Poll: Clinton leads in Ohio

[mystery-ak]

October 05, 2016, 01:07 pm
Poll: Clinton leads in Ohio

By Jonathan Easley

 Getty Images
Hillary Clinton has a slim edge over Donald Trump in the critical battleground state of Ohio, a new poll released Wednesday finds.
 
A Monmouth University survey released Wednesday found the Democratic presidential nominee taking 44 percent support among likely voters, with Trump at 42 percent. Six percent of voters said they’re undecided, and Libertarian Gary Johnson took 5 percent support in the poll.
 
Clinton’s lead is slightly down from August, when she led by 4 points in the same poll.
 
Monmouth’s survey finds Clinton doing better in Ohio than other polls have found.
 
Trump has a 3.4 point advantage in the RealClearPolitics average of Ohio, with seven of the last eight polls of the state showing the GOP nominee with a slim edge.
 
Incumbent Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is running well ahead of Trump in his home state, opening up a 15-point lead over Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, who once served as governor of the state.
 
Portman led by 8 points in the August edition of the poll.
 
Ohio’s 18 electoral votes are likely critical for Trump to have a realistic path to the White House.
 
The poll found Clinton’s support among Hispanic and black voters is softer than President Obama’s in 2012. Obama took 84 percent support among those groups, and Clinton is stuck at 73 percent presently.
 
But Trump has not been able to capitalize on that phenomenon, taking only 15 percent among blacks and Hispanics — about the same as 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney.
 
“You can draw a direct line between Clinton’s relative weakness with the Democratic base and Pres. Obama’s scheduled campaign stop in Cleveland next week,” said Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray.
 
Clinton’s main advantage in the polls is that voters view her as more presidential than Trump.
 
Fifty-nine percent say she has the right temperament for the job, compared to only 33 percent who said the same about Trump.
 
Both candidates have dismal approval ratings in the state, as they do nationally.
 
Clinton is at 35 percent positive and 55 percent negative, while Trump posts a 30/57 split.
 
The Monmouth survey of 405 likely voters in Ohio was conducted between Oct. 1 and 4 and has a 4.9 percentage point margin of error.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/299435-poll-clinton-leads-in-ohio

[ConstitutionRose]

Second poll with Clinton leading in Ohio.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Hoping this is a "lagger". Trump can't win without Ohio, and probably vice versa for Hillary.

[libertybele]

Hoping this is a "lagger". Trump can't win without Ohio, and probably vice versa for Hillary.

This contradicts the reports that Clinton was pulling back because she was losing OH -- perhaps she feels she's winning in OH and redirecting efforts and $$ elsewhere.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

This contradicts the reports that Clinton was pulling back because she was losing OH -- perhaps she feels she's winning in OH and redirecting efforts and $$ elsewhere.

Maybe she's gaining because she pulled back?  She seems to do better the less people see of her.

[skeeter]

Maybe she's gaining because she pulled back?  She seems to do better the less people see of her.

The same is true for Trump. In fact he'd be wise to let his surrogates Giuliani, Conway & Pence do all of his speaking for him from now on. They, in turn, can take away his Twitter account.

What an election.

[andy58-in-nh]

For those who may be interested...

Sample size = 405
 
26.4% R
33.6% D
40.0% I

MOE is claimed to be 4.9%, but it is likely far higher than that, due to selection bias and an unusually high fluidity of the electorate this year.

[geronl]

meanwhile Trumpers tout month-old polls showing him with a bit of a lead