By Niall Stanage - 09/21/16 06:00 AM EDT
Hillary Clinton’s campaign and its allies are outspending their Republican counterparts by a factor of about five to one, according to a new analysis released Tuesday.
But the former secretary of State has failed to put away Donald Trump, and many anxious Democrats are baffled as to why the race remains so close.
Part of the reason may be that TV advertising — often the single biggest budget item within a campaign — is losing its effectiveness.
“It’s becoming more difficult to target voters,” said one Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Voters are more cynical about ads because they have seen them for decades. Nothing is as effective as it used to be.”
The analysis published by NBC News on Tuesday, drawing on data from tracking firm Advertising Analytics, found that the Clinton campaign had spent $96.4 million on the airwaves against just $17.3 million from the Trump campaign.
When outside groups supporting Clinton’s candidacy were included, the total spend on her side reached $156.6 million. The comparable figure for all pro-Trump advertising was $33.6 million.
Clinton is a slight favorite in the race, but the huge disparity in spending has failed to break the contest open. Data website FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 56 percent chance of winning as of Tuesday afternoon, while the RealClearPolitics average of national polls showed her with an edge of about 1 percentage point.
Some Republicans argue that the closeness of the race — especially against a candidate with Trump’s vulnerabilities — is evidence of Clinton’s fundamental flaws as a candidate.
“She’s not up more because she’s disliked and distrusted,” said GOP consultant Rick Wilson, who is working with independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin. “With any other candidate than [Clinton], Trump would be down by 25 percent.”
Other experts highlight additional factors. One challenge for any candidate is the degree to which viewing habits have changed, with audiences fragmenting and many young voters, in particular, moving away from traditional TV viewing.
“There is no question that the return on investment for paid advertising continues to degrade from election to election, as it does for commercial TV advertising generally,” said Chris Lehane, a Democratic strategist who served in former President Bill Clinton’s White House and on then-Vice President Al Gore’s 2000 campaign.
Even so, Lehane added, “for many, as inefficient as it is, there is still not a better option in terms of reaching voters, and so there is a default to paid TV advertising.”
This year, there is also the unique nature of Trump’s campaign to consider. The New York businessman has used skills honed over decades as a tabloid staple and a reality TV star to drive media coverage.
During the Republican primary, Trump and his allies were outspent by wide margins by three rivals: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.
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http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/296932-clinton-air-war-fails-to-sink-trump
