Nasa Scientists predict 99.9% chance of MAJOR Quake in California in 2 years

[Quix]

I think I'll bump the headline source to down below and go with this one at the top:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-swarm-20160930-snap-story.html

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It marked only the third time since earthquake sensors were installed there in 1932 that the area had seen such a swarm, and this one had more earthquakes than the events of 2001 and 2009.
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The San Andreas fault's southernmost stretch has not ruptured since about 1680--more than 330 years ago, scientists estimate. And a big earthquake happens on average in this area once every 150 or 200 years, so experts think the region is long overdue for a major quake.
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. . .

I gather the risk has diminished since the earlier report.

Risk of big earthquake on San Andreas fault rises after quake swarm at Salton Sea

Also: another youtuber pontificator:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiAn-OYI0dU


https://youtu.be/9pEO9TpN6Wc


Claiming an inside source asserting that inside experts were predicting a huge quake on the S. A. Fault . . .





https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBEks1ywq64

These characters sound like a trip . . . but the info is still more than a little interesting.

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. . .
A HUGE earthquake is 99.9 per cent likely to hit Los Angeles within the next two years, scientists from NASA have said.
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NASA is virtually certain of an earthquake
The group’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena have warned a series of mini-tremors beneath the surface of the City of Angels have caused pressure to build-up.
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In 2014, a 5.1 magnitude earthquake hit the town of La Habra in southern California and the experts from NASA say that there is still some left over strain from that, which will almost definitely hit before April 2018.
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JPL geophysicist Dr Andrea Donnellan said: “When the La Habra earthquake happened, it was relieving some of that stress, and it actually shook some of the upper sediments in the LA basin and moved those a little bit more.
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. . .

There must be a better source out there for such claims. But it's interesting . . . given all the givens.

[Quix]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqmmBcWcYrI

San Andreas Seismic Shift Predicting Massive California Earthquake

Published on Jun 23, 2016
Seismologists are predicting a major earthquake along the San Andreas fault. This is due to the fact parts of California are rising along the fault line while other areas are lowering. Specifically, the Los Angeles Basin, San Diego County, Orange County and Bakersfield are sinking 2 to 3 millimeters a year, while Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo and San Bernadino counties are rising. When will the next major event happen? . . .

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubgUx0ealgk
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Seismic increase off California alarms earthquake experts . . .
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Published on Oct 4, 2016
Seismologist explains alarm caused by activity from San Andreas fault line on 'Happening Now'
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A few hundred quakes . . . oh, he's talking about the same area--the Salton Sea area. Oh well.
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Probability changed from 1 in 6,000 to from 1 in 100 to 1 in 300 for the week considered to have an increased vulnerability.
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Then there's this very colorful and impressive simulation video of a big quake striking LA--from SE of Palm Springs going towards Lancaster and reaching down toward coastal areas in impact--very much worth watching, imho:
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blTx92TuWHA
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The area of the projected 9.x magnitude is huge . . . and the 6.x to 7 to 8 is even larger.
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[Quix]

National Geographic Witness Disaster in Japan
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHHrN8k2ZkQ
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There's a lot of quake videos that I haven't seen before.
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Sobering
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[DB]

There's another quake swarm taking place there right now. There have been a large number of quakes for the last twelve hours or so in Brawly CA. A couple of days ago there was another quake swarm in Nevada north of Mono Lake. There was a 5.5 and two 5.7 followed by hundreds of smaller quakes in that swarm all in about 24 hours.

It is very active over a wide area. It is clearly wound up...

[Quix]

There's another quake swarm taking place there right now. There have been a large number of quakes for the last twelve hours or so in Brawly CA. A couple of days ago there was another quake swarm in Nevada north of Mono Lake. There was a 5.5 and two 5.7 followed by hundreds of smaller quakes in that swarm all in about 24 hours.

It is very active over a wide area. It is clearly wound up...

Wow.

Interesting.

Do you have any links, please?

Thanks.

[DB]

Wow.

Interesting.

Do you have any links, please?

Thanks.

The link below is live. You can pan and zoom to both locations.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22autoUpdate%22%3A%5B%22autoUpdate%22%5D%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22street%22%2C%22feed%22%3A%227day_all%22%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B22.654571520098994%2C-128.759765625%5D%2C%5B45.42929873257377%2C-102.87597656249999%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A%5B%22plates%22%2C%22faults%22%5D%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3A%5B%22restrictListToMap%22%5D%2C%22search%22%3Anull%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22timezone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%5B%22map%22%2C%22settings%22%5D%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22local%22%2C%22searches%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22event%22%3Anull%7D

[Quix]

The link below is live. You can pan and zoom to both locations.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/#%7B%22autoUpdate%22%3A%5B%22autoUpdate%22%5D%2C%22basemap%22%3A%22street%22%2C%22feed%22%3A%227day_all%22%2C%22listFormat%22%3A%22default%22%2C%22mapposition%22%3A%5B%5B22.654571520098994%2C-128.759765625%5D%2C%5B45.42929873257377%2C-102.87597656249999%5D%5D%2C%22overlays%22%3A%5B%22plates%22%2C%22faults%22%5D%2C%22restrictListToMap%22%3A%5B%22restrictListToMap%22%5D%2C%22search%22%3Anull%2C%22sort%22%3A%22newest%22%2C%22timezone%22%3A%22utc%22%2C%22viewModes%22%3A%5B%22map%22%2C%22settings%22%5D%2C%22timeZone%22%3A%22local%22%2C%22searches%22%3A%5B%5D%2C%22event%22%3Anull%7D

Thanks Thanks.

I plan to check it out tomorrow . . . falling asleep in my chair now. Heading to bed.

[Quix]

Thanks again.

Looks like there have been more tremors today but not the last hour. Worth keeping an eye on, imho.

Thanks for the link.

The link below is live. You can pan and zoom to both locations.

[truth_seeker]

La Habra is next to Whittier, site of the Whittier Narrows 1987 quake.

Newport-Inglewood fault lies offshore from Huntington Beach, and was the site of the (misnamed) 1933 Long Beach quake.

Quakes in SoCal tend to be on smaller faults, lateral to the larger San Andreas.

It may be the smaller quakes on the lateral faults, relieve pressure on the big fault, and postpone a major quake thereon.

[Quix]

La Habra is next to Whittier, site of the Whittier Narrows 1987 quake.

Newport-Inglewood fault lies offshore from Huntington Beach, and was the site of the (misnamed) 1933 Long Beach quake.

Quakes in SoCal tend to be on smaller faults, lateral to the larger San Andreas.

It may be the smaller quakes on the lateral faults, relieve pressure on the big fault, and postpone a major quake thereon.

Could it be (I don't  know) just as logical that . . . smaller quakes on lateral faults result in more pressure on the San  Andreas . . . cocking it with more pressure?

[truth_seeker]

Could it be (I don't  know) just as logical that . . . smaller quakes on lateral faults result in more pressure on the San  Andreas . . . cocking it with more pressure?

I have actually studied the subject a bit, and I think it is what I wrote.

At the time of the 1971 Sylmar quake my two bosses were a petroleum reservoir engineer, and a geologist--both with Mater's degrees. I took classes.

Living and working in an area of significant quake activity, we have living, shaking labs for learning.

Best place to be in a quake is a modern building, anchored to bedrock. Or outside well clear of structures.

[Quix]

I have actually studied the subject a bit, and I think it is what I wrote.

At the time of the 1971 Sylmar quake my two bosses were a petroleum reservoir engineer, and a geologist--both with Mater's degrees. I took classes.

Living and working in an area of significant quake activity, we have living, shaking labs for learning.

Best place to be in a quake is a modern building, anchored to bedrock. Or outside well clear of structures.

Thanks for your knowledgeable and experienced reply.

My limited experience includes editing the professional papers for one of Taiwan's top quake oriented geologists.

In Taipei, we didn't lose much sleep over quakes until they got up to about 5.7 to 6.0 or more. At least, not in the better constructed buildings. My apartment was near the mountains so I suspect the foundation was taken down to bedrock.

Much of Taipei is on a flood plain where liquifaction would likely be a big dangerous issue in a big quake.

I don't know how Taipei 101 is constructed. That was after my time there. It may be on the edge of the sediment covered flood plain, as well--a more Southern edge.

What factors determine, in your opinion, that smaller adjacent quakes would relieve stress on say the San Andreas vs result in more pressure loaded onto it? I'm having trouble picturing that. Sorry.

Is it that they allow the San Andreas to move a little near the adjacent quakes?

IIRC, the San Andreas is considered rather locked. And, I think, becoming MORE locked--which--to me, signifies greater pressures as it becomes more locked???

[DB]

Thanks for your knowledgeable and experienced reply.

My limited experience includes editing the professional papers for one of Taiwan's top quake oriented geologists.

In Taipei, we didn't lose much sleep over quakes until they got up to about 5.7 to 6.0 or more. At least, not in the better constructed buildings. My apartment was near the mountains so I suspect the foundation was taken down to bedrock.

Much of Taipei is on a flood plain where liquifaction would likely be a big dangerous issue in a big quake.

I don't know how Taipei 101 is constructed. That was after my time there. It may be on the edge of the sediment covered flood plain, as well--a more Southern edge.

What factors determine, in your opinion, that smaller adjacent quakes would relieve stress on say the San Andreas vs result in more pressure loaded onto it? I'm having trouble picturing that. Sorry.

Is it that they allow the San Andreas to move a little near the adjacent quakes?

IIRC, the San Andreas is considered rather locked. And, I think, becoming MORE locked--which--to me, signifies greater pressures as it becomes more locked???

I'd argue that the more quakes there are straddling the primary fault line at greater and greater distances from it indicates great stress building over a large area. That those surrounding quakes are not releasing the overall stress because the primary fault line isn't slipping but in fact being wound up like a giant spring as more and more twist builds up on both sides of the fault. All that stress/twisting is released when the actual slip area breaks way.

I'm no expert... Just my 2 cents.

[DB]

This is what to fear:

http://scedc.caltech.edu/significant/forttejon1857.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake

It is over due and it is very locked. Unfortunately I'm only about 30 miles from it.

[Quix]

I'd argue that the more quakes there are straddling the primary fault line at greater and greater distances from it indicates great stress building over a large area. That those surrounding quakes are not releasing the overall stress because the primary fault line isn't slipping but in fact being wound up like a giant spring as more and more twist builds up on both sides of the fault. All that stress/twisting is released when the actual slip area breaks way.

I'm no expert... Just my 2 cents.

Thanks. That's easier for me to wrap my mind around and picture.

Appreciated.

[Quix]

This is what to fear:

http://scedc.caltech.edu/significant/forttejon1857.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake

It is over due and it is very locked. Unfortunately I'm only about 30 miles from it.

Thanks. Will probably get to them tomorrow.

Happy sleep.

[Quix]

Still going on today with several the last hour.

I wonder what percentage of such 'swarms' just fade away with no noticeable consequences and what percentage turn out to be precursors of something more serious??? Has anyone ever seen any stats on that issue?

I suppose it would be very idiosyncratic--tailored to each situation at least somewhat.

The link below is live. You can pan and zoom to both locations.

[Quix]

Checked it out.  WOW! ZOWIE! ZOWZERS!

Worth always being alert to or moving away from!

I rewatched a lot of the big Japan quake videos last night.

imho tons of folks in Southern California are wayyyyyyyyyy tooo stoic. Life will NOT go on as usual after the big one hits--not for quite some time--at least for major chunks of society/citizens. imho.

I think some of the geography in So CA is better suited to Tsunami's under 200-300 feet than a lot of the Japan terrain was.

Aren't some experts on record as saying a magnitude 10 quake is impossible?

My own layman's bias is--they don't know near as much about such things as they think they do.

But let's stick in the 9.X range . . . how high a tsunami might a 9.7 cause say off LA or San Diego or San Francisco or Santa Barbara?

I doubt Hearst Castle is in any great danger from most Tsunami's . . . but a lot of coastal areas are not that high up from the beach.

I think La Jolla could be in big trouble. Pt Loma would probably be OK in "moderate" Tsunami's. I'd hope. I have some friends who live there.

I don't  know what the probability stats might be for the San Andreas unzipping from the bottom to the top . . . but that prospect should be leaving some disaster planners with a lot of sleepless nights. I wonder how many millions of people live along that long, wide path. I haven't seen any stats on that.

Though, the oligarchy components would probably be just saying something like "Oh, Yea--millions dead and suffering!" Evil jerks.

This is what to fear:

http://scedc.caltech.edu/significant/forttejon1857.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake

It is over due and it is very locked. Unfortunately I'm only about 30 miles from it.

[Quix]

A partial answer . . . the 6 largest cities along the San Andreas fault comprise a combined population of approximately 2 million. However, that doesn't seem to take into account the LA basin nor San Diego.

[Quix]

https://nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100840

When the San Andreas Fault Moves: Predicting the Effects of a 7.75 Earthquake in the L.A. Basin

This article notes that the swaying, intensity of the ground motion in the LA basin has been determined to likely be greater than earlier anticipated in a big quake. 

[Quix]

Wikipedia link:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Andreas_Fault
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The central segment of the San Andreas fault runs in a northwestern direction from Parkfield to Hollister. While the southern section of the fault and the parts through Parkfield experience earthquakes, the rest of the central section of the fault exhibits a phenomenon called aseismic creep, where the fault slips continuously without causing earthquakes.
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The southern segment, which stretches from Parkfield in Monterey County all the way to the Salton Sea, is capable of an 8.1-magnitude earthquake. At its closest, this fault passes about 35 miles (56 km) to the northeast of Los Angeles. Such a large earthquake on this southern segment would kill thousands of people in Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and surrounding areas, and cause hundreds of billions of dollars in damage.^{[3]
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A study published in 2006 in the journal Nature found that the San Andreas fault has reached a sufficient stress level for an earthquake of magnitude greater than 7.0 on the moment magnitude scale to occur.^[11] This study also found that the risk of a large earthquake may be increasing more rapidly than scientists had previously believed. Moreover, the risk is currently concentrated on the southern section of the fault, i.e. the region around Los Angeles, because massive earthquakes have occurred relatively recently on the central (1857) and northern (1906) segments of the fault, while the southern section has not seen any similar rupture for at least 300 years.
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According to this study, a massive earthquake on that southern section of the San Andreas fault would result in major damage to the Palm Springs-Indio metropolitan area and other cities in San Bernardino, Riverside and Imperial counties in California, and Mexicali Municipality in Baja California. It would be strongly felt (and potentially cause major damage) throughout much of Southern California, including densely populated areas of Los Angeles County, Ventura County, Orange County, San Diego County, Ensenada Municipality and Tijuana Municipality, Baja California, San Luis Rio Colorado in Sonora and Yuma, Arizona. Older buildings would be especially prone to damage or collapse, as would buildings built on unconsolidated gravel or in coastal areas where water tables are high (and thus subject to soil liquefaction).   . . .
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. . . The same report also estimated there is a 7% probability that an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater will occur in the next 30 years somewhere along the San Andreas fault.^[13] A different USGS study in 2008 tried to assess the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California. That study predicted that a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southern San Andreas Fault could cause about 1,800 deaths and $213 billion in damage.^[14]
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Scientists believe quakes on the Cascadia subduction zone may have triggered most of the major quakes on the northern San Andreas within the past 3,000 years. The evidence also shows the rupture direction going from north to south in each of these time-correlated events. However the 1906 San Francisco earthquake seems to have been the exception to this correlation because the plate movement was moved mostly from south to north and it was not preceded by a major quake in the Cascadia zone.<sup>[15]

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[Quix]

Maps for CA and San Andreas:
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http://sanandreasfault.org/Maps.html

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6,300 quakes in 2015 in CA

http://time.com/3971553/meet-the-people-living-on-the-san-andreas-fault-line/

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What Will Really Happen When San Andreas Unleashes The Big One?

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/what-will-really-happen-california-when-san-andreas-unleashes-big-one-180955432/
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 The Big One: 'Large scale motion' detected along San Andreas fault Published time: 21 Jun, 2016 12:07

https://www.rt.com/usa/347607-san-andreas-motion-detected/

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http://time.com/4378706/computer-image-san-andreas-fault/
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Computer Imagery Shows California Is Moving Around the San Andreas Fault.

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The study found that while much of the Los Angeles Basin is sinking—by a mere two to three millimeters annually—that other areas to the north and west are rising, such as Santa Barbara and parts of San Bernardino County.

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http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/safod_pbo.php
.San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth

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[truth_seeker]

The epicenter of the 1933 Long Beach quake, is offshore from my home just a few miles.

A neighbor of mine claims the fault crosses their yard, but I doubt this. More likely they have seen local geology mapping, which has lots of faulting, and decided it makes a good story.

Sylmar (1971) and Northridge (1994) quakes were both in/near the San Fernando Valley, and caused a lot of property damage, and loss of life.

I accept that a big one might occur during my lifetime.  I used to work with an older guy who was home from work in 19933 Long Beach, and he said it knocked him off his feet. The damage and loss of life was mainly from unreinforced masonry buildings.

(for laypersons, this means bricks and mortar, without reinforcements like rebar or better. In California many of such structures have been replaced, or upgraded-at significant cost).

Loss of life in zones of liquefaction can be reduced by improved "sheer" reinforcements. 

I am sticking with my story, that smaller quakes on lateral faults postpone "The Big One." But it will come one day.

If I am indoors, I will head for the central hallway in house. If outdoors I will get away from structures.

[Quix]

The epicenter of the 1933 Long Beach quake, is offshore from my home just a few miles.

A neighbor of mine claims the fault crosses their yard, but I doubt this. More likely they have seen local geology mapping, which has lots of faulting, and decided it makes a good story.

Sylmar (1971) and Northridge (1994) quakes were both in/near the San Fernando Valley, and caused a lot of property damage, and loss of life.

I accept that a big one might occur during my lifetime.  I used to work with an older guy who was home from work in 19933 Long Beach, and he said it knocked him off his feet. The damage and loss of life was mainly from unreinforced masonry buildings.

(for laypersons, this means bricks and mortar, without reinforcements like rebar or better. In California many of such structures have been replaced, or upgraded-at significant cost).

Loss of life in zones of liquefaction can be reduced by improved "sheer" reinforcements. 

I am sticking with my story, that smaller quakes on lateral faults postpone "The Big One." But it will come one day.

If I am indoors, I will head for the central hallway in house. If outdoors I will get away from structures.

Sounds reasonable to me. Congrats on your awareness.