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Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« on: November 09, 2016, 03:32:46 pm »
 The Hill
Jonathan Easley

Pollsters and election modelers suffered an industry-shattering embarrassment at the hands of Donald Trump on Tuesday night.

Trump had long said the polls were biased against him. His claims - dismissed and mocked by the experts - turned out to be true.

"It's going to put the polling industry out of business," said CNN anchor Jake Tapper. "It's going to put the voter projection industry out of business."

Going into Election Day, a strong majority of pollsters and election modelers forecast that Hillary Clinton would coast to victory, with many predicting she would sweep the battlegrounds and win north of 300 electoral votes.

The final University of Virginia Center for Politics model had Clinton winning 322 electoral votes to 216 for Trump, with Clinton winning Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin - all states that she lost.

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http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pollsters-suffer-huge-embarrassment/ar-AAk4TxS?ocid=spartandhp
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Offline TomSea

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Re: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« Reply #1 on: November 09, 2016, 03:36:06 pm »
I think a large part of this was the "hidden" Trump vote.

Also, as said, having rallies, month after month that are crazy large with overflow crowds had to mean something.

I figured it would mean he'd do at least better than Mitt, whom I fully supported as the candidate.

But I wasn't sure about breaking through the Blue Wall.
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Offline Just_Victor

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Re: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2016, 03:36:07 pm »

I think the IBD/TIPP organization emerges unscathed.

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Offline Jazzhead

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Re: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2016, 03:38:02 pm »
The mainstream media's crusade to shame all who claimed to support Trump came back to bite pollsters in the ass.  It's quite obvious that folks claimed to pollsters they were undecided, or supported third party candidates, rather than reveal their affinity for Trump.   Same phenomenon as with polling just prior to Brexit.
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2016, 03:39:56 pm »
Quote from: TomSea on November 09, 2016, 03:36:06 pm
I think a large part of this was the "hidden" Trump vote.

Also, as said, having rallies, month after month that are crazy large with overflow crowds had to mean something.

I figured it would mean he'd do at least better than Mitt, whom I fully supported as the candidate.

But I wasn't sure about breaking through the Blue Wall.

Trump will receive fewer actual votes than both McCain and Romney.
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Offline cato potatoe

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Re: Pollsters suffer huge embarrassment
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2016, 04:00:54 pm »
If she wins the popular vote by a point, the RCP average was only off by 2.  Most of it showed up in the midwest, where the turnout models clearly were wrong in 2014 as well as 2016.
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