Author Topic: Political Lessons of 2016 -Dick Morris  (Read 262 times)

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Offline Idaho_Cowboy

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Political Lessons of 2016 -Dick Morris
« on: November 14, 2016, 06:35:47 pm »
Political Lessons of 2016
By Dick Morris
Published Nov. 14, 2016

The 2016 election is heralding a new Republican Party and a sharp reversal of roles. The Democratic Party is now the one for the rich and the GOP is now the party of the less privileged.
But the election also betokens major changes in political science, which any student of the process must examine.
—The era of the negative ad is dying. Hillary Clinton's wall-to-wall attack ads did almost nothing to dent Donald Trump's vote share. She drowned Trump in negative ads, outspending him by more than 5-1, entirely monopolizing the airwaves until the final four weeks of the contest. Yet voters discounted the negatives. When the free media reflected news about Trump — the "Access Hollywood" audiotape or the women who charged him with sexual assault — The Donald's vote share dropped predictably. But when Hillary sought to keep the issues alive through negative ads or to resurrect the embarrassing quotes from Trump's past, it just didn't work....

Read more at http://www.jewishworldreview.com/1116/morris111416.php3#WFWXv4o0E7Uh2IBW.99
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Offline r9etb

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Re: Political Lessons of 2016 -Dick Morris
« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2016, 07:47:25 pm »
Political Lessons of 2016

Some interesting insights, though I suspect he's overselling some of the lessons.  In a lot of ways this election was probably an aberration. 

For example, when he says, "The era of the negative ad is dying," one wonders if negative advertising would have been more effective if Hillary Clinton wasn't also awful.  I think that people applied a very steep automatic discount this year -- "Trump is horrible, Clinton is horrible, it's a wash."  Negative messaging could be more effective if the election pits a reputable candidate against a reprobate. 

Moreover, I think Trump's negative ads were probably quite effective.  They were very well done, and quickly responded to current news.  Trump's ads focused on Clinton's policy failures and criminal actions.  And, because he saved them for the last three weeks of the campaign they were also fresh. 

As for "passion and enthusiasm," I think Morris is misreading the mood of the electorate.  Trump won, despite his negatives, because Trump wasn't what people were voting for.  People were voting their frustrations; and Trump, as "not part of the system" was their chance to do so.  (I'm talking perceptions here...)

Finally, advertising -- including in the free and social media, as well as TV.  People certainly don't trust it, but perhaps it's because of the messaging, rather than the medium.  Speaking for myself, I find that it's a lot easier to pay attention to positive ads that focus on "I'm going to do these things."  I found Gary Johnson's ads, and some of Trump's, to be effective for just that reason.  Clinton ran very few of these -- she had no palatable policies, so my recollection is that her positive ads tended to focus on vague personal qualities that were clearly at odds with her behavior.