Trevor (Dem Drones) Bauer starts for the Indians---master of getting to 3-2 counts, likes to work middle-away to hitters
on both sides, gets more vulnerable when he faces the order a second time around or more.
Jon Lester starts for the Cubs---Career 2.60 postseason ERA; career 1.35 World Series ERA including this year's. He still
hates to throw to first. But he's the one the Cubs want in an elimination game, getting the game to Aroldis Chapman
and/or Hector Rondon without having to give the suddenly-shaky Cub middle relief the ball.
Plate umpire Tony Randazzo more likely to call the inside strike than the outside strike.
For the Cubs:
* Hit smarter, like a team who's got the pitching matchup advantage as they do with Lester v. Bauer. Don't
let aggressiveness equal carelessness.
* Javier Baez needs to stop free swinging and get back to waiting for a hittable pitch. He was putty in the hands
of Cody Allen with deuces wild in the bottom of the ninth in Game Three, ending the game by swinging
violently on ball three.
* The usual sharp Cub defense needs to shake off Game Four and stop trying to play for 27 outs
a throw.
* Manager Joe Maddon needs to quit waiting for the big inning, recognise he's against a manager
going for the throat, pay more attention to the high-leverage situations he gets earlier in the game
and manage accordingly. You can't play checkers against a man playing chess.
(P.S., Joe: The time to send the Schwarbinator up isn't when you "feel" it is, it's in the highest
possible leverage situation. That should have been Schwarber pinch hitting for Ben Zobrist in
the sixth in Game Four with Anthony Rizzo on second and a manageable 4-1 deficit. You could
have sent Jorge Soler out to play left field without risk after that. And if Schwarber connected, it
should have been Chapman in the game for the Indians' seventh. You might have had a four-
all tie to protect a lot more safely then, instead of a 7-1 well you couldn't climb out of. Got the
picture?)
For the Indians:
* Watch Bauer. If he falters early, get that shutdown bullpen calibrated just as early.
* Speaking of the bullpen, starter Danny Salazar, recovered from the injury that took him out of
the Cleveland postseason rotation, should be an option if Bauer falls apart early.
* Watch David Ross, catching for the Cubs today. Lester may be allergic to holding runners on
with throws to first, but Ross is a master of the quick back pick.
* Manager Terry Francona needs to beware emptying his bench too soon. Had Maddon not fallen
asleep at several high-leverage switches in Game Three, Francona's early bench-emptying
could have come back to haunt him.
Game Five coming up . . .
