A new poll shows a tie in Utah. Be skeptical. Be amazed.

[HonestJohn]

By Philip Bump
October 12

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/a-new-poll-shows-a-tie-in-utah-be-skeptical-be-amazed/

The last four polls in Utah suggest something of a pattern.

Public Policy Polling surveyed in the state in mid-August — near Hillary Clinton's peak nationally — and found Donald Trump leading her by 20 points. In early September, UtahPolicy.com released a survey showing Trump with a 15-point lead and introducing independent candidate Evan McMullin, who got 9 percent. In mid-September, the Salt Lake Tribune found that Trump had a nine-point lead over Clinton, with McMullin at 12.

20-15-9. McMullin at 0-9-12. You see where this is going.

On Wednesday morning, Deseret News reported on a new poll in the state from a Utah-based company called Y2 Analytics. Trump's lead in this poll is 0 percent, a tie with Clinton at 26 percent support. McMullin has jumped to 22 percent, within the margin of error, and Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 16.

There's not a lot of polling done in Utah, so it's worth remembering that this is one poll, in isolation. And that said: Dang.

It's fair to assume that there has been a shift in the state in recent days. In the wake of the release of the hot-mic tape from 2005, a number of Republicans called on Trump to step down or revoked their endorsements of him. Many were from centrist districts, but politicians from Utah were a clear outlier, speaking out against Trump despite being from deep-red areas. In the primaries, Trump fared particularly poorly in Utah, a result that was generally attributed to skepticism from Mormon voters.

So what if? What if Trump doesn't win Utah? The electoral math quickly gets tricky.

(more at link)

[LMAO]

I am confident in saying Donald Trump will winUtah but at a much smaller margin  than  past GOP candidates

[jmyrlefuller]

It's amazing that McMullin, who has zero chance of winning on the first electoral ballot, is still polling so well.

If it weren't for he and Johnson splitting the third-party vote, the Utah Wrench would actually be almost a given at this point—38% of people of an entire state voting for a candidate not in the major parties? (And if you think this is a fluke, think again. Johnson and McMullin have combined for at least 25% in other polls as well.)

I'm rooting for McMullin to take Utah and Johnson to take some of the other Western states. As much as I have questions about McMullin's past, and Johnson's policies, either would be preferable to either Clinton or Trump.

Let this be the beginning of a much bigger sea change in American politics.

[libertybele]

It's amazing that McMullin, who has zero chance of winning on the first electoral ballot, is still polling so well.

If it weren't for he and Johnson splitting the third-party vote, the Utah Wrench would actually be almost a given at this point—38% of people of an entire state voting for a candidate not in the major parties? (And if you think this is a fluke, think again. Johnson and McMullin have combined for at least 25% in other polls as well.)

I'm rooting for McMullin to take Utah and Johnson to take some of the other Western states. As much as I have questions about McMullin's past, and Johnson's policies, either would be preferable to either Clinton or Trump.

Let this be the beginning of a much bigger sea change in American politics.

All 3rd party candidate have made amazing progress this election. It would be absolutely wonderful if they deny Trump or Clinton the majority.  Unfortunately, with so much corruption going on I just don't see that happening and even if it did I think the House would still give it to Hillary; especially with Ryan and others refusing to back Trump.

[kevindavis007]

It's amazing that McMullin, who has zero chance of winning on the first electoral ballot, is still polling so well.

If it weren't for he and Johnson splitting the third-party vote, the Utah Wrench would actually be almost a given at this point—38% of people of an entire state voting for a candidate not in the major parties? (And if you think this is a fluke, think again. Johnson and McMullin have combined for at least 25% in other polls as well.)

I'm rooting for McMullin to take Utah and Johnson to take some of the other Western states. As much as I have questions about McMullin's past, and Johnson's policies, either would be preferable to either Clinton or Trump.

Let this be the beginning of a much bigger sea change in American politics.

Well if that happens it is going to the House..

[jmyrlefuller]

All 3rd party candidate have made amazing progress this election.

Well, except for the Greens. They're still stuck at 4%, not much higher than they got with Nader.

[Suppressed]

Well if that happens it is going to the House..

Longshot, but we can hope!

[kevindavis007]

Longshot, but we can hope!

Ditto..

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

All 3rd party candidate have made amazing progress this election. It would be absolutely wonderful if they deny Trump or Clinton the majority.  Unfortunately, with so much corruption going on I just don't see that happening and even if it did I think the House would still give it to Hillary; especially with Ryan and others refusing to back Trump.

I can see the House "comprimising" and giving it to the third party candidate.

The central banks can't keep this economic nonsense going forever.  Set the third party candidate up for the fall, sabotage them at every turn for the next four years, and show the American people that there is no alternative to the Uniparty.

[Suppressed]

I can see the House "comprimising" and giving it to the third party candidate.

The central banks can't keep this economic nonsense going forever.  Set the third party candidate up for the fall, sabotage them at every turn for the next four years, and show the American people that there is no alternative to the Uniparty.

I'd love to see them try. Probably would succeed, but at least it would be a hope!

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

It's amazing that McMullin, who has zero chance of winning on the first electoral ballot, is still polling so well.

If it weren't for he and Johnson splitting the third-party vote, the Utah Wrench would actually be almost a given at this point—38% of people of an entire state voting for a candidate not in the major parties? (And if you think this is a fluke, think again. Johnson and McMullin have combined for at least 25% in other polls as well.)

I'm rooting for McMullin to take Utah and Johnson to take some of the other Western states. As much as I have questions about McMullin's past, and Johnson's policies, either would be preferable to either Clinton or Trump.

Let this be the beginning of a much bigger sea change in American politics.

The moron is splitting the third party vote, possibly giving the state to Hillary.


What an idiot and so are his voters IMO.

[libertybele]

The moron is splitting the third party vote, possibly giving the state to Hillary.


What an idiot and so are his voters IMO.

McMullin is polling at 22% and Johnson at 14%.  I don't see that they are splitting the vote, I see them as possibly denying Hillary or Trump the majority.  I certainly don't see their voters as idiots.  I see them as voting their consciences and refusing to vote for evil!

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-utah-could-pick-neither-trump-nor-1476274050-htmlstory.html

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

McMullin is polling at 22% and Johnson at 14%.  I don't see that they are splitting the vote, I see them as possibly denying Hillary or Trump the majority.  I certainly don't see their voters as idiots.  I see them as voting their consciences and refusing to vote for evil!

http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-utah-could-pick-neither-trump-nor-1476274050-htmlstory.html

22% AND 14% is splitting the vote, hate to tell you.

[Suppressed]

The moron is splitting the third party vote, possibly giving the state to Hillary.


What an idiot and so are his voters IMO.

Yes, Johnson is taking from the third-party vote and he should drop out, but I don't know that McMullin would pick up much of his votes.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Yes, Johnson is taking from the third-party vote and he should drop out, but I don't know that McMullin would pick up much of his votes.

McGuffin is a clown with $3000 in his campaign coffers and 0 name recognition.