By Philip Bump
October 12
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/12/a-new-poll-shows-a-tie-in-utah-be-skeptical-be-amazed/The last four polls in Utah suggest something of a pattern.
Public Policy Polling surveyed in the state in mid-August — near Hillary Clinton's peak nationally — and found Donald Trump leading her by 20 points. In early September, UtahPolicy.com released a survey showing Trump with a 15-point lead and introducing independent candidate Evan McMullin, who got 9 percent. In mid-September, the Salt Lake Tribune found that Trump had a nine-point lead over Clinton, with McMullin at 12.
20-15-9. McMullin at 0-9-12. You see where this is going.
On Wednesday morning, Deseret News reported on a new poll in the state from a Utah-based company called Y2 Analytics. Trump's lead in this poll is 0 percent, a tie with Clinton at 26 percent support. McMullin has jumped to 22 percent, within the margin of error, and Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 16.
There's not a lot of polling done in Utah, so it's worth remembering that this is one poll, in isolation. And that said: Dang.
It's fair to assume that there has been a shift in the state in recent days. In the wake of the release of the hot-mic tape from 2005, a number of Republicans called on Trump to step down or revoked their endorsements of him. Many were from centrist districts, but politicians from Utah were a clear outlier, speaking out against Trump despite being from deep-red areas. In the primaries, Trump fared particularly poorly in Utah, a result that was generally attributed to skepticism from Mormon voters.
So what if? What if Trump doesn't win Utah? The electoral math quickly gets tricky.
(more at link)