Analysis: Six Thoughts on Donald Trump's Breathtaking, Surreal Upset Victory - Guy Benson

[TomSea]

Analysis: Six Thoughts on Donald Trump's Breathtaking, Surreal Upset Victory
Guy Benson
Posted: Nov 09, 2016 5:01 AM

 Business mogul Donald J. Trump has been elected the 45th President of the United States.  The act of writing that factual sentence represents the surreal culmination of a surreal election cycle, the likes of which the country has never witnessed. A few thoughts:

(1) This was an upset of epic proportions. Needless to say, based on all of the available data -- including, reportedly, to the Trump campaign itself -- most analysis did not see this coming.  Myself very much included. Based on polling and electoral models, the GOP nominee looked like he needed to win every state carried by Mitt Romney in 2012, flip Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, then find a way to break through Clinton's "blue firewall" to cobble together the remaining electoral tallies. I called this plausible and laid out an accurate road map to how it could happen, but did not believe he would pull it off. Not only did he do so, he burned the so-called firewall to the ground. He won Wisconsin. He won Pennsylvania, he won an electoral vote in Maine. And as of this writing (5:00 am ET), he may yet win Michigan and/or New Hampshire. These are feats no Republican presidential ticket has accomplished in decades. The state-level polling was wrong. The data was wrong. The models were wrong.  Hidden Trump voters were real.  Rally sizes were indicative of the enthusiasm gap.  An inferior ground game didn't matter. Getting outspent by a lot didn't matter (the consecutive low-budget vanquishing of Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton destroyed the Left's "money runs politics" meme). Having an unfavorable rating of roughly 60 percent, with large majorities rejecting his qualifications and temperament, didn't matter.  A sizable chunk of those people voted for him anyway.  Much, much more on all of these details to come, but for now, NBC's Mark Murray summed things up rather well:

Read More At: http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/11/09/analysis-six-thoughts-on-donald-trumps-breathtaking-surreal-upset-victory-n2243477

[bolobaby]

Best analysis I've read yet, although I disagree slightly with this one:

"The Republican Party's victory was extraordinary and comprehensive across the board."

Things that would have made this true:

1. Trump won an actual majority of voters.
2. We didn't actually lose house seats.
3. We didn't actually lose senate seats.

[Frank Cannon]

Best analysis I've read yet, although I disagree slightly with this one:

"The Republican Party's victory was extraordinary and comprehensive across the board."

Things that would have made this true:

1. Trump won an actual majority of voters.
2. We didn't actually lose house seats.
3. We didn't actually lose senate seats.

We should have lost a lot more just as a natural ebb and flow to these seats. This low level of loss was stunning to me.

[bolobaby]

We should have lost a lot more just as a natural ebb and flow to these seats. This low level of loss was stunning to me.

@Frank Cannon

Think about where that puts us, though, when we start talking about not losing badly as a major victory.

[Frank Cannon]

@Frank Cannon

Think about where that puts us, though, when we start talking about not losing badly as a major victory.

What do you mean? Holding the congress is a big deal no matter what. A lot of House seats we picked up in '14 were tenuous at best.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The entire House is up every two years, which means that you actually must win a majority of races to have a majority.  Just because the victory margin wasn't as large as it was last time doesn't mean it isn't a victory.  We still actually won a majority of races.

[bolobaby]

@Maj. Bill Martin

A good point, although we do know that incumbents have an edge.

I also believe the Dems are quite vulnerable in the Senate in the next election.

[r9etb]

I also believe the Dems are quite vulnerable in the Senate in the next election.

That depends a lot on the political environment in the year prior.  If Trump does well, then the GOP will be OK.

However, if Trump does poorly, then the GOP will get squashed in the mid-terms unless they take steps to distance themselves from him.

The D's and the media are going to go all-out to ensure the latter.

[Fishrrman]

bolobaby wrote:
"Think about where that puts us, though, when we start talking about not losing badly as a major victory."

Considering that the Republicans now control both houses of Congress and the presidency, I'd have to designate that as "a major victory".

Probably the greatest upset since 1994.

Even moreso, considering what the "consensus" was around this forum only three days ago.

[truth_seeker]

bolobaby wrote:
"Think about where that puts us, though, when we start talking about not losing badly as a major victory."

Considering that the Republicans now control both houses of Congress and the presidency, I'd have to designate that as "a major victory".

Probably the greatest upset since 1994.

Even moreso, considering what the "consensus" was around this forum only three days ago.

The consensus around this forum was, simply stated, full of bull.

"This forum" fell victim, to an all out effort to steer a certain agenda.

I believe the "Deacon" (aka sinkspur) has left the venue, and won't be performing here.