Not so fast: Catholic votes may be shifting to Trump

[TomSea]

Not so fast: Catholic votes may be shifting to Trump

Despite most surveys putting Clinton solidly ahead with Catholic voters, one top daily tracking poll is now showing Trump with a lead, often by double digits. As of Nov. 2, it had Trump ahead of Clinton among Catholics by 13 percentage points – 50 percent to 37 percent.

Over and over again, public opinion polls have showed Hillary Clinton ahead with Catholic voters. Like everything else in this topsy-turvy election, however, that trend is less clear than it seems, and may have shifted in recent days.

Historically, whoever wins the Catholic vote wins the presidency. It’s seen as a key bellwether, even if the Catholic vote itself is not monolithic.

Practicing Catholics tend to hold more socially conservative views than the general population, while non-practicing Catholics tend to hold more socially liberal views. Still, the overall Catholic vote is seen as predictive, and most polls that showed a cross-tab for Catholics have shown Clinton ahead.

A PRRI poll, for instance, made headlines this week for showing Clinton with a commanding 11 point lead among Catholic voters.

Read More At: https://cruxnow.com/church-in-the-usa/2016/11/03/not-fast-catholic-votes-may-shifting-trump/

[TomSea]

Clinton and staff were shown to voice some anti-Catholic views; oh well, we can be sure some in the peanut gallery are quiet on this.

Trump's big lead indeed would seem to include Hispanics if this poll is right.  They make up a large part of the Catholic Church.

[sinkspur]

Nope.  Dig down in this poll and you find that the number of Catholics polled is too low to be a representative sample. 

This is the only poll that shows this result.  So much for IBD/TIPP's accuracy.