Without Florida, a Trump victory is all but impossible.Nico Pitney
11/07/2016 09:02 am ET
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/florida-early-vote-2016_us_58200106e4b0e80b02cae01c?section=us_politicsFlorida voters surged to the polls on Sunday, shattering all-time turnout records in at least three of the battleground state’s most populous and heavily Democratic counties on the final day of early voting.
Victory in Florida is essential for Republican nominee Donald Trump to have any chance of winning the White House. But analysts said the voters who turned out in historic numbers this weekend have likely given Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, a critical edge heading into Election Day.
“I do believe this thing is tracking towards a Clinton victory,” wrote Steve Schale, a respected Florida Democratic strategist who has been following early returns closely.
A Republican consultant in the state, David Johnson, said he believed Clinton could win by as much as three points, thanks in part to the shortcomings of his own party’s get-out-the-vote efforts.
“We used to have a great statewide operation,” Johnson told the Naples Daily News. “Now I’m not convinced that’s going on, because I don’t see the evidence. And I see it on the Democrats’ and their allies’ side.”
Roughly 6.4 million people have already voted in Florida, a record high number that will likely make up about two-thirds of the final electorate, experts said. President Barack Obama won the state in 2012 by just 74,000 votes.
One week ago, early returns had Democrats fretting. Turnout among black voters was lagging, and while Latinos were submitting ballots in large numbers, so were white voters seen as more likely to support Trump.
Those trends shifted during the last four days. Black turnout jumped substantially, boosted by Obama’s multiple Florida visits and Sunday’s “souls to the polls” voting drive led by black churches.
Black turnout in Florida will end up higher than in 2012, Daniel Smith, a University of Florida political science professor and election data analyst, predicted on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the state’s Latino turnout accelerated. The number of Latinos who voted in person through Saturday was up fully 100 percent from 2012. It appears likely that more Latinos in Florida will have voted early in 2016 than they voted overall in 2012.(more at link)
