Trump jumping ahead in Colorado polls, up 3.5%

[unknown]

Trump jumping ahead in Colorado polls, up 3.5%

http://politicalref.com/permalink/16--09-19_trump_leading_CO_poll_average.php

Not only is Trump polling much better than he was in Colorado up until September, but he is actually leading in the state in the two polls taken there in September. In the Emerson poll Trump is up four points, receiving 42 to Clinton's 38. In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump leads by three, 43 to 40.

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[unknown]

This articles uses these two polls for the analysis in CO.

1. Emerson poll          Trump is up 42 to 38
2. Reuters/Ipsos poll Trump is up 43 to 40

[unknown]

The article also references it's Battleground State index, using similar analysis as above.

http://politicalref.com/battleground_index.php

*If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he will likely win Ohio and Florida and win the election. But Trump does not need Pennsylvania to win. This is a constant refrain of pro-Hillary pundits and NeverTrumpers. Trump has realistic chances without Pennsylvania, and the bare minimum states Trump needs to win in each scenario are mapped out here, including the current poll average margin between the candidates using the most recent and reliable polling. Of course Trump could win more than the electoral votes in these scenarios. They are just showing the bare minimum of electoral votes necessary for him to win.

In all battlegrounds, Trump leads by 0.95 points. Trump can win in several scenarios laid out below without Pennsylvania.



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[aligncare]

Ruh oh, unknown. Expect swarms of.....crickets.

[unknown]

Ruh oh, unknown. Expect swarms of.....crickets.

Oh yea. That last one was really fun!

[Just_Victor]

This articles uses these two polls for the analysis in CO.

1. Emerson poll          Trump is up 42 to 38
2. Reuters/Ipsos poll Trump is up 43 to 40

The Emerson poll is included over at Real Clear Politics from Thursday 9-15 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/), but not the Reuters poll.  Is that the unscientific online poll?

[Just_Victor]

Ruh oh, unknown. Expect swarms of.....crickets.

If the lack of enthusiasm for Trump bothers you so much, why are you here?

[sinkspur]

This articles uses these two polls for the analysis in CO.

1. Emerson poll          Trump is up 42 to 38
2. Reuters/Ipsos poll Trump is up 43 to 40

The Emerson poll:

   Data   was   collected   using   an   Interactive   Voice   Response   (IVR)   
system   of   landlines   only.   The   full   methodology   and   results   can   be   found   at   www.theecps.com

Anyone think a poll is reliable that doesn't poll mobile phones?

The Reuters/Ipsos poll is using very small samples and, in this case, the sample is 141 voters.  Most pollsters think it's very odd:

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Nick RiccardiVerified account
‏@NickRiccardi Nick Riccardi Retweeted Seth Masket
The  Reuters-Ipsos poll is unusual by nature and until it's replicated unwise to put much stock in it. #copolitics

Meanwhile:

Yesterday, GOP-aligned pollster Magellan Strategies released polling showing a five-point lead for Clinton in Colorado, which earlier this month a Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll gave Clinton a two-point lead. All of these indicate tightening of the race from mid-August, when Clinton’s lead was in double digits by the consensus of polls at the time.

- See more at: http://coloradopols.com/diary/87276/reutersipsos-in-colorado-trump-43-clinton-41#sthash.9LCqSWqE.dpuf

[aligncare]

...crickets everywhere!

[andy58-in-nh]

Winning Colorado would be one of the (very) few realistic scenarios where Trump could overcome the Democrat electoral vote advantage without winning Pennsylvania. It also assumes Trump victories in FL, NC and OH, all of which have become more likely over the course of the past three weeks. 

Trump's biggest threat right now is not Hillary Clinton, whose mountains of money and permanent campaign infrastructure will certainly help her. His biggest adversaries are his own character flaws and his own big mouth. Tonight's debate could make a great deal of difference, depending on how he comports himself.