How Vulnerable Are Societies to Collapse?

[rangerrebew]

How Vulnerable Are Societies to Collapse?
By Jim O'Donnell | September 28, 2017 12:28 pm


Research findings on three early Native American cultures from the southwestern United States show how each responded to environmental challenges in different ways that dramatically altered their people’s futures. (David Williams/SAPIENS)

Along the cottonwood-lined rivers of southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the Mimbres people did something unique: By the year 1000, these farmers were producing stunning ceramics decorated with naturalistic images of fish, people, and rabbits, as well as magical creatures and elaborate geometric patterns. And then, rather abruptly, they stopped.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/crux/2017/09/28/how-vulnerable-collapse/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20DiscoverEnvironment%20%28Discover%20Environment%29#.Wc4SbNFrywW

[Fishrrman]

We're going to find out -- in the next 40-50 years.
(I won't be around to see)

[Victoria33]

ping

[Free Vulcan]

We're going to find out -- in the next 40-50 years.
(I won't be around to see)

At this rate, more like 10.

[DemolitionMan]

If you take a look at history, societies collapse all the time.Such collapses have occurred many times in human history, and no civilisation, no matter how seemingly great, is immune to the vulnerabilities that may lead a society to its end. Regardless of how well things are going in the present moment, the situation can always change. Putting aside species-ending events like an asteroid strike, nuclear winter or deadly pandemic, history tells us that it’s usually a plethora of factors that contribute to collapse

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse

[Smokin Joe]

The more critical points of failure, the more likely the system will crash.

For an idea, look at Puerto Rico's problems with distributing incoming aid. Computers are down, records inaccessible, power is out. Thousands of cargo containers in port with no distribution, comms are down with cell towers, so they can't call to see who could receive freight even if they had the fuel to get it there (and the drivers).

Every chain has weaker links, no culture or society is immune.

[DemolitionMan]

The more critical points of failure, the more likely the system will crash.

For an idea, look at Puerto Rico's problems with distributing incoming aid. Computers are down, records inaccessible, power is out. Thousands of cargo containers in port with no distribution, comms are down with cell towers, so they can't call to see who could receive freight even if they had the fuel to get it there (and the drivers).

Every chain has weaker links, no culture or society is immune.

Good Point. But an obscure law is holding up distribution.The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, also known as the Jones Act, is a United States federal statute that provides for the promotion and maintenance of the American merchant marine.Among other purposes, the law regulates maritime commerce in U.S. waters and between U.S. ports. Section 27 of the Jones Act deals with cabotage and requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on U.S.-flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents.The act was introduced by Senator Wesley Jones.Requests for waivers of the Act and its provisions are reviewed by the Department of Homeland Security on a case-by-case basis, and can only be granted based on interest of national defense. Historically, waivers have only been granted in cases of national emergencies or upon the request of the Secretary of Defense.

[Smokin Joe]

Good Point. But an obscure law is holding up distribution.The Merchant Marine Act of 1920, also known as the Jones Act, is a United States federal statute that provides for the promotion and maintenance of the American merchant marine.Among other purposes, the law regulates maritime commerce in U.S. waters and between U.S. ports. Section 27 of the Jones Act deals with cabotage and requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried on U.S.-flag ships, constructed in the United States, owned by U.S. citizens, and crewed by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents.The act was introduced by Senator Wesley Jones.Requests for waivers of the Act and its provisions are reviewed by the Department of Homeland Security on a case-by-case basis, and can only be granted based on interest of national defense. Historically, waivers have only been granted in cases of national emergencies or upon the request of the Secretary of Defense.

That's the impression people are getting. The reality is that there are no drivers and no fuel to move what is already there (over 3000 40 ft. containers full of supplies) and the port is getting jammed. Clear the bottleneck and aid can move. The situation is hampered by the lack of functioning computers (down from the island getting slammed by two hurricanes back to back) along with power. Those numbered containers are a big question mark without being able to scan them and identify contents and destination. All the things that make shipping efficient here aren't functioning there, and fuel for those trucks which are running is running low. More ships lined up at the dock isn't the solution so much as being able to make use of what is there.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/puerto_rico_storm_aid_ports.html

https://usnewz.com/2017/09/28/puerto-ricos-aid-trapped-9500-shipping-containers

https://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-port-reopens-but-relief-distribution-remains-slow-1506446137

[DemolitionMan]

That's the impression people are getting. The reality is that there are no drivers and no fuel to move what is already there (over 3000 40 ft. containers full of supplies) and the port is getting jammed. Clear the bottleneck and aid can move. The situation is hampered by the lack of functioning computers (down from the island getting slammed by two hurricanes back to back) along with power. Those numbered containers are a big question mark without being able to scan them and identify contents and destination. All the things that make shipping efficient here aren't functioning there, and fuel for those trucks which are running is running low. More ships lined up at the dock isn't the solution so much as being able to make use of what is there.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2017/09/puerto_rico_storm_aid_ports.html

Its interesting though that in this article it mentioned this buried in the narrative toward the bottom"In Washington, debate swirled around the 1920 Jones Act, which requires shipments of goods between two U.S. ports to be made with American-flagged vessels, limiting the amount of shipping and driving up its cost. Critics say suspending it -- or ending it -- is key to helping the stricken island, but the Trump administration has so far refused".The administration temporarily lifted the rule this month to ensure gasoline-starved Florida received supplies after Hurricane Harvey. And foreign ships that took on gasoline or diesel before 11:59 p.m. Friday are still allowed to unload on U.S. soil, Customs and Border Protection spokesman Gregory Moore said last week.

[Smokin Joe]

Its interesting though that in this article it mentioned this buried in the narrative toward the bottom"In Washington, debate swirled around the 1920 Jones Act, which requires shipments of goods between two U.S. ports to be made with American-flagged vessels, limiting the amount of shipping and driving up its cost. Critics say suspending it -- or ending it -- is key to helping the stricken island, but the Trump administration has so far refused".The administration temporarily lifted the rule this month to ensure gasoline-starved Florida received supplies after Hurricane Harvey. And foreign ships that took on gasoline or diesel before 11:59 p.m. Friday are still allowed to unload on U.S. soil, Customs and Border Protection spokesman Gregory Moore said last week.

While debate may have swirled about it, that doesn't make the port nor the other problems on the ground there in Puerto Rico any different, it is only a measure of how much some parties want to see that act done away with, or they assume that foreign flagged vessels might be able to transport those cargoes and somehow magically put those supplies in the hands of the locals when the problem appears to be one of infrastructure damage and the distribution of supplies on the island.

Considering the obvious penchant for doing things in emergencies which have lasting and often deleterious effect on the security of this country and its military capabilities, of which, ultimately the merchant marine is a part, I would caution against action taken rashly that is of any more than a temporary and limited nature.

[Bigun]

Its interesting though that in this article it mentioned this buried in the narrative toward the bottom"In Washington, debate swirled around the 1920 Jones Act, which requires shipments of goods between two U.S. ports to be made with American-flagged vessels, limiting the amount of shipping and driving up its cost. Critics say suspending it -- or ending it -- is key to helping the stricken island, but the Trump administration has so far refused".The administration temporarily lifted the rule this month to ensure gasoline-starved Florida received supplies after Hurricane Harvey. And foreign ships that took on gasoline or diesel before 11:59 p.m. Friday are still allowed to unload on U.S. soil, Customs and Border Protection spokesman Gregory Moore said last week.

The media is doing it's damnedest to try and hang Puerto Rico around Trumps neck like they hung Katrina around Bushes!

[Smokin Joe]

The media is doing it's damnedest to try and hang Puerto Rico around Trumps neck like they hung Katrina around Bushes!

Yep. That is certain, as is the bias in reporting similar events (Dr. Suess, for instance, vacation costs, etc.) The double standard is obvious.

What people don't realize, is that container ports rely heavily on egress transport (hauling the containers out of the port to inland destinations) and computers to keep track of shipment manifests and those destinations. Without being able to access container manifest data, and even then to be able to locate specific containers in the stacks onshore, there is a logjam of unidentified cargo. Further complicating the problem is that the phones, from cellular to landline were wiped out. No communications, no computers, no power, and things are far more complicated than putting a box or a barrel on the beach.