Weather Service made poor decision in overplaying Nor’easter snow predictions

[Wingnut]

Fake and Hyped Weather News and Inflated Potential disaster warnings are SOP for the Weather Media all to often.

The afternoon before the blizzard predicted for New York City fizzled out, the National Weather Service knew the storm might not produce the epic snow amounts it had forecast. But because it didn’t want to “confuse” the public, it decided to continue emphasizing the worst-case scenario.

This was a well-intentioned but flawed decision that has the potential to damage public trust in weather forecasts.

[It was a tough forecast and we had a wintry mix of successes and failures]

The Weather Service has a responsibility to put out the best possible forecast. If forecasts are changing and it knows there is substantial risk they could be wrong, it needs to revise them and communicate the changes immediately.

On Monday afternoon, many computer-model forecasts had presented a clear trend toward less snow in the big cities from Washington to New York.

Most of them showed the storm tracking closer to the coast, which would draw in milder air and switch snow to sleet, ice and rain. However, the Weather Service’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model held onto very high snow amounts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/15/weather-service-made-poor-decision-in-overplaying-noreaster-snow-predictions/

[Frank Cannon]

Of course, the Christie, Trump and Drudge statements were sweeping and unfair generalizations that totally failed to appreciate the excellent Weather Service forecasts inland from the big cities and great work the agency does day in and day out.

“I am deeply disappointed in the governor’s comments,” said Gary Szatkowski, who ran the Weather Service office serving Philadelphia before retiring last year. “They are unfair to meteorologists in general, and to the National Weather Service in particular.”

Someone should tip these idiots off that next to Lawyers, Politicians and Child Rapists, Weathermen are right up there in the disrespect column.

[EC]

And if they'd changed the forecast to say less snow and were wrong?

Getting less snow (or wind, or rain) than forecast doesn't kill you. Getting more does. Erring on the high side is fine.

[Applewood]

Nothing new where I live, particularly on local TV channels.  Granted, these metereologists get their data from the NWS, but what they do with the data is just plain silly.  Every time a storm is even hinted, these stations go into crisis mode.  Expanded newscasts, reporters stationed outside on some highway telling us it's snowing, and, of course, the requisite government officials (governor, mayor, etc.) sporting their frowny faces and telling us to stay home.  It's funny, but it's also annoying because you can't get into the door of your favorite supermarket as people panic shop for toilet paper. 

We were supposed to get some weather from the Noreaster that just hit the east coast.  First,  the prediction was 3-6 inches, then 1-3 inches.  We ended up with a half inch at the most and this afternoon, the sun came out and melted most of it.  So much for crisis.

With all the technology available out there, these scientists still can't predict what the weather is going to be.  And we are suckers for believing they can.

[Cripplecreek]

And if they'd changed the forecast to say less snow and were wrong?

Getting less snow (or wind, or rain) than forecast doesn't kill you. Getting more does. Erring on the high side is fine.

Yeah its hardly the first wrong forecast. Here in the midwest we're lucky if the media bothers to inform us of an impending storm at all.

[endicom]

In most places there was lots of snow just off the coast. I'd give the NWS a pass on this.

[truth_seeker]

Weather like politics has become a subject to sensationalize.

Only a few things that grab my attention enough to stare at the mainstream news, and they are a hurricane (landslide, flood, etc) or a car chase.

Looking for danger and damage. High drama. Adrenaline junkies.  Some people use drugs and alcohol for similar effects.

Love me them LA car chases. 


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tprh2djDpFE

[Wingnut]

And if they'd changed the forecast to say less snow and were wrong?

 Erring on the high side is fine.

To Error is Human.

Purposeful exaggeration for web hits and views is fake news!

[jmyrlefuller]

In most places there was lots of snow just off the coast. I'd give the NWS a pass on this.

DISCLAIMER: I have a bachelor's degree in meteorology and am qualified to forecast weather. I don't forecast professionally but I do do some forecasting on an amateur basis.

What happened here—and this is something that even the Weather Channel picked up on—was that New York City was VERY close to the rain/snow line. Forecast models, especially the longer-range ones, are inherently limited in how narrow of a space in which they can make the forecast, based on a number of issues (chief among them observations). There was always going to be a great deal of uncertainty in how this storm was going to pan out regardless of how good the models are. The blizzard scenario was a worst-case scenario, but completely plausible, perhaps almost as likely as the scenario that happened: rain and mixed precip keeping snow totals down.

Most likely, what I suspect happened was that warmer oceanic air fueled by the Gulf Stream got caught into the flow of the low-pressure system further inland than the models projected.

The advice to be prepared for a blizzard was fully warranted (better to be over-prepared than unprepared) as long as there was the understanding that it was not a certainty.

[thackney]

And if they'd changed the forecast to say less snow and were wrong?

Getting less snow (or wind, or rain) than forecast doesn't kill you. Getting more does. Erring on the high side is fine.

Routinely forecasting worse than reality teaches the public not to take their warnings seriously.

[Cripplecreek]

Routinely forecasting worse than reality teaches the public not to take their warnings seriously.

Which is pretty much what those of us who weren't born yesterday do anyway. A lot of us do our own forecasting based on a glance at what meteorologists are saying, what radar says, what the wind is doing and even how wildlife behaves and none of us are 100% accurate.

I can see a major storm coming dead on at me from the west only for it to dissipate 10 miles from me.

[EC]

I prefer worst case forecasts. Don't want to be told there's no problems, then get swatted out of the air by a sudden storm or lose a turbine to hail. Choppers don't glide great (though contrary to popular belief they do glide), and they certainly don't bounce well.

[Wingnut]

I prefer worst case forecasts. Don't want to be told there's no problems, then get swatted out of the air by a sudden storm or lose a turbine to hail. Choppers don't glide great (though contrary to popular belief they do glide), and they certainly don't bounce well.

So you are saying, auto rotation, all the way to the crash site is not all it's cracked up to be?

[EC]

Oh, it cracks up quite spectacularly. 

[Wingnut]

Quite right!   lol

[Cripplecreek]

I prefer worst case forecasts. Don't want to be told there's no problems, then get swatted out of the air by a sudden storm or lose a turbine to hail. Choppers don't glide great (though contrary to popular belief they do glide), and they certainly don't bounce well.

A chopper mechanic friend of mine was working with a chopper pilot on some sort of deployable wing for emergencies some years ago. It needed to be light, collapsible, simple so it would deploy every time and reasonably controllable. It was a struggle to say the least in large part because there just aren't a lot of good places to stow and deploy a wing on a chopper.

[rodamala]

I just wanna know why people are so inclined to gorge themselves on French Toast everytime one of these storms is forecasted.

I guess the meteorologists own stock in bread, milk and egg companies.

[EC]

Now I'm trying to visualize that. 

Flight tease me about strapping a huge parachute over the flare launchers pretty much every time I land hard.