just going by what I read)?

@Suppressed
Its pretty hard to say what caused the pauses but my guess is he simply stopped pulling the trigger.   All of the binary trigger/bump stock type tools work to a degree but are difficult to use.  We'd probably hear more inconsistencies in the firing if he were using one of those.  Just my opinion from having fired full auto weapons and semi-auto with the trigger devices.  IMO the trigger devices are dangerous toys which the ATF will probably make illegal eventually.
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Offline driftdiver

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #491 on: October 02, 2017, 10:24:51 pm »
Very true. There are also firearm trusts set up where the firearms are actually owned by a corporation of private members. This way, lets say you have 5-6 friends with too much money, who want a couple of class 3s to take out on range day, they are purchased through the trust but accessible to all the members. I won't confirm or deny my familiarity with these. ;) (but it is all totally legal)

I need to find a lawyer.  i already have a corporation and would love to buy a new manufacture Class III firearm or 10.
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Offline Applewood

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #492 on: October 02, 2017, 10:25:37 pm »
You can't go ten feet in Vegas without some street preacher or crazy person in your face saying 'the end is near' or 'repent or die'.

Didn't see too many street preachers when I was there -- just plenty of mostly Hispanic people passing out cards advertising "escorts" and strippers.  Those vendors just about tripped people trying to shove their cr@p in their faces.

Offline Restored

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #493 on: October 02, 2017, 10:27:35 pm »
Jonesboro, Ark
Aurora
Virginia Tech
Northern Illinois University
Las Vegas

What was the motive in these killings?
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Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #494 on: October 02, 2017, 10:28:56 pm »
The gun shops where he purchased some of the weapons have been located and interviewed. He passed background checks. Semi-auto and shotguns.  Probably not the guns used though.

https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/las-vegas-shooting/two-nevada-gun-shops-say-stephen-paddock-passed-background-checks-n806921?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

Also, new picture of the perp.





Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #495 on: October 02, 2017, 10:29:50 pm »
Was it variations in the cyclic ROF between pauses (explainable by different weapons), or within the same burst (sorry...haven't heard the audio/video of this...just going by what I read)?
You can hear the audio on some of the videos from early in the development of the story. Steady fire for 50+ rounds (approx. 10 seconds) then a similar delay until fire resumes. The first couple of bursts (not really the right term, because I think the shooter just fired until the mag ran dry) were sustained, about the same pitch and volume. Going by that, and that the shooting started as the song did, the shooter went through one mag, reloaded, and started on the second before the people holding the phone realized there was a threat.
My estimate is that the shooter had fired 100 rounds into the crowd before people started running for cover and getting down to reduce their target profile in the open. By the end of the third magazine, you can hear bullets striking in the vicinity of the people with the phone, which might mean the shooter started firing at the front of the crowd (nearer the stage) and let the muzzle climb sweep the crowd. By then the band had stopped playing, and I am sure people were down.
http://youtu.be/9gVf11wSzPY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quNwKZ6JrH0
According to this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwSJiAwoMpY By the end of the video above, that AK (if it was an AK-47) should have been smoking hot, and on the verge of cooking off. Switching weapons would prevent that or failure of the firearm, which would imply that the shooter knew enough to not excessively overheat the weapons, whether that was so he could shoot more people or because he somehow anticipated that he might escape.  My guess is that with that many weapons, he intended to shoot longer or anticipated having one or more an accomplices. If there are any indications of the latter, LVPD may be keeping quiet in order to reduce panic and have time to find/track them.  Another high profile incident seems unlikely.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2017, 10:35:17 pm by Smokin Joe »
How God must weep at humans' folly! Stand fast! God knows what he is doing!
Seventeen Techniques for Truth Suppression

Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It would be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end for they do so with the approval of their own conscience.

C S Lewis

Offline edpc

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #496 on: October 02, 2017, 10:29:55 pm »
Not really.

Somehow, doing this 'made sense' to the shooter.

Too much planning and forethought and loiter time beforehand for an impulse act.
 
Absence of a viable exit and escape strategy indicates either poor planning, failure to account for some factor (like smoke alarms pinpointing his location), poor execution, or the absence of desire to escape.
 Maybe he was overwhelmed with a 'sense of power' and broke with a plan which could have allowed him to leave by continuing to shoot past the point where he could escape.
(Note: many shooters suicide or suicide by cop).

Now, the mental framework within this 'made sense' to the shooter isn't what we'd consider normal, and ranges in possibility from a personal grudge against some one/entity taken out on a crowded venue to some religious motivation to seeing things and listening to the voices in his head, or perhaps an act of desperation from someone who felt they had nothing to lose.
 
There is a possibility of a blackmail attempt that had its bluff called, only it wasn't a bluff, but lost in what might be ordinary levels of threat traffic--the 'give me a million by midnight or something bad will happen' bit.
 
Discerning motive, and this seems like the act of someone who has nothing to lose, something desperate, although the person appears to be one of ample means. That appearance can be deceiving, and loss of those means lead to desperation. Whatever the case, we have insufficient data.
Without knowing more about the shooter's politics, religious standpoint, personal economics, associations, medical pathology, and other factors, the motive is impossible to discern, and whether that motive was predicated upon a specific set of delusional beliefs or cult behaviour cannot be assessed..

Except I was responding specifically to a post as to why some place evil and insanity in the same category.  So - yes, really.
I disagree.  Circle gets the square.

Offline ABX

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #497 on: October 02, 2017, 10:31:00 pm »
I need to find a lawyer.  i already have a corporation and would love to buy a new manufacture Class III firearm or 10.

Here you go.

http://www.thefirearmblog.com/blog/2014/11/26/setting-nfa-gun-trust/

Offline truth_seeker

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #498 on: October 02, 2017, 10:33:07 pm »
Vegas LEO chief giving live press conference on ABC.

Much new content.
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Offline Applewood

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Re: Las Vegas: Active shooter reported near Mandalay Bay
« Reply #499 on: October 02, 2017, 10:35:02 pm »
59 dead.