Amid a calculated and proactive realignment by Russia and China ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump, Europe appears tense and scattered. The Gulf states seem to be waiting in limbo, without a preemptive strategy. Iran appears vigilant, eager to preserve its regional gains and protect itself from the new U.S. administration that seems intent to scrutinize its every action. The UN has launched a new era with the inauguration of its new Secretary General Antonio Guterres earlier this month, amid reinvigorated efforts by the Security Council and international envoys in conflict zones from Libya to Yemen via Syria. Russia has commandeered the Syrian issue from the UN in Geneva, and taken it to its backyard in Astana, Kazakhstan, deliberately excluding the international organization from the Syrian peace process. The Gulf countries have responded by clinging to the UN role and resolutions, and by renewing their wager on the partnership with Europe in rejecting Russia’s hijacking of the issue and refusing to reward Moscow by allowing the talks in Astana to succeed, betting instead on their failure.
Washington is still familiarizing itself with the new president as it bids farewell to the 44th president, Barack Hussein Obama, amid a deep division among Americans regarding the identity of their country at home and its foreign policy, especially with regard to its leadership of the world and US-Russian relations. The 45th president, Donald J Trump, will enter the White House next week, in the middle of a storm of controversy, apprehension, but also enthusiasm from his uncritical supporters. He enters the White House armed with threats against the media and his ability to stir up social media. Meanwhile, the unprecedentedly public rift between the president-elect and U.S. intelligence services over alleged leaks and Russian hacking shows no sign of healing.
All indications suggest Trump will keep his campaign promises, unless his cabinet and the establishment manage to restrain his arbitrary tendencies. His nominee for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has given the House of Representatives a glimpse of his attitudes and convictions, but also made it clear that he had not coordinated in advance those positions with Trump, and that the final decision will be in the president’s hands. The priorities listed by Tillerson indicate that he desires a partnership with Russia against the terrorism of ISIS and similar groups, and fighting the rise of Sunni and Shiite radicalism alike including the Muslim Brotherhood, unlike the Obama administration which he blamed for supporting radical Islamism and the rise of ISIS, and the implications of the U.S. abandoning its global leadership and traditional alliances especially in the Middle East. Tillerson vowed that Iran would be under a microscope, whether with regard to its support for extremists and militias, or its implementation of its commitments under the nuclear deal, which will be kept in place apparently contrary to what was suggested on the campaign trail, but will be reviewed. The nominee appeared to be a pragmatist, well verses in the language if strategic interests, bringing to the post his experience in energy and geography. Tillerson also had a lot to say about Russia and China.
www.huffingtonpost.com/raghida.../a-new-joint-message-from_b_14180560.html
