THIS IS BIG=> DONALD TRUMP Continues Lead in Florida Early Voting

[SirLinksALot]

SOURCE: Gateway Pundit

URL: http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/big-donald-trump-continues-lead-florida-early-voting/

by Jim Hoft


Florida is a must-win state for Donald Trump to declare victory on election day and the good news is that he’s off to a very good start.

In fact, his lead in early voting there is a first for Republicans.
Back in September Trump led Hillary Clinton in early voting.

BREAKING: #Trump the FIRST Republican EVER to win early votes in FL! #TrumpPence16 pic.twitter.com/PzefGCEAfE

— ALWAYS TRUMP! (@Always_Trump) September 23, 2016

Trump still leads Hillary Clinton in Florida early voting.

In 2012 the early voting breakdown was this:
43% Democrats
40% Republicans
17% Other-Independent

This year the early voting breakdown is:
40% Democrat
42% Republican
18% Other-Independent

Trump still leads in Florida two weeks before election day.
This is big news!
Don’t expect the corrupt media to report on this.

[ABX]

Don't you love Gateway Pundit's headlines. They are far from reality.

All this shows is returned early ballots based on party requests. It does not say who they voted for so at this point, we have no clue if they voted for Trump, Hillary, or a third party.

As we know with everything else in this election, we can't assume anything will go along party lines. We saw 12 million registered democrats vote in the Republican primary and most polls show 30-40% of both party's members dissatisfied with their candidate and on the Republican side, 20% + saying they won't vote for Trump.

So the simple answer is, we don't know.

[HAPPY2BME]

Investors.com

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.


Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/

[HAPPY2BME]

TRUMP IS WINNING
https://www.peoplespunditdaily.com/latest-polls/election-2016/us-presidential-election-daily-tracking-poll/

[sinkspur]

 
Adam SmithVerified account
‏@adamsmithtimes
1.2 mil Floridians have voted by mail: 504k Reps, 483k Dems, 220k others. GOP had 5 point mail advantage at this point in 12. Today, 1.7

[HAPPY2BME]

Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0

[Just_Victor]

Investors.com

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.


Trump also holds a nearly one-point lead in a two-way matchup — 43.2% to 42.3%.

http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-up-2-points-nationwide-while-clinton-campaigns-as-if-the-race-is-already-won-ibdtipp-poll/

@HAPPY2BME   Here are todays results for the IBD poll.
http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

[SirLinksALot]

Investors.com

With 16 days to go until November 8, Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 2 percentage points — 43% to 41% — in a four-way race, according to the latest IBD/TIPP presidential tracking poll.

Although IBD/TIPP was one of the most accurate in 2012 and 2008, my issue with them is it is a NATIONAL POLL. How this will be reflected in the electoral college is another thing.

The state by state ( especially the battleground states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado ) votes will determine the winner.

[SirLinksALot]

Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Says Trump Has 87% Chance of Winning


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSNosmQYPs0

He back tested his model to 1912 and it all came out correct EXCEPT 1960.

1960 was when JFK defeated Nixon by a squeaker and many claimed fraud ( in Chicago ). Up to today, there are historians who still claim that Nixon should have been President in 1960 and not 1968....

[SirLinksALot]

Adam SmithVerified account
‏@adamsmithtimes
1.2 mil Floridians have voted by mail: 504k Reps, 483k Dems, 220k others. GOP had 5 point mail advantage at this point in 12. Today, 1.7

Question --- How sure are we that Republicans will vote Trump and not another candidate given his unpopularity?

[sinkspur]

Although IBD/TIPP was one of the most accurate in 2012 and 2008, my issue with them is it is a NATIONAL POLL. How this will be reflected in the electoral college is another thing.

The state by state ( especially the battleground states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado ) votes will determine the winner.

IBD was not the most accurate in 2012.  It was off by three points.

If Trump is leading in this poll, why is it not reflected in any state polls?

[sinkspur]

Question --- How sure are we that Republicans will vote Trump and not another candidate given his unpopularity?

We aren't.  That's why these early turnout stats, while interesting, really don't tell us anything.

[jmyrlefuller]

Question --- How sure are we that Republicans will vote Trump and not another candidate given his unpopularity?

Exactly. Consider even here that people are at least encouraging down-ballot voting to save the Senate. This forum is a testament to the idea that there is a contingent that may be voting Republican but aren't voting for Trump. How large that is will only be determined after the votes are counted.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Um, early voting started a little over four hours ago.  Pretty sure they haven't released results yet.

[ABX]

He back tested his model to 1912 and it all came out correct EXCEPT 1960.

1960 was when JFK defeated Nixon by a squeaker and many claimed fraud ( in Chicago ). Up to today, there are historians who still claim that Nixon should have been President in 1960 and not 1968....

Without knowing the details, here is the big problem I see in this.

This professor made his model in 2012. Then he back-tested it to see how reliable it was.

But to make a model, you have to base that on past trends, where else do you get the data to build the model in the first place?

So back-testing it to 1912 would mean testing it on the data that the model was built on.

It is a self-confirming data cycle. (it is kind of like how Global Warming proponents defend their predictions).

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

Don't you love Gateway Pundit's headlines. They are far from reality.

Yeah, but he almost always uses A LOT OF CAPS!

[massadvj]

I hearn on NPR this morning that early voting in Florida is favoring Republicans, but that the ratio is not as good as it was for Romney four years ago.  It's NPR, so who knows? 

[ABX]

Question --- How sure are we that Republicans will vote Trump and not another candidate given his unpopularity?

I'm a perfect example of this. If I were in Florida, they would see my ballot request but I won't vote for Trump but may assume I would based on past party affiliation.  There are millions like me.

[Victoria33]

@AbaraXas

You have this right. 
This report simply means more Republicans have voted early so far, than Democrats.  It is not known if those Republicans voted for Trump.  Early voting ballots are not counted until election night.  What they did was check the voter's names against a list of those who voted Republican or Democrat in the primary.

[Frank Cannon]

I hearn on NPR this morning that early voting in Florida is favoring Republicans, but that the ratio is not as good as it was for Romney four years ago.  It's NPR, so who knows? 

I'll get you a subscription to Howard Stern for Christmas. You'll walk away knowing more after an hour of him over NPR.

[ABX]

@AbaraXas

You have this right. 
This report simply means more Republicans have voted early so far, than Democrats.  It is not known if those Republicans voted for Trump.  Early voting ballots are not counted until election night.  What they did was check the voter's names against a list of those who voted Republican or Democrat in the primary.

And as we found out from Wikileaks, the Democrats were encouraging members to vote for their chosen 'pied piper' candidate in the Republican primary because Hillary needed and wanted Trump to win.

[SirLinksALot]

IBD was not the most accurate in 2012.  It was off by three points.

If Trump is leading in this poll, why is it not reflected in any state polls?

I stand corrected, but I have to correct you too. IBD/TIPP was the THIRD most accurate in 2012.

But its poll predicted the winner of 2012. It was next only to Pew and Democracy Corps.

[massadvj]

I'll get you a subscription to Howard Stern for Christmas. You'll walk away knowing more after an hour of him over NPR.

All I know for sure is that in every election cycle since Bob Dole in 2008 I have been told by GOP media that the Republican candidate had a chance to win, only to find that the establishment pundits on NPR had it right the whole time.  I try to listen to all sides, though more often than not I want to throw a brick through my radio when I listen to NPR.

I do see nothing but Trump signs all around my area, so maybe there is a big unseen groundswell out there.  It would make me very happy to see Hillary get her butt kicked, though I would have less enthusiasm for a Trump win than some.  Many of my friends will be gleeful, though.  Including many here.

[DCPatriot]

All I know for sure is that in every election cycle since Bob Dole in 2008 I have been told by GOP media that the Republican candidate had a chance to win, only to find that the establishment pundits on NPR had it right the whole time.  I try to listen to all sides, though more often than not I want to throw a brick through my radio when I listen to NPR.

I do see nothing but Trump signs all around my area, so maybe there is a big unseen groundswell out there.  It would make me very happy to see Hillary get her butt kicked, though I would have less enthusiasm for a Trump win than some. Many of my friends will be gleeful, though.  Including many here.

I would be privileged to be considered among them, Victor!     

[Right_in_Virginia]

I hearn on NPR this morning that early voting in Florida is favoring Republicans, but that the ratio is not as good as it was for Romney four years ago.  It's NPR, so who knows? 

Well today thousands of early voters may be on line to attend one of Trump's two rallies .....  ^-^

@massadvj