Author Topic: Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election  (Read 819 times)

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Offline jmyrlefuller

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Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election
« on: February 05, 2017, 06:54:11 pm »
A recent study indicates that so-called “fake news” had very little, if any, effect on the 2016 election results.

The study, undertook by Hunt Allcott of New York University and Matthew Gentzkow of Stanford University, concluded that only 14 percent of Americans surveyed say social media is their “most important” source of election news.

Another sentence in the study reads, “Our confidence intervals rule out that the average voting-age American saw, remembered, and believed more than 0.71 pro-Trump fake stories and 0.18 pro-Clinton fake stories.”

Full story:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/03/study-fake-news-had-little-to-no-effect-on-election/

Study:
http://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/fakenews.pdf
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Offline Norm Lenhart

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Re: Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election
« Reply #1 on: February 05, 2017, 06:57:45 pm »
A recent study indicates that so-called “fake news” had very little, if any, effect on the 2016 election results.

The study, undertook by Hunt Allcott of New York University and Matthew Gentzkow of Stanford University, concluded that only 14 percent of Americans surveyed say social media is their “most important” source of election news.

Another sentence in the study reads, “Our confidence intervals rule out that the average voting-age American saw, remembered, and believed more than 0.71 pro-Trump fake stories and 0.18 pro-Clinton fake stories.”

Full story:
http://dailycaller.com/2017/02/03/study-fake-news-had-little-to-no-effect-on-election/

Study:
http://web.stanford.edu/~gentzkow/research/fakenews.pdf

Lets assume that's true. Social media is however a lot more than 14% of the source of info that forms their overall opinion.

Offline jmyrlefuller

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Re: Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election
« Reply #2 on: February 05, 2017, 07:02:05 pm »
Lets assume that's true. Social media is however a lot more than 14% of the source of info that forms their overall opinion.
However, keep in mind one other thing: I'm only speculating here that people who believed a fake news story were probably already voting for Trump and simply used that false evidence to further entrench an existing belief.

It was the false news in the primaries, which was far more widely disseminated and demonstrably false (ahem, National Enquirer), that was probably more influential.
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Offline Norm Lenhart

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Re: Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election
« Reply #3 on: February 05, 2017, 07:05:05 pm »
However, keep in mind one other thing: I'm only speculating here that people who believed a fake news story were probably already voting for Trump and simply used that false evidence to further entrench an existing belief.

It was the false news in the primaries, which was far more widely disseminated and demonstrably false (ahem, National Enquirer), that was probably more influential.

I'd buy that. All I'm saying is that aside from the actual fake news, the mindless sheep form their opinions based on their social circles. High school never ends. If their Facebook friends all hate puppies, then they hate puppies too in order to stay 'popular' in their crowd. And likewise, if all their friends hate candidate X, they hate candidate X as well.

Offline Hondo69

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Re: Study: Fake News Had Virtually No Effect On Election
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2017, 09:46:41 am »
My confidence interval tells me something different.

These eggheads concocted an equation in order to quantify fake news.  That's one approach I guess, but it seems to me emotion does not lend itself to a mathematical equation very well.  I could be wrong but it just doesn't pass the smell test for me.

A scientist in a laboratory can measure exact amount of chemicals that go into making Silly Putty, for example.  They can add a little of this or subtract a little of that, but the key is they can accurately measure each portion for each experiment as they go along.  I just don't see how you can measure fake news to any degree of accuracy.

What if CNN buried a pile of stories on Hillary Clinton's poor health?  It's just a hypothetical of course, but would Bernie have been the candidate instead of Hillary?  Does a non-event (burying stories) qualify as fake news if the news was never made public?

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Let's flip this whole thing on its head and approach it from the other angle.  Suppose I set out to prove fake news affected the last two presidential elections.  And not only did fake news affect the elections but they were actually the deciding factor.  Could I do it?

Probably.  On one hand it would be relatively easy to prove that the Obama/Romney election was decided by fake news.  On the other hand, not so easy at all for the recent election.  Two different animals completely, but it would most likely hinge upon my personal definition of fake news.

Still, I could probably accomplish the task if my goal from the beginning was to prove a preconceived conclusion.