Pollster John Zogby sees shades of 2012 race — in reverse; trend could be bad sign for Clinton

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: WASHINGTON TIMES

URL: http://washingtontimes.com/news/2016/nov/6/pollster-john-zogby-sees-shades-2012-reverse/

By Ralph Z. Hallow - The Washington Times - Sunday, November 6, 2016


Veteran pollster John Zogby sent out an “Uh-oh” alert Saturday night noting that heading into Sunday, two key voting groups that had shifted toward Barack Obama by the Saturday before the 2012 election — and that gave him his landslide victory — were not moving Democrat Hillary Clinton’s way four days before Tuesday’s election.

“Donald Trump will win if kids and blacks stay home,” Mr. Zogby said in response to an email from The Washington Times.

In his emailed alert that something was up with the electorate, Mr. Zogby refers to the segments of the electorate that propelled Mr. Obama to a big win in an election campaign that seesawed between him and Mr. Romney in what looked like a very tight race.

“The two groups were 18-29 year olds and self-identified members of the ‘Creative Class’ were clearly moving in the president’s direction both nationwide and in the battleground states,” he said.

But here’s what Mr. Zogby sees as of Saturday night:

“After serious doubts expressed among mainstream and traditional conservative Republicans about nominee Donald Trump, it looks like he is polling about 90 percent of self-identified Republicans, exactly where a party standard-bearer needs to be"

Second, young African Americans “are not quite in Clinton’s Camp – this is a serious cause for concern among supporters of Mrs. Clinton. The New York Times/CBS Poll published this past Thursday, shows her leading Mr. Trump 82 percent to 3 percent, which has been reported as huge.”

Sure it’s huge, said Mr. Zogby, but it also means that 15 percent are still not sure about her or are supporting someone else.

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[bolobaby]

Wait - I can't remember - is Zogby a conservative polling hero or demon?

So hard to keep up...

[sinkspur]

Zogby is chronically wrong in his predictions and his polling.

The fact is, Latino turnout is already at historic highs and those will be Clinton supporters.

Trump is at 89% Republican support.  Romney was at 93% and lost.

The biggest factor working against Trump is that he is losing college-educated whites (who vote religiously) by 8 points.  No Republican candidate has lost this demographic since 1936.

[geronl]

kids don't vote, johnny

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Zogby was famous for predicting John Kerry would win in November 2004 IIRC.

[kevindavis007]

Zogby is chronically wrong in his predictions and his polling.

The fact is, Latino turnout is already at historic highs and those will be Clinton supporters.

Trump is at 89% Republican support.  Romney was at 93% and lost.

The biggest factor working against Trump is that he is losing college-educated whites (who vote religiously) by 8 points.  No Republican candidate has lost this demographic since 1936.

I think that Trump will be Barry Goldwater II or even worse.

[bolobaby]

I think that Trump will be Barry Goldwater II or even worse.

Goldwater was a conservative, so bad analogy.