SOURCE:
WESTERN JOURNALISMURL:
http://www.westernjournalism.com/new-poll-shows-trump-gaining-ground-with-undecided-voters/by Scott Mason
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has increased nearly 6 percent to statistically tie with Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, according to a new poll published Tuesday.
The poll, administered by Red Oak Strategic, shows that previously undecided voters are the biggest cause for the rise, as Trump received a 5.7 percent increase to Clinton’s 3.5 percent.
The poll also showed that Clinton is currently only earning the votes of 70 percent of those who voted for President Barack Obama in 2012, with ten percent of Obama voters planning to cross party lines and vote for Trump.
The current RealClearPolitics average of major polls are also very close, with Clinton leading Trump 45.3 percent to 43.1 percent.
The RCP average also shows Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson receiving 4.6 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein garnering 2.1 percent.
Election statistics expert Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com says that while his projections show Clinton still ahead, they also indicate that the race is tightening.
“Clinton’s popular vote lead is down to 4.7 percentage points in our forecast, as compared with 5.7 percentage points on Friday and 7.1 percentage points two weeks ago,” he wrote in a blog post Monday.
He continued, “Trump’s chances of winning are 24 percent in the polls-only model, up from 19 percent on Friday and 12 percent two weeks ago. Trump’s chances are 26 percent in the polls-plus model, which is converging with polls-only.”
Silver says that while it is tough to say how much the FBI announcement regarding the re-opening of the Clinton email probe has hurt the Democratic nominee, his projections show that Red Oak Strategic’s findings about Trump gaining ground with undecided voters to be accurate.
“It’s not easy to tell how much of that shift reflects a reaction to Comey, as compared with a race that had been tightening already. And it remains the case that the margin is closing because Trump is gaining ground from undecided voters and third-party candidates, rather than Clinton losing support,” he wrote
Silver says that while Clinton has the upper hand at the moment, the swing state polls will ultimately tell the tale and the race definitely isn’t over yet.
“The fact is, though, that the data we’ve gotten during the past few days is consistent with a reasonably competitive race — although one in which Clinton has the advantage — especially given the significant disagreement in the polls and the relatively high uncertainty surrounding the polling this year,” he wrote.
He continued, “But we also haven’t seen many recent high-quality state polls from states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which are a key part of Clinton’s electoral firewall. The next set of results from those states will go a long way toward determining just how nervous Democrats wind up being. But at this point, the election is a long way from being in the bag for Clinton.”
