Author Topic: North Korea: What do we do next? (Read 2192 times)

pjohns · « **on:** April 25, 2017, 04:36:03 pm »

On the news tonight was a rather trenchant analysis, as regarding North Korea, and how to deal with it.

To paraphrase:

We are currently applying some pressure to China (North Korea's benefactor), in the hope that they will, in turn, apply pressure to North Korea; and that this will result in North Korea's ending its nuclear program.

But that is Plan A.

One would very much hope that it works.

But what if it does not work?

Then we must go to Plan B.

But what, exactly, is Plan B?

Is it (1) to do nothing--as successive administrations (both Democratic and Republican) have done for many years now?

Or is it (2) to strike North Korea, pre-emptively?

Those are really the only two remaining options.

And neither is very palatable.

If we do nothing, North Korea will surely have a nuclear bomb--and have it miniaturized, and be able to place it upon a missile--within the next four or five years, anyway. And Kim Jong-un will certainly have no compunction about using it.

On the other hand, it we strike Pyongyang--which is very tempting--we risk the possibility (make that the probability--the very high probability) that over 100,000 South Koreans will die, almost instantly, in retaliation.

And many Japanese--also within range of Little Kim's nukes--probably will also die.

To say that this is an unhappy choice is to engage in grave understatement.

And that is doubtless why every president, so far, has simply ignored the problem.

But it will not be subject to our merely ignoring it for much longer.

So we must now make the very hard choice: Do we prefer Plan B, Option 1, or Plan B, Option 2 (with all of its attendant ramifications)?

Again, it simply cannot be ignored for much longer.

thackney · « **Reply #1 on:** April 25, 2017, 04:38:23 pm »

driftdiver · « **Reply #2 on:** April 25, 2017, 04:52:42 pm »

South Korea has about 20 million people within easy range of North Korean artillery. If you include the missiles then the entire country can be hit within about 20 minutes. Then there is Japan which is also within 10-20 mins.

The North Koreans have VX, Sarin, Anthranx and other very bad WMDs in addition to the probably nukes they have. Most likely you are looking at a death toll in the millions.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #3 on:** April 25, 2017, 05:25:30 pm »

I don't think "Plan B" is a binary thing. We're getting to where it is, but I hope there are other options than "Nothing" and "Invade." If China wants to hold our coat on this, what's keeping them from giving us sufficient intel to make effective strikes?

Sanguine · « **Reply #4 on:** April 25, 2017, 05:30:16 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 25, 2017, 05:25:30 pm

I don't think "Plan B" is a binary thing. We're getting to where it is, but I hope there are other options than "Nothing" and "Invade." If China wants to hold our coat on this, what's keeping them from giving us sufficient intel to make effective strikes?

You would think China would have some interest in preventing NK from having usable nukes.

pjohns · « **Reply #5 on:** April 25, 2017, 05:32:59 pm »

Quote from: Cyber Liberty on April 25, 2017, 05:25:30 pm

I don't think "Plan B" is a binary thing. We're getting to where it is, but I hope there are other options than "Nothing" and "Invade."

Actually, Plan B, Option 2, is not to "invade"; but to strike Pyongyang with missiles.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #6 on:** April 25, 2017, 05:55:35 pm »

Quote from: pjohns on April 25, 2017, 05:32:59 pm

Actually, Plan B, Option 2, is not to "invade"; but to strike Pyongyang with missiles.

There may be yet other possibilities, I'm not privy to the capabilities.

corbe · « **Reply #7 on:** April 25, 2017, 06:29:27 pm »

Something’s Cooking With North Korea: Entire Senate Invited To White House

By Steve Berman | April 25, 2017, 11:31am |  @stevengberman

It’s pretty rare for the White House to invite the entire Senate–100 senators–to receive a briefing by senior administration officials on one specific topic. From Reuters:

Quote

All 100 senators have been asked to the White House for the briefing by Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said White House spokesman Sean Spicer on Monday.

Something’s cooking here. It’s notable that Gen. Dunford is one of the briefers. You don’t bring in the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs unless some military options are being kicked around.

Of course, like the USS Carl Vinson tail-wagging-the-dog, this could be another “show of strength” for Kim Jong Un. The North Korean government and its decisions have long been inscrutable and opaque for western intelligence. Trump may simply be giving Kim a run for his money, forcing him to try and parse Trump’s next move from a sea of unpredictable feints and threats.

This is typically not the way America does business in foreign relations, but Trump indicated that he never plans to telegraph his moves (except to the Russians and Syrian government when we launch cruise missiles).

By inviting the entire Senate, Trump guarantees two things: (1) Democrats can’t claim that whatever Trump does, they weren’t informed; and (2) if there are leaks, it’s almost certain the leaks will contain what the administration wants to be leaked. So this could be a feint for the Norks, it could be some tremendous intelligence on Kim’s capabilities and intentions, or it could be a real prelude to action.

Quote

Aides said they were working with the White House to schedule a similar briefing for the House of Representatives.

Although Reuters reported an unnamed “senior administration official” said this briefing was “not a part of something choreographed,” and cautioned against over-interpretation, it’s likely this briefing, and any followup with the House, is very much choreographed to send a very specific message to very specific people.

North Korea may be an infected zit on the face of western civilization, but letting it become nuclear and ICBM-capable is just plain stupid.

http://theresurgent.com/somethings-cooking-with-north-korea-entire-senate-invited-to-white-house/

Restored · « **Reply #8 on:** April 25, 2017, 06:47:37 pm »

The fact that Russia and China are on the border means they think they will have to step in. China was the King Rat until NK started messing up. Now South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are increasing their military. The country that would gain the most by the North going away is China. The North has everyone on edge and which means they will improve their military, something China doesn't want.

Cyber Liberty · « **Reply #9 on:** April 25, 2017, 06:50:15 pm »

Quote from: Restored on April 25, 2017, 06:47:37 pm

The fact that Russia and China are on the border means they think they will have to step in. China was the King Rat until NK started messing up. Now South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are increasing their military. The country that would gain the most by the North going away is China. The North has everyone on edge and which means they will improve their military, something China doesn't want.

China doesn't want Putin messing with this either. They have more motivation to work with us than they've ever had before.

Fishrrman · « **Reply #10 on:** April 26, 2017, 12:57:22 am »

Perhaps settlement of the NKorean issue will involve some kind of "grand bargain" between China, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

That is to say, the Chinese will go in and "do the dirty work" since they are on the border with NKorea and probably have numerous agents inside.

The lil' fat boy will be deposed, and his nuclear weapons and missiles dismantled and disposed of.

A "rational" NKorean government will then be installed by the Chinese, with an option to begin talks for reunification.

IF there is to be reunification, as part of the bargain the United States will vacate SKorea militarily, and the new Korea will exist as a non-nuclear "passive" state (a la Japan with "self-defense" forces only), renounce any nuclear [weapon] development, and completely demilitarize "the north" so as to become no border threat to China.

And the final part of the grand bargain will have something to do with (you guessed it) Taiwan, of which China has had "an interest" in for decades.

"Never happen", you'll say.
But think about it.
Which is the most important to the security of the region, and even the United States:
1. the dismemberment of North Korea and the existential threat it poses to us,
or...
2. the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China?

Prediction:
We'll never have a reunified Korea UNLESS we are willing to concede a reunified China along with it.

pjohns · « **Reply #11 on:** April 26, 2017, 05:21:43 pm »

Quote from: Fishrrman on April 26, 2017, 12:57:22 am

Perhaps settlement of the NKorean issue will involve some kind of "grand bargain" between China, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

That is to say, the Chinese will go in and "do the dirty work" since they are on the border with NKorea and probably have numerous agents inside.

The lil' fat boy will be deposed, and his nuclear weapons and missiles dismantled and disposed of.

A "rational" NKorean government will then be installed by the Chinese, with an option to begin talks for reunification.

IF there is to be reunification, as part of the bargain the United States will vacate SKorea militarily, and the new Korea will exist as a non-nuclear "passive" state (a la Japan with "self-defense" forces only), renounce any nuclear [weapon] development, and completely demilitarize "the north" so as to become no border threat to China.

And the final part of the grand bargain will have something to do with (you guessed it) Taiwan, of which China has had "an interest" in for decades.

"Never happen", you'll say.
But think about it.
Which is the most important to the security of the region, and even the United States:
1. the dismemberment of North Korea and the existential threat it poses to us,
or...
2. the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China?

Prediction:
We'll never have a reunified Korea UNLESS we are willing to concede a reunified China along with it.

That is a reasonable analysis.

Still, I would certainly not wish to sell out our ally, Taiwan.

That strikes me as a Machiavellian ploy, based upon the (rancid) concept that "the end justifies the means."

And I certainly hope that I would never embrace that concept--in any context...

Joe Wooten · « **Reply #12 on:** April 26, 2017, 05:34:29 pm »

Quote from: Restored on April 25, 2017, 06:47:37 pm

The fact that Russia and China are on the border means they think they will have to step in. China was the King Rat until NK started messing up. Now South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are increasing their military. The country that would gain the most by the North going away is China. The North has everyone on edge and which means they will improve their military, something China doesn't want.

Most especially Japan. The Chinese are rightly most paranoid about a heavily armed and newly militant Japan. Technologically, they are approximately equal in technology to the US, not an inferior like they were in 1941.

Joe Wooten · « **Reply #13 on:** April 26, 2017, 05:37:04 pm »

Quote from: Fishrrman on April 26, 2017, 12:57:22 am

Perhaps settlement of the NKorean issue will involve some kind of "grand bargain" between China, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

That is to say, the Chinese will go in and "do the dirty work" since they are on the border with NKorea and probably have numerous agents inside.

The lil' fat boy will be deposed, and his nuclear weapons and missiles dismantled and disposed of.

A "rational" NKorean government will then be installed by the Chinese, with an option to begin talks for reunification.

IF there is to be reunification, as part of the bargain the United States will vacate SKorea militarily, and the new Korea will exist as a non-nuclear "passive" state (a la Japan with "self-defense" forces only), renounce any nuclear [weapon] development, and completely demilitarize "the north" so as to become no border threat to China.

And the final part of the grand bargain will have something to do with (you guessed it) Taiwan, of which China has had "an interest" in for decades.

"Never happen", you'll say.
But think about it.
Which is the most important to the security of the region, and even the United States:
1. the dismemberment of North Korea and the existential threat it poses to us,
or...
2. the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China?

Prediction:
We'll never have a reunified Korea UNLESS we are willing to concede a reunified China along with it.

The only way the South Koreans will re-unify with the Norks is if somebody (China, US) pays for it. NK is in much worse condition than East Germany was in 1990 and SK is much poorer than West Germany was in 1990. They know it will take decades and ruinous economic measures to bring North Korea up to their standards.

Restored · « **Reply #14 on:** April 26, 2017, 05:46:19 pm »

Quote from: Joe Wooten on April 26, 2017, 05:37:04 pm

The only way the South Koreans will re-unify with the Norks is if somebody (China, US) pays for it. NK is in much worse condition than East Germany was in 1990 and SK is much poorer than West Germany was in 1990. They know it will take decades and ruinous economic measures to bring North Korea up to their standards.

Perhaps not. North Korea has a large amount of mining for essential metals and what is practically a slave labor force. South Korea has food. East Germans wanted jobs. The Norks just want to eat. Remember, Europe was rebuilt after WW2 by a slave labor force of German POW's. The same will be true of North Korea.

NavyCanDo · « **Reply #15 on:** April 26, 2017, 06:57:35 pm »

The comedy movie, The Interview could be taken a little more serious.

TomSea · « **Reply #16 on:** April 26, 2017, 07:23:14 pm »

We all keep up with the news, it seems like there is a continuing low-percentage chance (1-10%) that we might let them have it, 3% maybe. An aggravating situation still.