A number of state polls released today have shown Trump has gained momentum is several key states. FiveThirtyEight has adjusted their projections and Trump is at his highest chance of winning post convention at around 1/3 odds. Assuming Clinton slips a bit further between now and the debates post healthgate, we would be set up for a very close finish possibly dependent upon the results of the debates.
So engage me here in this thought exercise. Which state is most likely to put him over the top?
My assumptions:
FL: 29 votes
NC: 15 votes
IA: 6 votes
ME #2: 1 vote
OH: 18 votes
NV: 6 votes
All of these states Trump has polled ahead of Clinton, and has a very realistic chance (50% or better) of beating her. Still, he's just a bit short at 272 to 266.
Other possibilities:
New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Colorado
I feel like if any of those states turn, New Hampshire will first because its population demographics are best for Trump. Interestingly, a new poll came out today showing him trailing by only 3 pts in Maine, within margin of error. Winning the state outright would only net him a tie in the electoral college though.