Ohio county, with nearly perfect presidential record, leans Trump

[unknown]

Ohio county, with nearly perfect presidential record, leans Trump

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/presidential/20160930_Ohio_county__with_nearly_perfect_presidential_record__leans_Trump.html

September 30, 2016
Thomas Fitzgerald, POLITICS WRITER
 
PORT CLINTON, Ohio - Every few minutes, the glass door of the Ottawa County Republicans' storefront office would swing open to admit a blast of humid air and another supplicant.

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Over the last 30 elections, Ohio's vote for president has more closely reflected the national voting average than any other state, and it went with the winner every four years from 1964 to 2012, according to elections scholar Kyle Kondik's The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President.

.. snip ..

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

So this county has voted for the national winner in every election from 1964-2012.

It's safe to assume, then, that they got 1960 wrong, otherwise it would have been included in the sample.  This means that they are less than 93% "accurate" over the last 14 elections.

As there are several thousand counties in the US it's surprising not that this one was "nearly perfect", but that there were not several that did better.

[jmyrlefuller]

So this county has voted for the national winner in every election from 1964-2012.

It's safe to assume, then, that they got 1960 wrong, otherwise it would have been included in the sample.  This means that they are less than 93% "accurate" over the last 14 elections.

As there are several thousand counties in the US it's surprising not that this one was "nearly perfect", but that there were not several that did better.

There are two that have done better: Vigo County, Indiana, which has been perfect since 1956 and only missed once since 1912; and Valencia County, New Mexico, which has been perfect since 1952.

[InHeavenThereIsNoBeer]

There are two that have done better: Vigo County, Indiana, which has been perfect since 1956 and only missed once since 1912; and Valencia County, New Mexico, which has been perfect since 1952.

That's interesting info, thanks.

I've seen several articles about this Ohio county over the last two (three?) presidential elections which usually make the claim that it has the best record (but I've never bothered to check out the data myself).

[corbe]

    FINALLY, some good news for the Donald.  It's been looking dismal since the debate.