ISIS Isn’t Ending. It’s Transforming.

[TomSea]

Excerpted:

ISIS Isn’t Ending. It’s Transforming.
By Joshua Keating

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Given how deep the sectarian divisions have become in Iraqi politics and society, and the prominent role played by Iranian-backed Shiite militias in the recent fighting, it also seems likely that either ISIS or another group with similar aims will channel Sunni resentments into violence. The situation in Syria is more uncertain, but if—as appears likely—the U.S. and Russia reach a deal that leaves Bashar al-Assad in power, it would be a major boost to jihadi recruitment there. Rather than the end of the line, the current decline of ISIS is more likely a transition to a new phase for a group that has existed under various incarnations, names, and leaders over the past 20 years.

As for what impact Baghdadi’s death would have, that’s less clear. For all the global attention on ISIS since 2014, he’s hardly been the household name that Bin Laden was during al-Qaida’s heyday, communicating only in sporadic and rare audio messages since the 2014 caliphate announcement. He likely had no military background and took little part in the planning of operations. The data on whether killing terrorist group leaders actually severely disrupts their groups is mixed at best. On the other hand, we have no choice but to give at least some credit to him. With almost no prior political standing, he managed to displace al-Qaida as the focal point of global Jihadi movement. He inspired followers around the world to carry out dozens of devastating attacks in its name. Most impressively, he built a pseudo-state that at one point was about the size of Jordan that held out against a U.S.-led coalition of 72 countries for three years. It’s hard to imagine he’d be easy to replace.

Continued: http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/07/11/baghdadi_s_death_wouldn_t_be_the_end_of_isis.html