Harper Polling Race for President -- Pennsylvania: Trump and Hillary TIED !

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: HARPER POLLING RACE FOR THE PRESIDENCY

URL: http://harperpolling.com/polls/pennsylvania-statewide-poll--11-2-3#PresidentTIE


With signs of the race trending Trump in the waning days of the campaign, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are tied in the Keystone state (46-46%, 2% Johnson, 1% Stein, 4% Undecided). Clinton has a steady lead with women (49% Clinton-44% Trump) while Trump has expanded his advantage with men (43-49%, 9/22: 42-44%). Independents prefer Trump (26-46%) but self-identified Moderates choose Clinton (57-31%).

Q: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for: Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson OR Green Party candidate Jill Stein?

Trump 46%
Clinton 46%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%
Undecided 4%

Battleground Pittsburgh

In September we identified the Pittsburgh/Southwest region as a key indicator of the trends of the race. Donald Trump now leads there by 6%, after previously trailing Clinton by 3%. The other regional patterns are generally stable.



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[SirLinksALot]

RACE FOR THE SENATE

Senate Ballot​

Senator Pat Toomey (44%) and Democrat Katie McGinty (44%) are tied heading into Election Day (6% Clifford, 5% undecided). Toomey has a slight intensity advantage (40% definitely Toomey-38% definitely McGinty). Toomey earns a majority of the vote in the Northern Tier (53-35%), Pittsburgh/Southwest (51-36%) and South Central (65-25%) regions and leads by a smaller 4% margin in Scranton/Lehigh valley (47-43%). McGinty leads with 62% of the vote in Philadelphia/Southeast (27-62%). Like Trump, Toomey has taken the lead in Pittsburgh/Southwest since September (9/22: 34-49% McGinty). Republicans are narrowly more supportive of Toomey (78%) than Democrats are of McGinty (75%). Toomey earns a majority of the Independent vote (55-23%) but McGinty does the same with Moderates (31-52%).

Q: If the election for United States Senate were held today, who would you vote for: Democrat Katie McGinty, Republican Pat Toomey, or Libertarian Edward Clifford?

Definitely Toomey 40%
Definitely McGinty 38%
Probably McGinty 6%
Probably Toomey 4%
Clifford 6%
Undecided 5%

[sinkspur]

RCP has Clinton up 3.5.

[jmyrlefuller]

There were polls showing MI and WI with Romney in the lead in 2012 right around this time, too... from the same obscure pollsters who came out of nowhere.