https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/09/01/daily-202-trump-triples-down-on-a-losing-immigration-position-in-phoenix/57c78349cd249a6fa9f8207d/?wpisrc=nl_daily202&wpmm=1 Trump triples down on a losing immigration position in PhoenixBy James Hohmann September 1 at 9:45 AM
THE BIG IDEA: Immigration is a losing issue for Donald Trump, and he’s just spent two weeks talking about it almost every day. After telegraphing repeatedly that he would embrace a more politically palatable position, the Republican nominee used a much-ballyhooed speech in Phoenix last night to make clear that there will be no softening whatsoever. In some key ways, he even hardened his position.
Republicans facing four more years in the wilderness will long recall the raucous rally in Phoenix as a low point of the Trump campaign, perhaps even as the moment that he definitively extinguished his hopes of becoming president.
That feeling will be particularly pronounced because it came at the end of a whirlwind day that might otherwise have been remembered as a triumph.
Many political professionals from both parties privately believed Trump’s trip to Mexico to meet with President Enrique Peña Nieto was a master stroke, an audacious move that made Trump look serious and presidential on a global stage. Rightly or wrongly, even some critics believed that the billionaire projected pragmatism and showed that he could be effective at cutting deals.
But then came Phoenix. In case you missed it, here’s a recap of what Trump said:
He declared that he will build a “Great Wall.” (“On day one, we will begin working on an impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful southern border wall.”)
He insisted “Mexico will pay” for it: “One-hundred percent. They don’t know it yet, but they’re going to pay for the wall.”
He suggested that he’d like to deport his opponent. “Maybe they’ll be able to deport her.”
He said Dwight Eisenhower’s “Operation Wetback” did not go far enough. (He name-checked Ike but did not say what the strategy was called.)
He reiterated that he will indeed create “a deportation task force” and promised to deport two million “criminal aliens” starting on “day one.”
He said undocumented immigrants seeking legal status would first have to leave the country and try to return lawfully. “There will be no amnesty,” he said. “You cannot obtain legal status or become a citizen of the United States by illegally entering our country. Can't do it. ... Anyone who has entered the United States illegally is subject to deportation." He did not use the term "self-deportation," but that's exactly what he called for: "You can call it ‘deport’ if you want. The press doesn't like that term. You can call it whatever the hell you want."
He claimed “countless Americans” are “victims of violence” by illegal immigrants who are “dangerous, dangerous, dangerous criminals”: “We will issue detainers for illegal immigrants arrested for any crime whatsoever.”
He said government has “no idea” how many undocumented immigrants are on U.S. soil: “It could be 30 million.”
“We’re like the big bully that keeps getting beat up,” Trump explained. “We also have to be honest about the fact that not everyone who seeks to join our country will be able to successfully assimilate. Sometimes it's just not going to work out. It's our right, as a sovereign nation to choose immigrants that we think are the likeliest to thrive and flourish and love us.”
-- Bottom line: The deportation priorities Trump laid out in Phoenix could target more than SIX MILLION individuals for IMMEDIATE REMOVAL, according to a thorough analysis by Jose DelReal. “He not only called for removing all undocumented immigrants who had committed crimes, but also said he would prioritize those who have overstayed their visas for deportation. … An estimated 690,000 undocumented immigrants have committed significant crimes that would make them security priorities — felonies or serious misdemeanors — according to a study by the Migration Policy Institute. That number is closer to 2 million according to some, the Center for Immigration Studies, whom the Trump campaign has consulted on the issue. If visa overstays are also included in the immediate priorities, as Trump said … the number would grow by about 4.5 million individuals … In all, the number of individuals prioritized for removal by ICE agents would range between about 5.0 and 6.5 million.”
-- Trump’s speech will make it even harder for him to make inroads with voters he needs in November. Most Americans disagree with his approach. A fresh Fox News poll—which shows Clinton up just 2 points (41-39)—finds that voters, when presented with a choice, back setting up a system for illegal immigrants currently working in the United States to become legal residents over deporting them by a 77-19 margin. Those supporting legalization back Clinton over Trump by 18 points.
-- Several of Trump’s most prominent Latino surrogates say they are reconsidering their support following the speech, according to Politico’s Katie Glueck. “Jacob Monty, a member of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, has resigned, and Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is ‘inclined’ to pull his support. ‘I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump when I believed he was going to address the immigration problem realistically and compassionately,’ said Monty, a Houston attorney who has aggressively made the Latino case for Trump. ‘What I heard today was not realistic and not compassionate.’ He withdrew from the board following Trump’s speech.”
-- It is probably not a good sign for Trump that former KKK leader David Duke and other fans of his in the alt-right liked it so much:
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David Duke @DrDavidDuke
Excellent speech by Donald Trump tonight. Deport criminal aliens, end catch and release, enforce immigration laws & America First.
9:48 PM - 31 Aug 2016
1,019 1,019 Retweets 599 599 likes
-- Many accomplished Republican operatives expressed grave concern that the Phoenix speech will offset whatever bounce Trump might have gotten from Mexico City:
Mitch McConnell’s former chief of staff:
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Josh Holmes @HolmesJosh
Had Donald Trump gone home and watched a re-run of the apprentice tonight he would've resurrected his candidacy. Instead, this...
8:56 PM - 31 Aug 2016
34 34 Retweets 47 47 likes
Jeb Bush campaign’s communications director:
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Tim Miller @Timodc
What was the point of the 2 week hamlet act on immigration if this was end game??
8:51 PM - 31 Aug 2016
44 44 Retweets 88 88 likes
The former RNC Hispanic outreach director:
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Bettina Inclán @BettinaInclan
ughhh.... I was so hopeful after the #TrumpInMexico trip. Please tell me this speech gets a bit better, give me something to work with Trump
9:08 PM - 31 Aug 2016
28 28 Retweets 32 32 likes
The chief strategist on Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign:
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stuart stevens @stuartpstevens
Trump has to do do better than Romney with white voters or non-white. He's doing worse with both.
https://twitter.com/jessekellydc/status/771141676333051904 …
7:33 PM - 31 Aug 2016
28 28 Retweets 76 76 likes
A Republican operative in Texas:
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Matt Mackowiak @MattMackowiak
I promise you: Brooklyn is high-fiving tonight. Nothing about that speech will make them worry politically. The Hispanic vote is gone.
10:43 PM - 31 Aug 2016 · Austin, TX, United States
116 116 Retweets 171 171 likes
-- This is bigger than one election: Trump is causing massive LONG-TERM damage to the Republican brand. We’re not focusing on it right now because we’re 68 days out from an election, but it is hard to overstate what an unmitigated disaster this is for the party in the Sunbelt, the intermountain West and beyond. As I’ve explained before, Trump in 2016 is to the national GOP what Proposition 187 was to the California GOP in 1994.
John McCain and Jeff Flake wisely stayed away from Trump’s event last. Arizona’s senior senator, now that he’s won his primary, must focus on a general election that is only competitive because of Trump. The junior senator is stressing out about 2018 because he knows the demographics.
-- Clinton has been emboldened to redouble her efforts to put Arizona in play. The campaign will spend six figures in the state to air its ad that calls Trump a bad role model.
Clinton’s spokesman elaborated:
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Brian Fallon @brianefallon
Our campaign has a goal to register 3 million new voters. This speech by Donald Trump tonight can only help.
9:27 PM - 31 Aug 2016
511 511 Retweets 917 917 likes
-- Why was Trump’s tone so much different in Mexico City than Phoenix? Here are the three likeliest explanations:
1. The candidate struggles to weigh conflicting advice. Kellyanne Conway, his new manager, wants him to be softer and gentler so he can improve his standing with women. Steve Bannon, the head of Breitbart who is now his campaign CEO, and Stephen Miller, a former aide to Jeff Sessions, crafted last night’s speech.
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Sahil Kapur ✔ @sahilkapur
I think I’ve figured it out:
Morning Trump is Conway Trump.
Evening Trump is Bannon Trump.
9:26 PM - 31 Aug 2016
781 781 Retweets 1,518 1,518 likes
2. Like many politicians, he is intentionally trying to be all things to all people. A chameleon in plaid, you might say.
3. Trump is so desperate that he’s willing to try everything. Dana Milbank writes that the trip to Mexico was a “HAIL MARIA,” and only someone who was losing would try it.
Maggie Haberman and Alex Burns write on the front page of today’s New York Times that close associates have been telling Trump he’s in real danger of losing. “Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who lobbied in favor of the trip to Mexico, has told Mr. Trump that he must make immediate changes to regain his footing … And on Monday, Mr. Trump’s son Eric met with senior officials at the Republican National Committee in Washington and heard a grim prognosis of his father’s campaign … Without a major shake-up of the electoral map, strategists indicated to the younger Mr. Trump, his father’s already narrow path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to win could vanish. Going through the swing states one by one, party officials showed Eric Trump that his father was drastically underperforming other Republicans in the polls."
-- There are conflicting accounts of Trump’s private meeting with Mexico’s president: Trump said at a joint news conference that he and Peña Nieto didn’t discuss who would pay for the wall. Peña Nieto replied later on Twitter: “At the beginning of the conversation … I made it clear that Mexico will not pay for the wall.” Trump spokesman Jason Miller responded with an opaque statement that said “it is unsurprising that they hold two different views on this issue, and we look forward to continuing the conversation.” Peña Nieto spokesman Eduardo Sanchez, asked for clarification, said the president told Trump, “Mexico won’t pay for the wall,” but that Trump did not respond.
-- And there were several inaccurate claims in Trump’s Phoenix speech, via fact checkers Michelle Ye Hee Lee and Glenn Kessler:
Trump’s claim that “illegal immigration costs our country more than $113 billion a year” comes from a dubious report by FAIR, an interest group that wants to dramatically curtail legal immigration.
Trump falsely says Clinton’s plan will provide Social Security to illegal immigrants.
He repeated the falsehood that Clinton plans to bring in 620,000 new refugees from Syria.
Trump lauded two Department of Homeland Security programs that have been widely scrutinized, and it’s questionable how effective they are.
The vast majority of unauthorized immigrants do not fit Trump’s description of aggravated felons, whose crimes include murder.
U.S. Sentencing Commission data show homicides are a small percentage of the crimes committed by noncitizens, whether they are in the U.S. illegally or not.
Illegal immigration flows across the Southern border in fiscal 2015 were at the lowest levels since 1972, except for in 2011.
