What is Worse Than a War with North Korea? A Sudden Collapse

[DemolitionMan]

Harry J. Kazianis

Clearly the danger that is North Korea far extends beyond nuclear weapons. The issue of a North Korean collapse or some sort of forced snap reunification with the South will very likely be a challenge America and its allies in Asia will have to tackle at some point in the future as history shows no dictatorship lasts forever. So instead of scouring the headlines looking for the latest news on the DPRK’s nuke test. . . read this report instead.

What is left to say at this point when it comes to that “Hermit Kingdom” everyone loves to hate? North Korea, or also known as the so-called Democratic People’s Republic, is the ultimate Pandora’s Box and every president's worst nightmare: A-bombs, chemical toxins, biological weapons and missiles to lob them all over the world—including now at the continental United States. And Pyongyang knows how to get the news cycle to turn its way—thanks to making Northeast Asia shake with a fresh atomic test.

And yet, while North Korea flexing its atomic muscles is certainly a big deal, the world is missing the real story: What happens if someday North Korea falls apart through a mass uprising, economic disaster, or war? Plus-sized bad boy Kim Jung-un is at the head of a state that would likely take trillions of dollars to turn around towards anything resembling normal—say nothing of putting the lives back together of millions of people who been brainwashed, starved and treated as slaves.

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/what-worse-war-north-korea-sudden-collapse-22537

[Cyber Liberty]

This is of more interest to me than the "Nuclear War" scenarios we keep hearing about.  It's far more likely.  I don't think "snap reunification" is going to happen, but I do think we're going to see a collapse of the NK political system, and there could be a lot of mayhem in this case.  The possible leaders of a new NK present a problem.

[RoosGirl]

This is of more interest to me than the "Nuclear War" scenarios we keep hearing about.  It's far more likely.  I don't think "snap reunification" is going to happen, but I do think we're going to see a collapse of the NK political system, and there could be a lot of mayhem in this case.  The possible leaders of a new NK present a problem.

The current leaders of NK already present a problem.  A collapse followed by unsecured and unrestricted access to weapons is what I would think would present the problem.

[DemolitionMan]

This is of more interest to me than the "Nuclear War" scenarios we keep hearing about.  It's far more likely.  I don't think "snap reunification" is going to happen, but I do think we're going to see a collapse of the NK political system, and there could be a lot of mayhem in this case.  The possible leaders of a new NK present a problem.

I agree with you.

[Cyber Liberty]

The current leaders of NK already present a problem.  A collapse followed by unsecured and unrestricted access to weapons is what I would think would present the problem.

They're a big ol' bag o' shit, aren't they?

[Smokin Joe]

This is of more interest to me than the "Nuclear War" scenarios we keep hearing about.  It's far more likely.  I don't think "snap reunification" is going to happen, but I do think we're going to see a collapse of the NK political system, and there could be a lot of mayhem in this case.  The possible leaders of a new NK present a problem.

Considering that being programmed from day one with hate of the West and the US in particular, even the South Koreans might well view North Koreans as 'damaged goods' that will take generations of deprogramming to turn into decent neighbors, much less reunify the two Koreas. Then there is the matter of trust.

[DemolitionMan]

Considering that being programmed from day one with hate of the West and the US in particular, even the South Koreans might well view North Koreans as 'damaged goods' that will take generations of deprogramming to turn into decent neighbors, much less reunify the two Koreas. Then there is the matter of trust.

But you must remember there are entire families that have not seen each other since 1953. In Germany after the war, entire families were seperated by the "Iron Curtain". As soon as the Curtain fell, they were re-united. But the cost may be high for the Korean Peninsula. South Korea will have to bring North Korea into the 21st century with enormous financial investments. Also, North Korea must abandon their weapons programs.

[Victoria33]

ping

[DemolitionMan]

But you must remember there are entire families that have not seen each other since 1953. In Germany after the war, entire families were seperated by the "Iron Curtain". As soon as the Curtain fell, they were re-united. But the cost may be high for the Korean Peninsula. South Korea will have to bring North Korea into the 21st century with enormous financial investments. Also, North Korea must abandon their weapons programs.

However, there has to be a permanent peace.The United States will retain all of our military bases there. We will have to ask the Russians and Chinese to stop meddling in Korean affairs.

[Smokin Joe]

But you must remember there are entire families that have not seen each other since 1953. In Germany after the war, entire families were seperated by the "Iron Curtain". As soon as the Curtain fell, they were re-united. But the cost may be high for the Korean Peninsula. South Korea will have to bring North Korea into the 21st century with enormous financial investments. Also, North Korea must abandon their weapons programs.

I still think the biggest obstacle will be the cradle to grave hatred the North Koreans have been programmed with for South Korea and the West. American families split irreparably over the 4 years of war here. They have had 50 years of enmity which will not be overcome quickly, and might not be something that can be trusted if it appears to be an easy reconciliation, just an opportunity to position for a coup in the South.

[DemolitionMan]

I still think the biggest obstacle will be the cradle to grave hatred the North Koreans have been programmed with for South Korea and the West. American families split irreparably over the 4 years of war here. They have had 50 years of enmity which will not be overcome quickly, and might not be something that can be trusted if it appears to be an easy reconciliation, just an opportunity to position for a coup in the South.

They can be deprogrammed. The West Germans did a very good job of deprogramming East Germans.Give them a taste of capitalism and they will be deprogrammed when the Berlin Wall fell. You are right they will have to be watched. That is why United States bases must be still stationed in Korea.

[Smokin Joe]

However, there has to be a permanent peace.The United States will retain all of our military bases there. We will have to ask the Russians and Chinese to stop meddling in Korean affairs.

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese, not to mention an unknown number of Russians died fighting mostly American forces in the Korean War. They negotiated a cease fire to push for advantage, not to surrender.
I still believe that capitulation will be a hard pill to swallow--we wouldn't, and the Chinese won't lose face by doing so either.

[DemolitionMan]

Hundreds of thousands of Chinese, not to mention an unknown number of Russians died fighting mostly American forces in the Korean War. They negotiated a cease fire to push for advantage, not to surrender.
I still believe that capitulation will be a hard pill to swallow--we wouldn't, and the Chinese won't lose face by doing so either.

Give them a taste of capitalism they will change their tune.

[Smokin Joe]

Give them a taste of capitalism they will change their tune.

First, they will not believe it, then they will revert to their programming that it is just a trick of the evil capitalists. Imagine being 60 years old and knowing nothing but the reign of the Kims, with all that implies. No outside media, no outside culture, no outside influences (to have them is to risk death).  It would require all but a very few of them to discard every belief they have ever held, fostered by a State that controlled everything they saw, read, or had.

They would assume that any other State would do the same, only with their stuff, and whether or not they would believe it remains questionable.  Then, too, there would be the problems of industrial and other espionage performed on behalf of the Russians  and the Chinese. 

[DemolitionMan]

First, they will not believe it, then they will revert to their programming that it is just a trick of the evil capitalists. Imagine being 60 years old and knowing nothing but the reign of the Kims, with all that implies. No outside media, no outside culture, no outside influences (to have them is to risk death).  It would require all but a very few of them to discard every belief they have ever held, fostered by a State that controlled everything they saw, read, or had.

They would assume that any other State would do the same, only with their stuff, and whether or not they would believe it remains questionable.  Then, too, there would be the problems of industrial and other espionage performed on behalf of the Russians  and the Chinese.

Having money tend to change people. It changed the countries in Eastern Europe as soon they learned how to make money. There is espionage from Russia and the China already here inside American companies. So you do not have to worry about that.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-kaspersky-russia-espionage-20170913-story.html

[DemolitionMan]

Having money tend to change people. It changed the countries in Eastern Europe as soon they learned how to make money. There is espionage from Russia and the China already here inside American companies. So you do not have to worry about that.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-kaspersky-russia-espionage-20170913-story.html

The way I see it there is a ton of money to be made in North Korea if the DMZ dissolves like after the Berlin Wall fell. Everything from natural resources(oil,gas,coal) to weapons. Those weapons can be sold to countries in South Asia,Southeast Asia,Eurasia,the Middle East and Africa(at the right price).The Lord of War.

[Smokin Joe]

The way I see it there is a ton of money to be made in North Korea if the DMZ dissolves like after the Berlin Wall fell. Everything from natural resources to weapons. Those weapons can be sold to countries in South Asia,Eurasia,the Middle East and Africa(at the right price).The Lord of War.

Weapons would go to Iran and elsewhere. But the same thing happened when the USSR broke up. Still, the Russians and Europeans had not been under the same sort of yoke as long, and had not been subject to the same sort of indoctrination program. I question how ready the average North Korean would be for capitalism.

[DemolitionMan]

Weapons would go to Iran and elsewhere. But the same thing happened when the USSR broke up. Still, the Russians and Europeans had not been under the same sort of yoke as long, and had not been subject to the same sort of indoctrination program. I question how ready the average North Korean would be for capitalism.

You are forgetting places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The United States purchases old Soviet equipment for the Afgan Army. Like AK-47s,7.62mm bullets, and RPGs. You can purchase Soviet equipment here in the United States.

[Smokin Joe]

You are forgetting places like Pakistan and Afghanistan. The United States purchases old Soviet equipment for the Afgan Army. Like AK-47s,7.62mm bullets, and RPGs. You can purchase Soviet equipment here in the United States.

Actually, I was thinking of bigger fish. Submarines, warships, missiles, warheads...

[Mom MD]

The current leaders of NK already present a problem.  A collapse followed by unsecured and unrestricted access to weapons is what I would think would present the problem.

Don't worry, they wouldn't be unsecured for long. I'm sure Iran already has people in place and drooling over anything that could be picked up quickly in the event of chaos of any kind - a US attack, someone finally getting to rocket man or any of a dozen other things that could temporarily leave the candy store unattended.

[Smokin Joe]

Don't worry, they wouldn't be unsecured for long. I'm sure Iran already has people in place and drooling over anything that could be picked up quickly in the event of chaos of any kind - a US attack, someone finally getting to rocket man or any of a dozen other things that could temporarily leave the candy store unattended.

Watch for the Iranians to do him in and try to shift the blame to either the South or the US, and use the chaos to make off with a bunch of stuff.

[Cyber Liberty]

I always suspected Iran would be customer #1 if TSHF in Nork.  In fact, I always thought they're #1 even if TSHF never happens in Nork.  Indeed they want that so bad they can taste it.

[DemolitionMan]

Actually, I was thinking of bigger fish. Submarines, warships, missiles, warheads...

The US Army can only sell the small stuff. I know the US government web site where you can bid those items(bullets,RPGs) for the procurement office of the US Army via Afganistan Army. I remember reading a book called "War Dogs" Guy Lawson who wrote about a story about two kids sold  the US Army 300 million rounds of Soviet style Ammo for the Afgan army and became very wealthy. All you need to survive is follow the State Department rules on import and export and everything will be all right.

[rangerrebew]

The collapse might have already happened if the people were allowed to have their own weapons.  This is another example of the importance of the 2nd Amendment, one the founders foresaw.