Donald Trump Surges To 12 Point Lead In Texas

[ABX]

I don't know about the polls, all I know is that a lot of my acquaintances that were solidly NeverTrumps at one time have come around in the past few weeks.     So at the very least Trump seems to be solidifying the base.     Now it's up to the independents.

I've seen about 10-20 percent of my Never Trump acquantances shift with all the Hillary criminality lately, I've also seen some on the fence, but at the same time, that doesn't make up for the ones who have said that T crossed uncrossable lines for them in the past few months on various issues.

At this point, I don't want to predict a thing. This is a bizarre election cycle. I still think Trump has a chance due to the pop culture, LIV voting bocks who usually never turn out, but do now because they watched a reality show.

[aligncare]

Romney beat Obama by 16 in Texas.

This is losing ground. As CSM pointed out, those are McCain level numbers who won Texas by 12.

In tight races, a candidate can't afford to lose ground, especially losing ground to prior losses.

I'm sorry, but aren't you being a bit premature? You're introducing facts not in evidence.

I thought the only poll that counts is what actually shakes out on Election Day? Jumping the gun, there, i.e. until the vote is counted, that's pure speculation on your part...but, that's always been #NeverTrump's MO anyway.

[CSM]

I'm sorry, but aren't you being a bit premature? You're introducing facts not in evidence.

I thought the only poll that counts is what actually shakes out on Election Day? Jumping the gun, there, i.e. until the vote is counted, that's pure speculation on your part...but, that's always been #NeverTrump's MO anyway.

This entire thread is regarding a "pre election poll."  Are you saying that we can't use historical facts to discuss some pro-Trump celebration of a speculative poll?

[ABX]

I'm sorry, but aren't you being a bit premature? You're introducing facts not in evidence.

I thought the only poll that counts is what actually shakes out on Election Day? Jumping the gun, there, i.e. until the vote is counted, that's pure speculation on your part...but, that's always been #NeverTrump's MO anyway.

Historical trends are the definition of measurable facts because they are evidence of prior results based on given data. Without that, the discussion is more about belief, not facts. Your point is like what the global warming proponents use, just judge their predictive modeling, don't look at past data.

[aligncare]

This entire thread is regarding a "pre election poll."  Are you saying that we can't use historical facts to discuss some pro-Trump celebration of a speculative poll?

Comparing what had occurred i.e. McCain's election day totals, with Trump's pre-election polls, is introducing facts not in evidence. Only after Election Day can those two be fairly compared.

[ABX]

Comparing what had occurred i.e. McCain's election day totals, with Trump's pre-election polls, is introducing facts not in evidence. Only after Election Day can those two be fairly compared.

If that is the historical result you want to compare, then it looks even worse. Both Romney and McCain lost ground from the pre-election poll compared to final result from this time prior to the election.

Romney was up by 17, won by 16. So he lost a point from pre-election poll to final result.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/tx/texas_romney_vs_obama-1945.html

McCain was up by 13, won by 12, so he also lost a point from pre-election poll to final result.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_mccain_vs_obama-628.html

If we use pre-election poll trends, that means Trump will win Texas by 11, or a 5 point reduction over Romney's win and a 1 point reduction over McCain's win. Losing ground is not a positive trend in a tight election.

Would you like to move the goal post again?

[ABX]

Trump surge underway...last chance to get on board the Trump train before election. (Just so you NeverTrumpers can save face and have something to tell you grandchildren, I suggest you make the move now)

You do realize arguments like that are a turn-off to Conservatives and Liberty-Right types, don't you? Traditional Conservatives are individualists and see arguments like that is cult like thinking-- join the crowd because it is popular, join the winning team so you can say you were part of the movement.... To many of  us, we see that as 'hopey changy' type manipulation. That is like our teen daughters trying to convince us to listen to Justin Bieber. It doesn't work as it doesn't provide a rational argument for your case.