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Author Topic: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?  (Read 1931 times)

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Offline Axel

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Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« on: September 14, 2016, 09:25:35 pm »
A number of state polls released today have shown Trump has gained momentum is several key states. FiveThirtyEight has adjusted their projections and Trump is at his highest chance of winning post convention at around 1/3 odds. Assuming Clinton slips a bit further between now and the debates post healthgate, we would be set up for a very close finish possibly dependent upon the results of the debates.

So engage me here in this thought exercise. Which state is most likely to put him over the top?

My assumptions:

FL: 29 votes
NC: 15 votes
IA: 6 votes
ME #2: 1 vote
OH: 18 votes
NV: 6 votes

All of these states Trump has polled ahead of Clinton, and has a very realistic chance (50% or better) of beating her. Still, he's just a bit short at 272 to 266.

Other possibilities:

New Hampshire
Maine
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Colorado

I feel like if any of those states turn, New Hampshire will first because its population demographics are best for Trump. Interestingly, a new poll came out today showing him trailing by only 3 pts in Maine, within margin of error. Winning the state outright would only net him a tie in the electoral college though.

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Offline Frank Cannon

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #1 on: September 14, 2016, 09:26:59 pm »
The state of confusion.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 09:32:14 pm »
Quote from: Frank Cannon on September 14, 2016, 09:26:59 pm
The state of confusion.
:silly:
I clicked on this thread just to say that and you beat me to it!
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Offline MBB1984

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #3 on: September 14, 2016, 09:35:36 pm »
Best shot is NH. 
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Online mystery-ak

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2016, 09:35:53 pm »
Well it's not gonna be IL....all day my local radio station has been spewing the latest state poll..Clinton 20pts ahead.....folks no way Clinton 20 points ahead even here in Il...she is still running ads here in this so called safe state.
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2016, 09:38:30 pm »
@Axel

In all seriousness, I do not know, but I'd say this:
I think he will have to win FL, PA, and OH, all 3.
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Offline Axel

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2016, 09:39:59 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on September 14, 2016, 09:35:53 pm
Well it's not gonna be IL....all day my local radio station has been spewing the latest state poll..Clinton 20pts ahead.....folks no way Clinton 20 points ahead even here in Il...she is still running ads here in this so called safe state.

Trump did well in Illinois primary, winning Chicagoland. I wouldn't be surprised if he improves on Romney's numbers by several points.
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Offline Axel

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2016, 09:42:34 pm »
Quote from: GrouchoTex on September 14, 2016, 09:38:30 pm
@Axel

In all seriousness, I do not know, but I'd say this:
I think he will have to win FL, PA, and OH, all 3.

I feel like winning PA is actually less likely than winning all the other states.

However, this does give me some hope.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/09/why-democrats-in-western-pennsylvania-are-voting-trump/499577/

Why Democrats in Western Pennsylvania Are Voting Trump

A surprisingly good read from the Atlantic.
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Offline beandog

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2016, 12:56:51 am »
The 58th state, the State of Delusion.
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HonestJohn

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #9 on: September 15, 2016, 01:15:18 am »
Virginia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Florida are going for Clinton.  Bet on it.

There is a good chance that North Carolina will, too.

Arizona and Ohio are a flip of the coin.
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Offline Longmire

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #10 on: September 15, 2016, 02:13:48 am »
Quote from: Frank Cannon on September 14, 2016, 09:26:59 pm
The state of confusion.

Gov. Cannon is a big Trump supporter there.
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Offline Longmire

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #11 on: September 15, 2016, 02:22:56 am »
@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.

If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.

Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!

Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!

« Last Edit: September 15, 2016, 02:23:35 am by Longmire »
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2016, 02:25:57 am »
Quote from: Longmire on September 15, 2016, 02:22:56 am
@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.

If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.

Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!

Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!

Wanna put $100 on it?
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Offline Meshuge Mikey

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2016, 02:33:51 am »
Quote from: Frank Cannon on September 14, 2016, 09:26:59 pm
The state of confusion.


I so WANTED to be the FIRST to post that Prediction!!!
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Offline Longmire

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #14 on: September 15, 2016, 02:57:25 am »
@sinkspur

There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National .

You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.

I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.

So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.   

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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #15 on: September 15, 2016, 03:00:34 am »
Quote from: Longmire on September 15, 2016, 02:57:25 am
@sinkspur

There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National .

You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.

I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.

So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.

Not very confident are you?  $100 that Trump doesn't win.  No?
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Offline Axel

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2016, 03:13:38 am »
Quote from: Longmire on September 15, 2016, 02:57:25 am
@sinkspur

There's plenty of action at Predictit https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Group/67/National .

You can get 2:1 odds for a Trump wins wager, and 3:1 odds for a Trump wins in Michigan or Michigan.

I can also get better than 4:1 odds for a 300 EV or better result...without having to choose which party gets it.

So you'd have to offer some pretty good odds to get me interested in taking your money.

Take him up on it. He thought Romney would win  :laugh:
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Offline Axel

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2016, 03:17:53 am »
Quote from: Longmire on September 15, 2016, 02:22:56 am
@Axel Trump is going to flip the upper mid-west (Wisconsin, Michigan) red, which will make the Democrat lock on eastern PA a moot point.

If he continues on his current path I'll predict he crosses 300 EV on his way to a landslide win.

Trump in Canton: I'm not running for President of the world, I'm running for President of the United States!

Crowd on its feet: USA! USA! USA!

Any scenario of a Trump landslide runs through the Rust Belt. If any of those dominoes fall, the others are shortly behind. The thing is, he has to continue his current momentum. Luckily he has the debates still to come and is sitting in a good spot, all things considered.
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"The Gutter Rat's going to continue to trash Romney, and Romney's going to tell the country why he should be president.

And Romney is going to win" - Sinkspur's incredible insight into the 2012 election

Offline montanajoe

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2016, 07:25:07 am »
The state of insanity.

Flowed closely by the state of desperation...
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Offline Longmire

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2016, 12:53:31 pm »
Quote from: Axel on September 15, 2016, 03:13:38 am
Take him up on it. He thought Romney would win  :laugh:

@Axel Romney never generated excitement like this.

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Offline InHeavenThereIsNoBeer

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #20 on: September 15, 2016, 01:45:00 pm »
Quote from: Longmire on September 15, 2016, 12:53:31 pm
@Axel Romney never generated excitement like this.



I llve in a mostly Conservative, extremely Republican subdivision just outside Tampa.  In 2012, the next street over had a Romney sign in EVERY SINGLE yard.  This Tuesday the first Trump sign went up.

If Romney (supposedly) lost FL...
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Offline Longmire

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Re: Which state is most likely to put Trump over over the top?
« Reply #21 on: September 15, 2016, 02:06:21 pm »
If Romney (supposedly) lost FL...

Considering what Romney has been up to during this cycle it wouldn't surprise me if he conspired to throw the 2012 election.




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