Nate Silver: Clinton one state away from losing Electoral College

[mystery-ak]

November 06, 2016, 10:10 am
Nate Silver: Clinton one state away from losing Electoral College

By Jessie Hellmann



Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said Sunday.

While the Democratic nominee has a  65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not "in a terribly safe position," the pollster said on ABC's "This Week."

"The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago," Silver said.

Silver came to notoriety by correctly predicting Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012.

Clinton is weaker among Midwestern voters while Obama had leads in states like Ohio.

In FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Clinton has the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House.

"Clinton has about 270, so she's one state away from losing the Electoral College," he said.

"You would rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump, but she's not in a terribly safe position."

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304551-nate-silver-clinton-one-state-away-from-losing-electoral

[sinkspur]

To protect his reputation, Silver will call the election for Clinton tomorrow, and he will be correct.  Trump has to run the table on every toss-up and leaning D state, and he simply can't do that.

It's not going to be close.

[libertybele]

Unless they actually manage to indict her today or tomorrow, she will be our next POTUS.

[Charlespg]

November 06, 2016, 10:10 am
Nate Silver: Clinton one state away from losing Electoral College

By Jessie Hellmann



Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the election, FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver said Sunday.

While the Democratic nominee has a  65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not "in a terribly safe position," the pollster said on ABC's "This Week."

"The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago," Silver said.

Silver came to notoriety by correctly predicting Obama's victories in 2008 and 2012.

Clinton is weaker among Midwestern voters while Obama had leads in states like Ohio.

In FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, Clinton has the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House.

"Clinton has about 270, so she's one state away from losing the Electoral College," he said.

"You would rather be in her shoes than Donald Trump, but she's not in a terribly safe position."

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/304551-nate-silver-clinton-one-state-away-from-losing-electoral

she will cheat her way into the white house its what clintons do,

[andy58-in-nh]

Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is the key. If Trump loses there, he would have to win both Colorado (9 EV) and Pennsylvania (20 EV) to have a shot.
And that is a long shot - like trying to knock the cap off a bottle with a .22 at 100 yards.   

[bolobaby]

The pattern here is simple: keep talking about the "tightening" race, but always with Clinton the one in the lead. That way, when she wins, the narrative will be, "Trump got close, but he just couldn't close the gap in time."

Truth serum: There was never any doubt that Clinton would beat Trump. This is all Kabuki Theater to grant some appearance of legitimacy to the process. Trump will lose because that's what the press wanted all along. Instead of allowing the GOP to nominate someone with a real chance, they gave Trump all the "free press" he wanted to get him nominated, and are now giggling to themselves over the havoc they have wrought.

Enjoy - Trumpettes. You bought into this charade, hook, line, and sinker.

[Fishrrman]

andy wrote:
"Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is the key. If Trump loses there, he would have to win both Colorado (9 EV) and Pennsylvania (20 EV) to have a shot."

Correct analysis.

But... even if Trump wins Florida along with the other states he's expected to win... that leaves him at .... 269.

But wait!
There's that one Congressional district up in Maine that is pro-Trump (the other c.d.'s there are pro-hillary).
Since Maine awards its electors proportionally, that gets Trump to.... 270!

So yes… it all pretty much boils down to Florida on Tuesday.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

andy wrote:
"Florida, with its 29 electoral votes, is the key. If Trump loses there, he would have to win both Colorado (9 EV) and Pennsylvania (20 EV) to have a shot."

Correct analysis.

But... even if Trump wins Florida along with the other states he's expected to win... that leaves him at .... 269.

But wait!
There's that one Congressional district up in Maine that is pro-Trump (the other c.d.'s there are pro-hillary).
Since Maine awards its electors proportionally, that gets Trump to.... 270!

So yes… it all pretty much boils down to Florida on Tuesday.

Last time Hillary got off, Trump's poll numbers went up. 


For the record, I think Trump is losing right now, too many self-inflicted wounds.


Just throwing that out there though.

[sinkspur]

Go to fivethirtyeight.com.  Silver has Hillary at 290 EVs and a 65% odds of winning.

[sinkspur]

Trump just said in PA "If I lose, our movement will die."

One can only hope.

[Norm Lenhart]

To protect his reputation, Silver will call the election for Clinton tomorrow, and he will be correct.  Trump has to run the table on every toss-up and leaning D state, and he simply can't do that.

It's not going to be close.

If there's any bright spot in this disaster, it's that both parties have thoroughly destroyed themselves with young voters. I'd bet that the so called 'two party' system has, at best, one more sham presidential election in it.

[Norm Lenhart]

Trump just said in PA "If I lose, our movement will die."

One can only hope.

I guess he really wants Hillary to win, handing out incentive like that.